Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
252 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Organized line of convection will cross portions of SE Alabama and
SW Georgia through the early evening. Convection is associated
with a trough extending from the upper low in the Arklatex region.
Deep layer shear will increase to 35-40 knots with the convection,
supporting a risk of damaging winds. Elsewhere, convection is
expected to remain weaker and more scattered in nature. While the
convective line will likely maintain itself for several hours
after sunset, the remaining convection should diminish quickly
this evening.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday through Friday night]...
Upper low will slowly slide eastward on Friday and open up in to a
trough. Deep southwesterly flow will remain in place across the
region, which will keep rain chances elevated. Marginal deep layer
shear (around 30 knots) will support isolated strong storms,
especially across SE Alabama and SW Georgia.

The wet pattern will continue into Friday as the trough axis moves
into the region. Plenty of deep moisture will remain available for
convection. However, the severe threat should be diminished as the
deep layer shear is expected to weaken significantly.

.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Drier conditions will gradually develop through the weekend as the
upper trough axis shifts east of the forecast area and the deeper
layer flow becomes northwesterly. PoPs will generally be confined
to the eastern zones on Saturday, with very little coverage
expected by Sunday. The dry conditions should continue into the
first half of next week. Temperatures will remain seasonably warm
through the period, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Thursday]
Scattered thunderstorms have the potential to impact all terminals
through the afternoon and early evening hours. Strongest storms
are most likely near KDHN and KABY. Overnight, VFR cigs are likely
once again, which will linger into the mid morning hours on
Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop again on
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside of scattered thunderstorms, winds and seas are expected to
remain low through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are not expected through the next several
days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Local rivers are mostly steady. A wet pattern will be in place
through the end of this week with periods of heavy rain possible,
especially on Friday. After that, we will see mostly dry conditions
beginning Sunday and continuing into early next week. There are no
flooding concerns at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   70  89  69  87  68 /  20  50  20  70  10
Panama City   74  87  73  85  72 /  20  30  30  60  10
Dothan        69  88  68  85  67 /  50  30  20  70  20
Albany        71  88  70  84  68 /  50  40  20  70  20
Valdosta      70  89  69  85  67 /  20  70  20  80  20
Cross City    71  89  70  88  69 /  10  50  20  70  20
Apalachicola  74  85  73  83  72 /  20  40  30  60  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Camp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
241 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

FLZ007-272030-
North Walton FL-
241 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WALTON COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM CDT...

At 240 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Crestview, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eglin Air Force Base, Liberty, Paxton, Gordon, Pond Creek, Cluster
Springs, Fox Hill, Sand Hill, Glendale, Lakewood, Flowersville, New
Harmony, Mossy Head and Caney Creek.

LAT...LON 3099 8639 3100 8638 3099 8619 3084 8605
      3071 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 244DEG 19KT 3080 8647

25-CAMP