Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
215 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

.NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday]...

We are still expecting scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon as the sea breeze boundary moves inland
and a weak upper level vort max slides southward.  Boundary
collisions this afternoon could result in some storms briefly
becoming severe with gusty winds the main threat. The SPC has
outlooked portions of the area in a marginal risk for severe storms.
Convection will gradually weaken this evening after sunset, but some
convection will likely linger well into the evening hours. Overnight
lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s.

For Wednesday, similar conditions are expected with plentiful deep
moisture and weak upper level support. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms are expected again during the afternoon hours.
Afternoon highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night]...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected again on
Thursday as PWs remain near or just over 2 inches. Overall storm
motion will be pretty slow with light steering flow. Forecast
soundings show enough instabililty and an inverted V shape with
DCAPE near 1000 J/kg. This along with the slow storm motion will
keep the primary threats as gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Weak
upper support will help drive more widespread coverage, but
overall placement will probably be driven mostly by the seabreeze
and then subsequent boundary collisions. High temperatures on
Thursday are forecast generally in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Patchy fog will be possible in the early mornings, especially in
areas that receive rainfall.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
through the long term period with a little bit better upper level
support Friday into the weekend as a more substantial shortwave
moves slowly across the southeast CONUS. At a minimum, this will
help increase our steering flow and speed up the storm motions,
but could also lead to more widespread convection. By Sunday, a
weak front could sag into our area before stalling, which could
bring a touch drier air into the area and serve as another focus
for showers and storms Sunday into Monday. High temperatures
through the long term are generally in the low to mid 90s each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will produce
occasional restrictions across the area through the late evening
hours. Some brief restrictions due to low clouds and patchy fog
are also possible early Wednesday morning, mainly near VLD.

&&

.MARINE...

Generally benign boating conditions are expected with winds around
10 knots or less and seas near 1 ft. Waterspouts, gusty winds and
locally higher seas will be possible with any showers and
thunderstorms over the next few days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Humid conditions and high rain chances will keep fire weather
concerns low through the week. Patchy fog will be possible in the
mornings, especially in areas that receive rainfall the previous
day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A wetter pattern is expected this week with widespread rainfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall expected over the next 7 days
with locally higher amounts possible. While river flooding is not
expected, some localized areas of minor street flooding are
possible each afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  93  74  91  74 /  40  70  40  80  40
Panama City   78  90  78  90  78 /  30  50  40  60  30
Dothan        74  94  74  92  73 /  40  60  40  80  40
Albany        74  95  75  92  74 /  50  60  50  80  40
Valdosta      73  92  74  89  73 /  60  70  50  80  30
Cross City    74  90  74  91  74 /  50  70  40  70  30
Apalachicola  76  89  78  89  77 /  40  50  40  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM...Merrifield
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

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