High Surf Advisory 3, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
104 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Sunday]

VFR conditions are forecast today and for much of tonight. MVFR
ceilings will develop around or shortly before dawn. Winds will
be gusty during the daylight hours on Sunday, frequently gusting
over 20 knots through 18Z. Later in the afternoon, frequent gusts
over 30 knots can be expected at DHN and ECP. Scattered
thunderstorms can be expected at DHN and ABY late in the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1032 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Near zonal flow will exist along the Gulf Coast today. Surface
high pressure will shift from the Southern Apalachians to off the
Southeast U.S. coast by evening. After a chilly start, most areas
will warm to near seasonal levels this afternoon with highs in the
upper 70s in most areas. Earlier shift significantly reduced
POPs for tonight to near zero. Isolated pops are included coming
into the far NW zones by 12z Sunday. It will not be nearly as
chilly tonight with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday through Monday]...

The aforementioned warm front is forecast to lift north of our CWA
Sunday as a surface low and associated cold front move east across
the Southern Plains. Once in the warm sector on Sunday, expect
windy conditions with gusts over 40 mph at times as the pressure
gradient tightens between surface high pressure off the SE U.S.
coast and the low pressure system advancing eastward through the
Lower Mississippi Valley. Thus, expect a wind advisory to be
issued for Sunday. Ahead of the cold front a squall line will
develop and models are now in better agreement on timing this
feature entering and moving across our FA bringing with it the
threat for severe weather. The squall line should enter our
southeast Alabama and western Florida Panhandle zones around
midnight EDT and gradually move eastward to a line roughly from
Tifton GA southwest to near Tallahassee and then on to
Apalachicola around daybreak Monday. It will then move through
the remainder of our CWA by either late Monday morning or early
afternoon.

SPC's convective outlooks for the Sun-Mon period has changed very
little and show our entire CWA in either a slight or enhanced risk
for severe weather. The greatest severe threat along and just
ahead of the squall line will be damaging thunderstorm winds and
possibly a few tornadoes. Since this will mostly be an overnight
event, you should prepare for a way to wake yourself up should a
warning be issued at your location.

In addition to the windy non-thunderstorm conditions on Sunday and
the severe weather threat, other concerns include rip currents/high
surf along the coast, and the potential for minor to moderate
coastal flooding along Apalachee Bay for the Sunday afternoon/evening
high tide.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The cold front is forecast to stall just to the east and south of
our FA by Monday night. However, models show a few areas of low
pressure developing on the boundary keeping rain chances in the
forecast at least through Wednesday before surface high pressure
builds down from the north shunting the front and moisture further
to the south and east. Overall, temperatures will not stray too far
from seasonal levels.

.MARINE...

Light to moderate winds with low seas today will gradually
increase to advisory levels on Sunday with occasional gusts
possibly as high as gale force Sunday and Sunday night as a strong
cold front approaches and moves across the local waters. Strong
to severe thunderstorms are expected out ahead of the front. Winds
and seas will diminish by Tuesday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry weather continues today with critically low RH values dropping
to around 20-24% by this afternoon. Winds remain less than 10 MPH
today but shift to the south and really increase through Sunday.
Transport winds and 20ft winds could be as high as 40 MPH Sunday
afternoon. This will cause dispersion values to be well over 75.
Most of Sunday should be dry although a few showers and
thunderstorms are possible in western areas. A line of severe storms
is expected Sunday night. No fog is expected.

.HYDROLOGY...

A couple opportunities for precipitation over the next week. The
first will be with a dynamic storm system Sunday into Monday.
Forecast rainfall amounts have decreased with this system, mainly
1-2 inches across the hydrologic service area. The second system
is centered on mid-week, with considerable uncertainty in amounts,
potentially up to 2 inches. Overall, river flooding potential
remains low given the expected rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   57  85  68  85  62 /  10  20  90  40  40
Panama City   64  82  70  81  64 /  10  20  90  20  40
Dothan        56  86  67  82  57 /  10  30  90  10  10
Albany        57  85  69  83  58 /  10  40  90  10  20
Valdosta      59  87  69  82  63 /  10  20  80  70  40
Cross City    62  88  70  81  66 /   0  10  40  80  60
Apalachicola  65  80  70  80  65 /   0  10  90  50  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Sunday to 5 AM EDT /4 AM
     CDT/ Monday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Gulf-Jackson-North Walton-
     South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Tuesday
     evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Sunday to 5 PM EDT
     /4 PM CDT/ Monday for Coastal Bay-South Walton.

     High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Monday evening
     for Coastal Franklin.

GA...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Monday for Clay-Early-
     Miller-Quitman-Seminole.

AL...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 4 AM CDT Monday for Coffee-
     Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Sunday to 8 PM EDT
     /7 PM CDT/ Monday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From
     Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
     Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola
     FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa
     Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River
     to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Wool
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Wool
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...LN
HYDROLOGY...LF