Alert archive / Maryland / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2020

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511

November 15, 20205 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Nov 15, 2020, 5:35 PM EST for 5 states. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 15, 2020, 5:35 PM EST (22:35 UTC)
Expired
Nov 15, 2020, 10:19 PM EST
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 71 counties

Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Dorchester County, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Somerset County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Wicomico County, MD, Worcester County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, York County, PA, Arlington County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, King George County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

19 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 15, 5:37 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCarroll, Frederick68 min
Nov 15, 5:44 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXClarke, Loudoun46 min
Nov 15, 5:51 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPDauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, York84 min
Nov 15, 5:57 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBerks, Carbon, Lehigh, Monroe, Northampton78 min
Nov 15, 6:22 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXMontgomery53 min
Nov 15, 6:28 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Harford, Howard, City of Baltimore92 min
Nov 15, 6:44 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Morris, Sussex, Warren76 min
Nov 15, 6:53 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHINew Castle67 min
Nov 15, 6:54 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCecil66 min
Nov 15, 7:20 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Prince George's40 min
Nov 15, 7:28 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Charles, Prince George's47 min
Nov 15, 7:31 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Somerset and 1 more74 min
Nov 15, 7:40 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIKent, New Castle, Sussex80 min
Nov 15, 7:50 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHINew Castle70 min
Nov 15, 8:16 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCalvert, Charles, Prince George's, Saint Mary's59 min
Nov 15, 8:42 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQDorchester, Wicomico63 min
Nov 15, 8:43 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIMonmouth47 min
Nov 15, 8:54 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIAtlantic, Burlington, Cape May, Cumberland, Monmouth, Ocean51 min
Nov 15, 8:57 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIKent, Sussex63 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 199 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2020-11-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2020-11-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 199 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
843 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
59 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
199 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
356 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

726 
WWUS20 KWNS 152232
SEL1  
SPC WW 152232
DCZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-CWZ000-160400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 511
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
530 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  District Of Columbia
  Delaware
  Central and eastern Maryland
  New Jersey
  Southeastern Pennsylvania
  Northeastern Virginia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 530 PM until
1100 PM EST.

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...and DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast
of Allentown PA to 50 miles southeast of Washington DC. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 510...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 200. Mean storm motion vector
26045.

...Thompson

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 15, 3:33 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKent, New Castle, Sussex2 hr
Nov 15, 6:52 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKent, New Castle, Sussex113 min
Nov 15, 11:33 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrawford, Erie, Lawrence, Mercer, Venango57 min
Nov 15, 11:51 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBeaver, Butler, Crawford, Erie, Lawrence, Mercer and 1 more3 hr
Nov 15, 1:16 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegheny, Armstrong, Clarion, Elk, Forest, Indiana and 5 more89 min
Nov 15, 1:57 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegheny, Armstrong, Cameron, Clarion, Clearfield, Elk and 8 more4 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Maryland, 2020Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Jersey, 2020Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Virginia, 2020Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.