Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
248 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...SQUALL LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO ENTER FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Severe QLCS has entered southern Alabama moving towards our western
CWA over the next several hours. The atmosphere is ripe for this
line to continue its severe characteristics as it reaches SE AL and
the western FL panhandle. SPC has continued the enhanced risk for
this area with the main threat of damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes. Time of arrival into these areas will be later this
afternoon and early evening. There is also development ahead of the
line as well so will need to watch this closely for any development.

The dynamics will move north and slowly away from the area this
evening and overnight at which time the best lift moves with it.
Instability will decrease but good shear will remain. The line will
slowly weaken as it makes it into Albany/Tallahassee areas but still
should remain strong to severe. Timing into these areas will be
early evening into the overnight hours. The line is progged by the
models to move against the ridge and weaken further and possibly
begin to fall apart as it reaches our eastern sections in the
overnight hours.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday through Monday night]...

By 12Z Sunday, the potent short wave will will have lifted into the
northeastern states as another rotates into the Great Plains. These
impulses will be kept away from our forecast area by deep-layer
ridging to our southeast. As the forcing flees northeastward, the
cold front will rather abruptly come to a halt about half to 2/3 of
the way across our forecast area by daybreak. It will then retreat
northwestward as a warm front all the way to the Tennessee Valley by
12Z Tuesday. This pattern will keep temperatures well above normal
with highs mainly in the 70s and lows around 60 or so. A few spots
will reach 80 degrees Sunday and Monday south and east of
Tallahassee and Valdosta. The warm humid air mass and proximity of
the front will result in scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the forecast area Sunday. By Monday, highest
PoPs will be across our northern zones as the front retreats.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Deep layer ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will keep temperatures
well above seasonal levels all week with high ranging from the
mid 70s to around 80 degrees. The front will push back south
toward the area and then stall over or just south of us on Friday.
The warm, humid air mass and return of the front will keep PoPs
in the forecast all week with greater chances north than south.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Sunday]

Gusts from the southeast continue and only to get stronger through
this afternoon and evening hours ahead of a severe QLCS currently
entering south Alabama. Used the HRRR and consensus models to
determine timing of the line. There could be showers and storms
ahead of the line as well and kept VCSH for this purpose. Winds
could be in excess of 50 knots in storms along the line.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong onshore flow ahead of a front will bring occasional gale-force
gusts into the early evening. Winds will diminish quickly overnight
as a front briefly enters the waters. Once the front retreats, light
southeast winds will persist for a couple of days with another wind
shift possible later in the week as the front returns to the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A line of strong to severe storms will move through the area this
afternoon and into tonight. Transport winds ahead of this line are
around 40 MPH with mixing heights staying below 2000ft. There are no
fire weather concerns and fog is not forecast at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Although we will be in an unsettled pattern, rainfall totals will
not be sufficient for any flooding concerns beyond the typical
ponding of water on roadways and low-lying areas that is seen during
stronger thunderstorms. As for the rivers, depending on releases
from Woodruff Dam, the Apalachicola River may reach minor flood state
once again early next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or
tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   61  76  61  79  59 /  80  50  20  20  20
Panama City   59  74  64  76  64 /  90  40  40  30  20
Dothan        55  70  63  76  62 /  90  40  50  50  30
Albany        60  73  63  79  62 /  90  60  30  40  30
Valdosta      65  78  62  79  61 /  60  50  10  30  20
Cross City    63  81  62  81  60 /  30  20  10  10  10
Apalachicola  62  73  64  73  62 /  80  30  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-
     Inland Gulf-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North
     Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday for Coastal
     Bay-South Walton.

GA...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-
     Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-
     Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Wind Advisory until 11 PM CST this evening for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 4
     AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday for Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for Coastal
     Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
     Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...Wool

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
609 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NE NAPIER FIELD       31.32N 85.45W
01/11/2020  M64 MPH          DALE               AL   ASOS

            SUSTAINED 48-MPH WINDS (GUSTED TO 64 MPH) AT
            KDHN.

&&

IG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
616 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW CENTER RIDGE       30.78N 86.11W
01/11/2020                   WALTON             FL   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREE DOWN AT 83 INSTITUTION RD.

&&

IG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
620 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW HOPE                30.95N 85.88W
01/11/2020                   HOLMES             FL   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            THREE TREES AND ONE POWERLINE DOWN.

&&

IG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
621 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BONIFAY                 30.79N 85.68W
01/11/2020                   HOLMES             FL   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ONE TREE DOWN.

&&

IG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
626 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W DOTHAN              31.23N 85.43W
01/11/2020                   HOUSTON            AL   PUBLIC

            STOPLIGHTS BLOWN OFF FROM WIRES ON US-84 AND
            WESTGATE PKWY.

&&

IG

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