River Flood Warning 57, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
914 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2020

.UPDATE...

The 12z KTAE sounding is quite moist indeed with a precipitable
water value of 2.27 inches. Made some adjustments to PoPs to account
for current radar trends this morning, but overall, the theme of the
previous forecasts still holds true. Fairly widespread coverage of
showers and thunderstorms is expected today with locally heavy rain
amounts given the deep tropical airmass in place. Kept mention of
heavy rain in the point and click from the previous forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [652 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Weak upper level troughing continues to our west and northwest. At
the surface, a west to east ridge axis extends from the western
Atlantic across the Gulf. These two features will help to funnel
tropical moisture into our area today on deep southwest flow.

Time-height cross sections show this moisture increase along with a
few mid/upper level impulses. This combined with daytime heating
will aide in the generation of widespread convection. Some of the
rain may be heavy at times. Forecast PW's across the local area
generally range between 2.0" and 2.30". Convection will diminish
later this evening but will hold on to a 20% PoP until just after
midnight. With the increasing cloud cover and elevated rain chances,
temperatures will be held down just a bit. Highs will be in the
upper 80s with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday through Thursday]...

By Wednesday, remnants of Cristobal will have completed
extratropical transition in Canada. A short wave trough will slip
south of this feature before lifting northeastward as well. A weak
vort lobe will swing across our area on Thursday. The attendant cold
front will be crossing the Lower Mississippi Valley at the start of
the period. It will move southeastward and begin to slow down as it
approaches our forecast area Wednesday night. It does appear that
the front will at least make it into our northwest zones on
Thursday. Ahead of the front on Wednesday, it will be seasonably hot
and humid with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
developing in the afternoon. Pops will be highest to the northwest,
closer to the frontal forcing and DPVA and taper off toward the
coast. SPC has our northwestern zones in a marginal risk for severe
storms. Sufficient instability will be present, but shear will be a
limiting factor. Peak heat indices will be around 100 across the Big
Bend and in the upper 90s elsewhere. The lucky counties that get
FROPA on Thursday will see dew points drop into the mid to upper
60s. PoPs will be highest ahead of the front and taper off to the
west.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The front will essentially stall over the region with less humid
conditions and lower PoPs across our western zones, while eastern
zones continue to feel like June with more humidity and greater
convective coverage. However, even our eastern zones should see only
isolated coverage for Sunday and Monday.

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]

A brief period of MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys until around 14z with VFR
conditions returning at all terminals. Rain and thunderstorms
will increase in coverage during the day with periods of MVFR
cigs/vsbys possible in some of the heavy downpours. MVFR
conditions will return late in the TAF cycle.

.MARINE...

Light to moderate onshore winds will continue ahead of the
front.. Some of the Panhandle waters could see a period of light
offshore flow once frontal passage occurs Thursday into Friday. An
easterly flow regime will set up for the weekend.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from possible high dispersion on Wednesday, there are
no other fire weather concerns for the next several days.

.HYDROLOGY...

Most areas will see 3-day rainfall totals of 1-1.5 inches, not
enough to cause any new flooding. However, rain rates will be
efficient in this tropical air mass, so localized flooding cannot
be ruled out. Area rivers are rising from recent heavy rains, but
forecast to remain below flood stage at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   88  73  90  72  92 /  80  20  50  20  50
Panama City   86  77  87  75  90 /  70  20  50  30  20
Dothan        88  74  88  69  88 /  80  20  80  30  30
Albany        88  74  90  73  90 /  80  20  70  30  40
Valdosta      88  72  90  71  90 /  80  20  60  20  60
Cross City    88  73  91  72  91 /  40  20  50  10  50
Apalachicola  85  76  86  75  87 /  80  20  30  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Wool