Alert archive / Georgia / River Flood Warnings in 2020

River Flood Warning 28, NWS Tallahassee, FL

March 4, 2020Lee County, Georgia

NWS Tallahassee, FL issued this river flood warning at Mar 4, 2020, 2:56 PM EST for Lee County, Georgia. It took effect at Mar 5, 2020, 6:35 AM EST. It was in force for 67 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 4, 2020, 2:56 PM EST (19:56 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 5, 2020, 6:35 AM EST
Expired
Mar 8, 2020, 1:20 AM EST
In force
67 hr
Issued by
NWS Tallahassee, FL
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

County Lee County, GA

The radar

The Robins AFB radar (KJGX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195) (MCKG1).

Action stage
11 ft
Minor stage
13 ft
Moderate stage
15 ft
Major stage
17 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02351890, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

343 
WGUS42 KTAE 041956
FLWTAE
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
256 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020

...The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a Flood 
Warning for the following rivers in Georgia... 

  Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195) affecting Lee County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

GAC177-051954-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FL.W.0028.200306T0600Z-200308T2300Z/
/MCKG1.1.ER.200306T0600Z.200307T0600Z.200308T1100Z.NO/
256 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a 

* Flood Warning for the Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195).
* From late Thursday night, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 10.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: Rise above flood stage by Friday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 13.5 feet by Saturday morning.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Water will cross North Hampton Road in the 700
  block. Additional inundation occurs along the creek further 
  downstream. 

&&

LAT...LON 3191 8418 3179 8412 3162 8407 3162 8415 3180 8419 3191 8427


$$
11 follow-up statements
264 
WGUS82 KTAE 050243
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
943 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
 
  Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195) affecting Lee County 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

GAC177-060242-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0028.200305T1930Z-200309T1100Z/
/MCKG1.1.ER.200305T1930Z.200306T1800Z.200308T2300Z.NO/
943 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Monday morning...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  the Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195).
* From Thursday afternoon, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 11.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: Rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 13.9 feet by Friday evening. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Sunday evening.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Water will cross North Hampton Road in the 700
  block. Additional inundation occurs along the creek further 
  downstream. 

&&

LAT...LON 3191 8418 3179 8412 3162 8407 3162 8415 3180 8419 3191 8427


$$
027 
WGUS82 KTAE 050517
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1217 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
 
  Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195) affecting Lee County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

GAC177-060516-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0028.200305T1200Z-200309T0500Z/
/MCKG1.1.ER.200305T1200Z.200306T1800Z.200308T1700Z.NO/
1217 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195).
* From this morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 11:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 12.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: Rise above flood stage by this morning and continue to 
  rise to near 14.3 feet by tomorrow early afternoon. The river will 
  fall below flood stage by Sunday early afternoon.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Water will cross North Hampton Road in the 700
  block. Additional inundation occurs along the creek further 
  downstream. 

&&

LAT...LON 3191 8418 3179 8412 3162 8407 3162 8415 3180 8419 3191 8427


$$
476 
WGUS82 KTAE 051135
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
635 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
 
  Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195) affecting Lee County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

GAC177-061135-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0028.200305T1135Z-200308T2030Z/
/MCKG1.1.ER.200305T0821Z.200306T1200Z.200308T0830Z.NO/
635 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195).
* From this morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  5:45 AM Thursday the stage was 13.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 14.7 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact: At 15.0 feet: Several homes in subdivisions along the creek 
  in the vicinity of Forrester Parkway and further south to the 
  Dougherty County line will flood. 

&&

LAT...LON 3191 8418 3179 8412 3162 8407 3162 8415 3180 8419 3191 8427


$$
056 
WGUS42 KTAE 051459
FLWTAE
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
959 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020

...Forecast Flooding Changed from Minor to Moderate Severity for the 
following rivers in Georgia...
  
  Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195) affecting Lee County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

GAC177-061458-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-200308T2030Z/
/MCKG1.2.ER.200305T0821Z.200306T0600Z.200308T0830Z.NO/
959 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
The Flood Warning continues for the Muckalee Creek near
Leesburg (SR 195).
* Until Sunday afternoon.
* At  9:45 AM Thursday the stage was 14.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 15.9 feet by 
  late Thursday night. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact: At 15.0 feet: Several homes in subdivisions along the creek 
  in the vicinity of Forrester Parkway and further south to the 
  Dougherty County line will flood. 

&&

LAT...LON 3191 8418 3179 8412 3162 8407 3162 8415 3180 8419 3191 8427


$$
570 
WGUS82 KTAE 052030
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
330 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
  Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195) affecting Lee County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

GAC177-062029-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-200308T2030Z/
/MCKG1.2.ER.200305T0821Z.200306T0000Z.200308T0830Z.NO/
330 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195).
* Until Sunday afternoon.
* At  3:00 PM Thursday the stage was 15.7 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 16.0 feet by this
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday morning.
* Impact: At 17.0 feet: Water will reach the bottom of the highway 195
  bridge. Significant flooding occurs along the creek from east of 
  Leesburg to the Dougherty County line affecting numerous 
  subdivisions. 

