Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
125 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Thursday]

Showers and thunderstorms will affect the TAF sites this afternoon
into this evening with all sites having a significant chance of
TSRA. Also expect to see gusty winds as the storms move through
the TAF sites. With lower cigs/vsbys could see even LIFR
conditions with the thunderstorms but should be fairly short
lived. Coverage should decrease overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [922 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be likely this afternoon
and evening as mid level ridging continues to retreat into the
southern Plains and mid level troughing digs into the southeast.
PWATs will approach 2 inches today and with weak shortwave troughs
moving south through the mean flow, the area will experience good
coverage of storms. Some brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds could
occur with the storms. A slightly strong trough will move through
Alabama this afternoon into the overnight which could keep
convection ongoing into the overnight period, especially through our
ALabama and western Florida panhandle counties. With increased cloud
cover this afternoon, highs will reach the low to mid 90s and lows
tonight will drop into the mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]...

The southwestward extending axis of an upper trough along or just
off the Atlantic seaboard will reach it's maximum amplitude on
Thursday before lifting to the northeast through Friday. As it does,
a vort max and closed low get cut off from the mean flow over our
CWA. A surface reflection and deep layer moisture are also present
with this feature. Point soundings from the GFS for Tallahassee show
PW's over 2.0" throughout the period and as high as 2.43" Friday
night. With the nearly saturated soundings the threat of strong to
severe storms would appear very low. However, we will have to
monitor for possible localized flooding from potentially very heavy
downpours. PoPs will be unseasonably high (70-80%) even for July
which is our second wettest month on average. Highs will be in the
upper 80s to around 90 with lows Thursday night in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The latest EURO and GFS diverge on solutions over the extended
period. The EURO keeps the advertised wetter than normal pattern
in place as least through Tuesday before the upper low opens up
and the surface low moves off the southeast U.S. coast while
slowly intensifying. The GFS solution shows the nearly stacked low
pressure system ramping up and moving off the NE FL/SE GA coast
as early as Saturday night. As the surface low continues to
intensify while lifting to the northeast, a much drier airmass
gets pulled down from the resulting northerly flow Sunday through
Monday before a modest amount of moisture returns Tuesday through
Wednesday. To avoid the possibility of flip-flopping with the
holiday weekend forecast we will continue with the wet scenario
and hopefully see some model consensus over the next few runs. If
the EURO wins out, heavy rain may become an increasing concern
through the weekend into early next week.

.MARINE...

Winds will be west 15 knots or less with seas mainly 3 feet or
less through the upcoming weekend.

.FIRE WEATHER...

No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected over the next few
days. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected the next few
days with the unsettled weather pattern persisting into the
weekend.

.HYDROLOGY...

A wet pattern is forecast over the next several days. We'll need to
watch for the potential for heavy rainfall heading into this
weekend, especially given that above average convective coverage is
expected leading up to this weekend. Currently, there are no
significant concerns for flooding, but the pattern bears watching.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  91  73  89  73 /  30  80  50  80  40
Panama City   77  89  77  88  76 /  40  60  60  70  50
Dothan        73  88  72  88  72 /  40  80  50  80  30
Albany        73  90  74  90  73 /  50  80  40  80  30
Valdosta      73  90  73  88  72 /  30  80  40  90  30
Cross City    76  91  74  90  74 /  30  70  50  70  40
Apalachicola  78  89  77  87  77 /  30  50  50  60  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...DVD

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1256 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

ALZ065>067-GAZ142-011745-
Dale AL-Henry AL-Coffee AL-Early GA-
1256 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DALE...HENRY...NORTHEASTERN
COFFEE AND NORTHWESTERN EARLY COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT/1245 PM
CDT/...

At 1256 PM EDT/1156 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles northwest of
Abbeville to 10 miles southeast of Glenwood. Movement was southeast
at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Daleville, Abbeville, Headland, Blakely, Fort Rucker, Ozark,
Enterprise, Midland City, Level Plains, Newton, Ariton, Pinckard,
Grimes, Newville, Napier Field, Haleburg, Mixons Crossroads, Hunt
Field, Waterford and Hooper Stage Field.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 8542 3168 8541 3136 8482 3131 8542
      3130 8542 3127 8576 3162 8611
TIME...MOT...LOC 1656Z 294DEG 37KT 3162 8534 3159 8602

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
110 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 ENE ALLIGATOR POINT   29.92N 84.33W
07/01/2020  M44 MPH          GMZ730             FL   MESONET

            GUST MEASURED AT BALD POINT STATION
            KFLALLIG2.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
114 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

GAZ121>127-142>144-011800-
Worth GA-Miller GA-Randolph GA-Lee GA-Baker GA-Dougherty GA-
Terrell GA-Calhoun GA-Clay GA-Early GA-
114 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MILLER...
DOUGHERTY...SOUTHEASTERN CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH...LEE...
BAKER...CALHOUN...NORTHEASTERN EARLY...TERRELL COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND NORTHWESTERN WORTH COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

At 113 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Weston to near Shellman to
8 miles southeast of Fort Gaines. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Newton, Morgan, Albany, Dawson, Leesburg, Putney, Edison, Arlington,
Shellman, Leary, Smithville, East Albany, Marine Corps Logistics
Base, Turner City, Walker, Douglasville, Warwick, Sasser, Damascus
and Bronwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3187 8434 3192 8434 3191 8392 3185 8394
      3184 8391 3149 8406 3120 8452 3150 8506
      3154 8504 3157 8506 3176 8477 3192 8460
      3192 8445 3196 8444
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 288DEG 30KT 3191 8453 3174 8471 3157 8492

21-WD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
118 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

FLZ007>010-012-108-112-011800-
Coastal Bay FL-Central Walton FL-Holmes FL-Inland Bay FL-
South Walton FL-North Walton FL-Washington FL-
118 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BAY...WALTON...
SOUTHWESTERN HOLMES AND WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM
EDT/100 PM CDT/...

At 117 PM EDT/1217 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Santa Rosa Beach, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Winds up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm along with very
heavy rainfall.

Locations impacted include...
Panama City Beach, Santa Rosa Beach, De Funiak Springs, Eglin Air
Force Base, Live Oak, Freeport, Ponce De Leon, Caryville, Westville,
Ebro, Hinsons Crossroads, Oakwood Hills, Portland, Alpine Heights,
Villa Tasso, Seminole Hills, Blue Mountain Beach, De Funiak Spring
Airport, Seaside and Rock Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 8633 3042 8631 3040 8623 3043 8626
      3043 8625 3038 8616 3039 8611 3044 8616
      3047 8613 3046 8619 3050 8620 3048 8622
      3046 8639 3072 8638 3081 8611 3078 8580
      3022 8583 3038 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1717Z 297DEG 9KT 3043 8618

21-WD