Mesoscale Discussion 939

Issued

Jun 19, 2020, 2:20 PM MDT (20:20 UTC)

Expired

Jun 19, 2020, 3:45 PM MDT

In force

85 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch possible

Chance of a watch

60%

Counties Crowley County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Otero County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Colfax County, NM, Union County, NM

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 144 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284Jun 19, 2:40 PM MDT

540 
ACUS11 KWNS 192020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192020 
COZ000-NMZ000-192145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0939
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020

Areas affected...southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 192020Z - 192145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are moving eastward out of the Colorado
Rockies and onto the High Plains. Additionally, convective
initiation is beginning near Raton Pass and farther south in
northeast New Mexico in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Severe
hail/wind are the primary threats, and a watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is moving into the
Rockies today with forcing for ascent overspreading much of Colorado
and into northern New Mexico. Thunderstorms developed over central
and south-central Colorado by late morning and have continued to
move eastward. Post-frontal cloud cover has been over much of the
Front Range and down east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains this
morning/afternoon, which has limited destabilization. However, with
upslope flow and surface dewpoints in the low 50s F, some storm
intensification is likely east of the mountains over the High
Plains. 

Farther to the south, towering Cu are apparent near Raton Pass and
south into northeast New Mexico over the eastern slopes of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains. A few CG lightning flashes have been
noted with 50 dBZ reflectivity values southwest of Trinidad. This
area has had less cloud cover today and MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is
now analyzed per mesoanalysis. With 35-50 knots of effective bulk
shear, a couple of supercells may develop and move eastward across
the Raton Mesa/High Plains and vicinity.

Overall, the main severe threats are large hail and damaging wind
gusts. However, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with a discrete
supercell. There is uncertainty regarding coverage/timing of the
severe threat, and the ongoing cloud cover has complicated the
forecast. Trends will continued to be monitored with a watch
issuance possible.

..Nauslar/Guyer.. 06/19/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36030335 35930481 36130490 36900491 37740505 38360497
            38520460 38480355 38300321 37200326 36350325 36030335

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2020Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2020Every mesoscale discussion in 2020

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.