&&

LAT...LON 3191 8418 3179 8412 3162 8407 3162 8415 3180 8419 3191 8427


$$
949 
WGUS82 KTAE 060219
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
919 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
 
  Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195) affecting Lee County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

GAC177-070218-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-200308T1800Z/
/MCKG1.2.ER.200305T0821Z.200306T1200Z.200308T0600Z.NO/
919 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195).
* Until Sunday afternoon.
* At  9:00 PM Thursday the stage was 16.4 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue rising to near 16.7 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage early 
  Sunday morning.
* Impact: At 17.0 feet: Water will reach the bottom of the highway 195
  bridge. Significant flooding occurs along the creek from east of 
  Leesburg to the Dougherty County line affecting numerous 
  subdivisions. 

&&

LAT...LON 3191 8418 3179 8412 3162 8407 3162 8415 3180 8419 3191 8427


$$
702 
WGUS82 KTAE 061439
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
939 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
  Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195) affecting Lee County 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

GAC177-071439-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-200308T1800Z/
/MCKG1.2.ER.200305T0821Z.200306T0315Z.200308T0600Z.NO/
939 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195).
* Until Sunday afternoon.
* At  9:30 AM Friday the stage was 15.7 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  early Sunday morning.
* Impact: At 15.0 feet: Several homes in subdivisions along the creek 
  in the vicinity of Forrester Parkway and further south to the 
  Dougherty County line will flood. 

&&

LAT...LON 3191 8418 3179 8412 3162 8407 3162 8415 3180 8419 3191 8427


$$
644 
WGUS82 KTAE 070141
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
841 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
 
  Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195) affecting Lee County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

GAC177-080140-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-200308T2030Z/
/MCKG1.2.ER.200305T0821Z.200306T0315Z.200308T0830Z.NO/
841 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Sunday afternoon...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  the Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195).
* Until Sunday afternoon.
* At  7:45 PM Friday the stage was 14.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Sunday morning.
* Impact: At 15.0 feet: Several homes in subdivisions along the creek 
  in the vicinity of Forrester Parkway and further south to the 
  Dougherty County line will flood. 

&&

LAT...LON 3191 8418 3179 8412 3162 8407 3162 8415 3180 8419 3191 8427


$$
684 
WGUS82 KTAE 071413
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
913 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
 
  Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195) affecting Lee County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

GAC177-081413-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-200308T2300Z/
/MCKG1.2.ER.200305T0821Z.200306T0315Z.200308T1100Z.NO/
913 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Sunday evening...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  the Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195).
* Until Sunday evening.
* At  8:45 AM Saturday the stage was 13.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow morning.
* Impact: At 14.0 feet: Water will cross North Hampton Road in the 700
  block. Additional inundation occurs along the creek further 
  downstream. 

&&

LAT...LON 3191 8418 3179 8412 3162 8407 3162 8415 3180 8419 3191 8427


$$
101 
WGUS82 KTAE 080218
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
 
  Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195) affecting Lee County 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

GAC177-082030-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-200308T2030Z/
/MCKG1.2.ER.200305T0821Z.200306T0315Z.200308T0830Z.NO/
918 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195).
* Until Sunday afternoon.
* At  8:45 PM Saturday the stage was 13.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  early tomorrow.
* Impact: At 13.0 feet: Substantial lowland flooding will occur along 
  the creek. Water will flood one residence on North Hampton Road. 

&&

LAT...LON 3191 8418 3179 8412 3162 8407 3162 8415 3180 8419 3191 8427


$$
432 
WGUS82 KTAE 080620
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
120 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2020

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...
 
  Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195) affecting Lee County


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interest along the river should monitor the latest 
forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect 
life and property. Do not drive cars through flooded areas. If you 
see flood waters: Turn around. Don't drown.

For graphical hydrologic information, please go to weather.gov and 
click on your state. Select Rivers and Lakes AHPS under current 
conditions and click on your river point.

&&

GAC177-080650-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-200308T2030Z/
/MCKG1.2.ER.200305T0821Z.200306T0315Z.200308T0520Z.NO/
120 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Muckalee Creek near Leesburg (SR 195).
* At 12:45 AM Sunday the stage was 12.9 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at 12:20 AM Sunday.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will continue to fall to 12.2 feet by tomorrow 
  morning.
* Impact: At 13.0 feet: Substantial lowland flooding will occur along 
  the creek. Water will flood one residence on North Hampton Road. 

