Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
309 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...Tropical Storm Watch Remains in Effect for Coastal Panhandle
and Western Big Bend...
...Flash Flood Watch Issued for Florida Panhandle and Western Big
Bend...

.NEAR TERM [Through Sunday]...

Breezy easterly flow will keep a fairly similar pattern for today
with some scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon,
with perhaps slightly lower coverage than previous days due to
some drier air over the region. Even with the drier air, PWs are
still around 1.9 inches so pockets of heavy rainfall will be
possible with the storms today. Luckily the storm motions will
continue to be pretty quick, which will mitigate the flood risk.
While severe weather is not anticipated, a few stronger storms
could produce gusty winds as well. For Sunday, expect a mix of
more diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms over the inland
areas, with some rain bands from Tropical Storm Sally potentially
beginning to push into our local waters and coastal counties.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Night Through Thursday]...

Tropical Storm Sally will continue to push northwestward across
the northeast Gulf of Mexico very slowly through the short term
period. Sally is forecast to become a hurricane before eventually
reaching the north central Gulf Coast Monday night or Tuesday
morning. Tomorrow into midweek several rounds of heavy rainfall
will be possible across the Florida Panhandle and western Big Bend
as a series of rain bands are expected to rotate across the area.
While the heaviest rain appears to remain just offshore, even
slight shifts in the forecast track or rain band positioning could
cause higher totals along the coastal areas. Current forecast has
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches possible across the Florida
Panhandle and western Big Bend through Thursday, with locally
higher amounts possible if the heavier rain bands are able to move
ashore. While this storm total precipitation forecast spans
several days, individual rain bands will be capable of producing
several inches of rainfall within a very short time frame. Flash
flooding will be possible if not likely with these bands,
especially if multiple bands move across the same areas. For that
reason, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the Florida
Panhandle and portions of the western Big Bend for Sunday through
Tuesday evening, and may be extended depending on how the next
couple of days evolve. Some model solutions have Sally slowly
drifting eastward towards our area after landfall, which is
largely why rainfall impacts could extend into Wednesday/Thursday.

Other impacts with Tropical Storm Sally include possible wind
gusts to tropical storm force over our local waters and coastal
regions and the possibility for a few tornadoes, mainly across the
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Minor surge impacts of 2 to 3
feet will also be possible for Apalachee Bay from the Aucilla
River west to Mexico Beach. Surge of 1 to 2 feet will be possible
elsewhere along the coast. A Coastal Flood Advisory will likely be
needed at some point.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Saturday]...

A moist airmass remains in place after Sally's eventual departure,
leading to a return to diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
for the end of the week into the weekend. Although some models do
show a cold front approaching the region at the tail end of the
long term, it's pretty low confidence on whether or not it would
actually reach our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Sunday]

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
region for the remainder of this afternoon, then diminishing after
sunset. VFR conditions are expected away from storms. For late
tonight, a round of MVFR ceilings is expected, then becoming VFR
again by mid to late morning on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
A Tropical Storm watch remains in effect for much of the
northeast Gulf as Tropical Storm Sally is forecast to gradually
strengthen into a hurricane as it slowly pushes northwestward.
While the track of the system is forecast to remain just south of
our area, dangerous winds and seas are expected to begin as early
as tonight and linger into Monday night. Showers, thunderstorms,
and isolated waterspouts will also be possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag conditions are not expected in the foreseeable future.
Unusually wet conditions will prevail Sunday into next week as TD 19
moves through the northern Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Flash flooding will be possible within heavy rain band from Sally
starting tomorrow and lasting into midweek. Rainfall totals of 5
to 10 inches will be possible across the Panhandle and western Big
Bend, with higher amounts possible. While the heaviest rainfall
amounts are expected to remain just offshore, slight changes to
the track could cause even higher rainfall totals over the coastal
regions. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the Florida
Panhandle and portions of the western Big Bend Sunday through
Tuesday evening. While rivers are in good shape at the moment,
heavy rainfall from Sally could cause some river flooding next
week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  88  74  84  73 /  20  80  70  90  70
Panama City   76  88  75  84  75 /  30  80  80  90  80
Dothan        72  88  73  84  72 /  10  70  50  80  60
Albany        73  88  74  87  73 /  10  70  40  70  50
Valdosta      75  87  73  87  72 /  20  80  40  80  50
Cross City    75  88  73  87  72 /  40  90  70  90  60
Apalachicola  77  86  76  83  76 /  50  90  90  90  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Watch for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
     Gulf-South Walton.

     High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Tropical Storm Watch for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico
     Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM...Merrifield
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

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