Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
159 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

.NEAR TERM [Tonight Through Tomorrow]...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and propagate
eastward through this evening, centered around a slowly southward
moving surface trough. There is sufficient instability and shear
for strong storms with Mixed Layer CAPE approaching 3k J/kg, and
deep layer Bulk Shear around 25 knots. Precipitable Water values
averaging ~1.8 inches and Downdraft CAPE around 1k J/kg across
much of the area will promote isolated damaging thunderstorm wind
gusts, especially near and to the north of the I-10 corridor.
There is also the potential for isolated, marginally severe hail,
particularly if a storm develops mid-level rotation. Activity
should taper off shortly after sunset.

Benign weather overnight with some clearing. We near saturation
close to ground level and the winds are light/variable. With a
radiation inversion developing, would expect some patchy fog to
develop, especially given the wet stretch of weather recently.

Low to mid-level ridging builds in from the east on Friday with
a drier sounding profile above the surface, compared to today.
A weak surface gradient reinforces the sea-breeze circulation,
which could lead to some showers and thunderstorms, mainly from
the Wiregrass region into the western FL Panhandle. Coverage
will be much more limited compared to today, with the chance of
precipitation limited to 25 pct.

The more limited coverage of precip will also bolster the heat
indices, which could reach 105 degrees over portions of the FL
Panhandle!

.SHORT TERM [Tomorrow Night Through Saturday]...

Upper level ridging coupled with a surface high pressure system
will be over our region on Saturday. These large scale features
will lead to an unseasonably warm day across the region with high
temperatures climbing into the upper 90s. The chance of rain will
be limited given the subsidence provided from the surface high
pressure system, and lack of low level moisture available;
however, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop
late in the afternoon along the sea breeze front as it makes its
way inland. Lows Tomorrow night will be in the low 70s for much of
the region.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

An interesting pattern for the end of June and early July looks to
develop across the western hemisphere. In the early part of this
period, deep layer ridging and subsequent surface high pressure
will continue to linger over our region through Monday. This will
lead to slightly above normal temperatures for highs with upper
90s expected through Monday. Temperatures are expected to slowly
decrease throughout the work week as a southward propagating upper
level low/back door cold front enter the region from the north
east.

This pattern is supported by the development of a negative NAO
blocking pattern across southern Greenland. The current upper
level trough across the Northeast is expected to become stalled
over the next several days over this region as a strong high
pressure system builds over southern Greenland. This is expected
to push the upper level trough southward across the eastern
seaboard by mid week. A possible weak surface low pressure system
may develop off the North and South Carolina coastlines; however,
is unlikely to affect our region.

The overall southward extent of the upper level trough will
however determine the likelihood and coverage of thunderstorm
activity across our region. The closer the trough approaches our
region, the more upper level support/forcing for afternoon
thunderstorm activity is expected. With the ECMWF and GFS model
solutions differing on the upper level troughs evolution in the
day 6-8 time range, I've opted to lower PoPs for the time being
until a more concrete solution is settled on. Overall if this
trend does continue, another wet pattern is likely across our
area next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Friday]

For the remainder of today, MVFR cigs at ECP with VFR elsewhere.
Highest confidence in brief TSRA at ABY, DHN, and VLD along with
the potential for gusts in excess of 20 knots. Could get close
at ECP and VLD, so watch for amendments. Southerly winds at ECP
with westerly winds elsewhere at or below 10 knots. Overnight,
cannot rule out brief MVFR/IFR in low clouds and fog late, but
this should be mainly confined to VLD. VFR conditions expected
Friday with easterly winds at or below 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds less than 10 knots are expected through the weekend as
upper level ridging and subsequent surface high pressure build
over the region tonight and tomorrow. Seas will generally be 1-2
feet through the weekend. Another wet pattern is expected to
return to the region by early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall totals over the last few days around around 1-2 inches
across the region with localized areas seeing 3-4 inches. Local
rivers are currently steady or falling across the region. Forecast
rainfall over the next week are expected to be in the 1-2 inch
range. Given the lack of expected excessive rainfall amounts over
the next week, there are no flooding concerns at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   92  73  96  73  98 /  60  20  10   0  10
Panama City   88  77  92  76  93 /  20  10  10   0  10
Dothan        87  71  92  72  94 /  70  20  20   0  20
Albany        87  73  93  72  96 /  60  30  20   0  20
Valdosta      92  72  93  72  96 /  40  30  10   0  10
Cross City    93  73  98  73  98 /  10  10  10   0  10
Apalachicola  90  76  90  76  91 /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-South
     Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM...Bunker
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Bunker

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
321 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

ALZ065-066-068-069-FLZ007-009-011-252115-
Dale AL-Coffee AL-Geneva AL-Houston AL-Holmes FL-Jackson FL-
North Walton FL-
321 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DALE...SOUTHERN
COFFEE...GENEVA...NORTHWESTERN HOUSTON...NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...NORTH
CENTRAL WALTON AND NORTHERN HOLMES COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 321 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Samson, or 13 miles southeast of Opp, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Daleville, Geneva, Enterprise, Graceville, Fort Rucker, Hartford,
Midland City, Level Plains, Slocomb, Samson, Newton, Pinckard,
Malvern, Clayhatchee, Kinston, Esto, Coffee Springs, Noma, Black and
Kellys Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3138 8620 3132 8551 3083 8551 3083 8560
      3088 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 271DEG 24KT 3120 8605

72-BUNKER

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
535 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

FLZ017-027-252200-
Inland Wakulla FL-Leon FL-
535 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WAKULLA AND
SOUTHEASTERN LEON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 534 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Woodville, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Woodville, Crawfordville, Wakulla, Leon Sinks, Wakulla Springs,
Lutterloh, Bethel, Natural Bridge, Eight Mile Pond and Vereen.

LAT...LON 3021 8437 3036 8440 3038 8413 3023 8411
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 266DEG 18KT 3030 8426

72-BUNKER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
541 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

FLZ016-017-026-252215-
Liberty FL-Gadsden FL-Leon FL-
541 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GADSDEN...NORTHEASTERN
LIBERTY AND CENTRAL LEON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 541 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles south of Greensboro to near Midway.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Quincy, Midway, Tallahassee, Lake Talquin, Littman, Florence,
Scotland, Maclay State Gardens, Gibson, Fort Braden, Tallahassee Coml
Airport, Santa Clara, Shady Rest, Lake Jackson, Quincy Airport,
Wetumpka, Sawdust, Forest Meadows Park and Douglas City.

LAT...LON 3035 8447 3054 8423 3063 8458 3046 8485
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 283DEG 20KT 3043 8477 3056 8446

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
600 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

FLZ017>019-027-028-127-252230-
Inland Taylor FL-Coastal Wakulla FL-Inland Jefferson FL-Madison FL-
Inland Wakulla FL-Leon FL-
600 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WAKULLA...
NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR...SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...SOUTHEASTERN LEON AND
SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 600 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Crawfordville to near Woodville to 15
miles northwest of Perry. Movement was east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Crawfordville, Woodville, St. Marks, Wakulla, Newport, Cody,
Shadeville, Hells Half Acre, Leon Sinks, Wakulla Springs, Lamont,
Eridu, Cabbage Grove, Eight Mile Pond, Thomas City, Wacissa, Wacissa
Springs, Bethel, Natural Bridge and Sirmans.

LAT...LON 3018 8364 3020 8408 3009 8447 3029 8453
      3039 8420 3041 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 282DEG 10KT 3024 8441 3031 8420 3028 8375