&&

LAT...LON 3191 8418 3179 8412 3162 8407 3162 8415 3180 8419 3191 8427


$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Mar 4, 12:53 PM EST, 2 hours 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 4, 12:53 PM EST, 2 hours 3 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1253 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Thursday]

This is a tricky set of TAFs as a stationary front is draped over
DHN & ABY this afternoon and expected to linger thru tonight into
tomorrow. SHRA/TSRA (some capable of producing severe weather)
are moving along the boundary. Most terminals are currently
seeing MVFR/IFR conds, but the front's presence will cause
frequent fluctuations in cigs/vsbys, so amendments are
inevitable. Rain/storm chances remain high on Thurs w/LLWS of
30-35 kts at 2000 ft forecast for all terminals around 12z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1009 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Today Through Tonight]...

WSW flow aloft will prevail today as two shortwaves move through the
elongated positively tilted longwave trough. At the surface, a
mostly stationary frontal boundary will strengthen with the passage
of the northernmost shortwave and a reenforcement of the cooler
airmass north of the front. At the same time, increasing southerly
low-level flow will result in greater WAA south of the frontal
boundary. This is a classic setup for a heavy rain potential with
low-level convergent flow against a stationary boundary and more
boundary parallel flow aloft. The challenge will be pinpointing the
exact location of the front and subsequently where the axis of heavy
rain will setup. In general, the potential for the heaviest rain
will be across southern AL and GA with widespread average amounts
around 3". Isolated amounts may reach up to 5 inches. In addition to
the potential for heavy rain is the potential for severe
thunderstorm development. Along and south of the warm front,
supercell development will bring the threat for all modes of severe
weather (damaging winds, hail, tornadoes). As storms move north of
the warm front, elevated instability will allow for storms to remain
robust, though the threat will shift to primarily large hail as
storms are no longer surface based. The threat for severe weather
and heavy rain will decrease through the evening and overnight as
instability wanes, the plume of steep lapse rates advects east, and
low-level convergence along the front decreases.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]...

Thursday morning the surface low is forecast to be over the
north-central Gulf just southwest of Mobile with a warm front
arcing northeastward across SE AL and then cutting west to east
roughly midway across our GA zones. The low is forecast to move
inland over the panhandle mid to late morning and move east of our
CWA by late afternoon/early evening dragging a southwestward
extending cold front with it. The threat for severe weather
continues on Thursday for our entire CWA, but especially for areas
within the warm sector. Forecast model soundings in the warm
sector show looping hodographs with sfc-1km helicity values ~ 200
m2/s2, bulk shear (sfc-6km) around 60kts and MU CAPE between 900
and 1000 J/KG. The greatest severe threat will be damaging
straight line winds with the potential for a few tornadoes. Also,
PW's will be around 2" so some of the rain will be heavy at times
especially for the areas in the Flash Flood Watch. For a
discussion on the heavy rain potential during the near/short term
period, please refer to the hydrology section in this forecast
discussion.

Rain will be ending from west to east Thursday afternoon/evening
with the passage of the cold front. A cooler and drier airmass will
filter into the region on northerly winds Thursday night/Friday.

.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

A period of cooler and dry conditions can be expected through the
weekend as surface high pressure settles into the southeast. Upper
level ridging briefly builds in on Monday before the next shortwave
and cold front move in on Tuesday bringing with it our next chances
for rain. Temperatures also return to near seasonal levels for
Tuesday and Wednesday.

.MARINE...

Moderate southerly winds will increase to at least cautionary
levels Thursday as a strong cold front approaches. Showers and
thunderstorms will proceed the front and some storms may become
strong to severe. Winds will be strong and northerly Thursday
night after the cold front passes with advisory level conditions
likely at least through the end of the work week.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Wet conditions are expected through Thursday with drying then
expected through early next week. At this time, however, Red Flag
conditions are not expected over the next week.

.HYDROLOGY...

With the potential for heavy rainfall across much of the region, a
flash flood watch has been issued through Thursday. Model guidance
has been in good agreement that the heaviest rain should set up
across Southern Alabama and South Georgia. Rainfall amounts of 3 to
5 inches is expected with isolated maximum totals near 8 inches
within the flash flood watch area. Even though the rainfall will be
spread out over a couple of days, with much of the rainfall being
convective, the high rainfall rates will promote the flash flood
potential. In the days ahead, the focus will shift to river
flooding.

The rainfall distribution in this event makes many of our rivers
vulnerable to flooding, especially when many of these rivers are
running above normal from flooding last week. The Apalachicola,
Chattahoochee, Flint (ACF) system is the most vulnerable to
flooding with this system. Some of the ensembles suggest that
moderate flooding is possible in the ACF basin, particularly
within the Flint River system, including the Kinchafoonee Creek
north of Albany.

