Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Tallahassee, FL

346 
WGUS72 KTAE 241936
FFSTAE

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
236 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

FLC005-013-241946-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-201024T1945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bay FL-Calhoun FL-
236 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BAY AND SOUTHWESTERN CALHOUN 
COUNTIES HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD ADVISORY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3033 8574 3039 8566 3041 8539 3022 8536
      3020 8537 3020 8539 3013 8539 2990 8546
      2989 8550 2993 8558 3000 8565 3003 8574
      3007 8578

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
902 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

.UPDATE...

Local radars show a solid area of rain with embedded showers and
thunderstorms extending southward through Alabama into the
western Florida Panhandle and then into the adjacent coastal
waters. This activity is associated with an approaching short wave
that will sweep from west to east across our area today. PoPs
have been raised to categorical (80-90%) for all but the
easternmost zones where they gradually taper down from 70 to 30%.
Some of the rain will be heavy at times and a strong to briefly
severe storm cannot be ruled out.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [658 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Calm conditions are ongoing early this morning as surface high
pressure remains anchored over the southeast US. Plentiful low-level
moisture, coupled with subsidence and light winds should allow a mix
of low-to-mid clouds to persist into the morning. Areas of fog are
also expected to develop along and west of the I-75 corridor before
sunrise. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough associated with a cold front
is approaching from MS. Satellite imagery already shows a large
convective mass along and ahead of the frontal boundary. This system
will serve as the focus for scattered to numerous convection today
as it translates across our area, beginning this morning, then
spreading east in the afternoon. The greatest activity (i.e.,
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms) is forecast to occur
during peak heating hours. The severe weather threat appears low,
but we cannot rule out a strong storm or two.

Rain chances decrease from west to east this evening, but lingering
showers are possible across the northeast half of the CWA near the
departing shortwave. Patchy fog then develops overnight over the
Panhandle and southeast AL, before spreading to southwest GA and the
Big Bend at the end of the near-term period. Mild-to-warm
temperatures are on tap, with highs in the low 80s, and lows in the
mid/upper 60s. Some areas out west could see upper 70s this
afternoon if precipitation/cloud cover is prolonged.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...

Deep-layer ridging will replace the departing shortwave to finish
the weekend and start the new week. Widespread or meaningful rain
amounts are not expected, though a stray shower cannot be ruled
out on Monday in the easterly convergent flow on the far northern
reaches of the trough axis associated with a wave in the western
Caribbean. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows
on Sunday night in the middle to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The main feature of note in the extended range forecast is the
tropical wave in the western Caribbean that currently has a high
likelihood of becoming a tropical cyclone this weekend. While the
early stages of genesis will play an important role on the
eventual track, if it should enter the southeast GOMEX it will
have a period in a low shear environment over anomalously warm
eastern Gulf waters. However, organization could be difficult as
the storm would likely be lopsided due to the presence of dry air
over much of the Gulf. As mid-week approaches, upper-level shear
will as well with the arrival of our next frontal system. So, what
can be said at this point is that a tropical wave/depression/storm
is probably going to slowly enter the Gulf and get swept up in a
mid-week frontal system. While periods of light rain could begin
as early as Tuesday, it's most likely that the best chances for
heavy rain would be in the Wed-Fri time frame, with the front
clearing everything out by the end of the week. Stay tuned as the
forecast becomes more clear over the few couple of days.

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Sunday]

Fog is rolling thru VLD currently, where LIFR conds are occurring, and
may creep to TLH and ABY early this morning. Scattered convection
is expected across the area today with showers starting at ECP and
DHN, then spreading to the remaining terminals. A TEMPO group for
TSRA was included at all TAF sites this afternoon, where MVFR
conds may occur near storms. Thereafter, rain chances decrease
from west to east. Patchy fog is forecast to spread from west to
east overnight into early Sun morning.

.MARINE...

Generally light winds and low seas are forecast through early next
week. Showers and storms are expected today, with dry conditions
to finish the weekend and begin next week. Quite a bit of
uncertainty exists as we move into next week as a tropical wave is
forecast to enter the southern Gulf. Marine conditions could begin
deteriorating by mid-week.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms are
forecast on Sat, followed by a brief period of dry conditions before
rain chances return on Tues. Other than low dispersions across the
area this weekend, there are no red-flag concerns over the next few
days.

.HYDROLOGY...

Showers and storms through tonight could bring average rain
amounts of an inch or so to areas along and west of a line from
Apalachicola through Tifton. Pockets of higher amounts on the
order of 2-3" could also be possible. However, these amounts are
not forecast to bring a risk for flash or riverine flooding.
Mostly dry conditions are then expected through early next week.
Beyond that, the evolution of a tropical wave in the western
Caribbean and an approaching frontal boundary will play a
significant role in how much rain we end up getting through the
end of next week. It's simply too early to tell what impact (if
any) future rain amounts could have on area rivers late next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   81  68  83  67  85 /  90  50   0   0   0
Panama City   81  69  82  69  84 /  90  20   0   0   0
Dothan        78  65  80  65  83 /  90  40   0   0   0
Albany        80  66  81  65  83 /  90  50   0   0   0
Valdosta      83  66  82  67  84 /  50  40   0   0   0
Cross City    85  68  86  69  87 /  30  20  10   0  10
Apalachicola  80  69  81  70  82 /  90  20   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Barry
NEAR TERM...IG
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...IG
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...IG
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan