Mesoscale Discussion 920

Issued

Jun 15, 2020, 3:59 PM CDT (20:59 UTC)

Expired

Jun 15, 2020, 6:30 PM CDT

In force

3 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

Counties Beltrami County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 184 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

784 
ACUS11 KWNS 152100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152059 
MNZ000-NDZ000-152330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0920
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020

Areas affected...Far eastern North Dakota/northern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 152059Z - 152330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms including a couple of
supercells could develop across far eastern North Dakota/northwest
Minnesota through late afternoon and early evening. Any such
development could pose a large hail/damaging wind risk, although the
overall extent/likelihood of severe storms remains a bit uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Storms have recently increased north of the
international border across southeast Manitoba, and additional storm
development may occur with south-southwestward extent through late
afternoon/early evening in vicinity of slow-eastward-moving front
near the North Dakota/Minnesota border vicinity. A relatively narrow
modestly moist/moderately unstable corridor exists ahead of the
front, with lower/some mid 60s F surface dewpoints mostly confined
to northwest Minnesota where low-level convergence is maximized.
Convective inhibition continues to weaken, but short-term
uncertainties persist regarding the likelihood/southern extent of
deep convective development given weak overall forcing for ascent
and residual capping. If/where storms do form, as much as 35-40 kt
of effective shear, maximized immediately near the advancing front,
would conditionally support supercell structures coincident with
MLCAPE generally around 1250-1750 J/kg.

..Guyer.. 06/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   48859345 47169482 46949689 49339680 48859345

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2020Every mesoscale discussion in 2020

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.