For detailed information on specific river stages and forecasts,
please visit http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
However, users are reminded that the river forecasts only include
the first 48 hours of rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   61  75  50  67  39 /  70 100  10   0   0
Panama City   62  73  52  67  42 /  80  90   0   0   0
Dothan        56  65  45  63  37 /  90  90   0   0   0
Albany        55  62  44  62  36 /  90 100  10   0   0
Valdosta      60  73  48  65  38 /  70 100  10   0   0
Cross City    66  75  53  69  39 /  30  90  20   0   0
Apalachicola  66  72  53  65  42 /  60  90   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Central Walton-
     Holmes-Jackson-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-
     Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-
     Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...IG
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Godsey

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 4, 11:03 AM EST, 3 hours 53 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1103 AM EST WED MAR 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNW CENTERVILLE       31.32N 84.92W
03/04/2020                   EARLY              GA   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN BLOCK THE ROAD ON MAYS MILL ROAD.

&&

LN
Local storm report, Mar 4, 11:06 AM EST, 3 hours 50 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1106 AM EST WED MAR 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE SAWHATCHEE        31.26N 84.99W
03/04/2020                   EARLY              GA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN ALONG CEDAR SPRINGS ROAD.

&&

LN
Local storm report, Mar 4, 11:17 AM EST, 3 hours 39 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1117 AM EST WED MAR 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW NAPIER FIELD       31.33N 85.47W
03/04/2020                   DALE               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 112 AS WELL
            AS A RAILROAD CROSSING GATE DOWN. TREES DOWN
            IN THIS AREA AS WELL.

&&

LN
Local storm report, Mar 4, 12:16 PM EST, 2 hours 40 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1216 PM EST WED MAR 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CUTHBERT                31.77N 84.79W
03/04/2020                   RANDOLPH           GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            *** 1 INJ ***
            MULTIPLE HOMES WITH TREES ON THEM, TREES AND
            POWER LINES DOWN ALL OVER THE CITY.

&&

LN
Special weather statement, Mar 4, 1:37 PM EST, 1 hour 19 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
137 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020

GAZ158>160-041900-
Brooks GA-Lowndes GA-Thomas GA-
137 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 136 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles west of Hahira to 9 miles south of Pavo
to near Boston. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Quitman, Valdosta, Hahira, Boston, I-75 At Exit 16, Moody Air Force
Base, Remerton, Morven, Barwick, Dixie, Barretts, Oaklawn, Kinderlou,
Pidcock, I-75 At Exit 29, Brooks Co A/p, Blue Springs, Hollis and
I-75 At Exit 22.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM EST for south central
Georgia.

LAT...LON 3087 8325 3071 8332 3075 8382 3081 8382
      3093 8374 3103 8319 3102 8318 3101 8318
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 261DEG 33KT 3102 8354 3083 8374 3074 8378
Special weather statement, Mar 4, 2:05 PM EST, 51 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
105 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

ALZ065-066-041930-
Dale AL-Coffee AL-
105 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DALE AND NORTHERN
COFFEE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CST...

At 104 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elba, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elba, Fort Rucker, Ariton, Lee, Pine Level, Mixons Crossroads, Lowry
Mill, Camp Humming Hills, Arguta, Wise Mill, Roeton, Clowers
Crossroads, Phillips Crossroads, Arcus, Hwy 231 Pea River Bridge,
Woodland Grove Church, Jack, Java, Chestnut Grove and Greater Salem
Church.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3153 8619 3154 8614 3157 8614 3162 8603
      3162 8560 3154 8556 3140 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 245DEG 49KT 3146 8616

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tallahassee, FL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 4, 3:07 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementTAEBrooks, Grady, Thomas38 min
Mar 4, 3:45 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementTAEBrooks, Lanier, Lowndes, Thomas45 min
Mar 4, 8:27 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAEClay, Quitman48 min
Mar 4, 8:52 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAECalhoun, Randolph, Terrell38 min
Mar 4, 9:21 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementTAEBen Hill, Irwin39 min
Mar 4, 9:29 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAECalhoun, Dougherty, Lee, Randolph, Terrell46 min
Mar 4, 10:08 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAEDougherty, Lee, Turner, Worth26 min
Mar 4, 10:12 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAEEarly33 min
Mar 4, 10:32 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTAEBaker, Calhoun, Early28 min
Mar 4, 10:56 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningTAETerrell, Webster47 hr
Mar 4, 10:58 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningTAELee5 days
Mar 4, 1:37 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementTAEBrooks, Lowndes23 min
Mar 4, 3:13 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementTAEBen Hill, Irwin17 min
Mar 4, 3:29 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementTAEBen Hill16 min
Mar 4, 6:27 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementTAEBen Hill, Calhoun, Clay, Dougherty, Early, Irwin and 5 more63 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Georgia, 2020Every river flood warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.