Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2020
Mesoscale Discussion 784
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 2, 2020, 3:58 PM MDT for Phillips County, Sedgwick County, Yuma County, Colorado; Cheyenne County, Kansas; 33 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 92 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 2, 2020, 3:58 PM MDT (21:58 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 2, 2020, 5:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 92 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 37 counties
Phillips County, CO, Sedgwick County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Antelope County, NE, Arthur County, NE, Blaine County, NE, Boone County, NE, Brown County, NE, Chase County, NE, Custer County, NE, Dawson County, NE, Deuel County, NE, Dundy County, NE, Frontier County, NE, Garden County, NE, Garfield County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Grant County, NE, Greeley County, NE, Hayes County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Holt County, NE, Hooker County, NE, Keith County, NE, Lincoln County, NE, Logan County, NE, Loup County, NE, McPherson County, NE, Perkins County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Red Willow County, NE, Rock County, NE, Sherman County, NE, Thomas County, NE, Valley County, NE, Wheeler County, NE
The radar
The North Platte radar (KLNX), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 21 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2920 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 9 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -30 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -29 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
558
ACUS11 KWNS 022158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022158
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-022330-
Mesoscale Discussion 0784
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020
Areas affected...northeast CO...central NE...and portions of
southern SD
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 022158Z - 022330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Recent visible satellite imagery shows updrafts deepening
near a frontal zone across portions of Nebraska and Colorado.
Moderate destabilization may support a few storms capable of severe
hail and damaging winds through this afternoon and into the evening.
Trends will be monitored, but storm coverage and intensity are not
expected to be great enough to justify a watch at this time.
DISCUSSION...A few deep updrafts have been noted between a quasi
stationary front and a surface trough. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to
low 60s F along and behind the front are contributing to moderate
destabilization, with 2000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Shear is forecast to
remain relatively weak, at or about 25 kt, and mostly on the cooler
side of the boundary. This suggests a few multicell storms capable
of severe hail and strong downdraft winds may develop this
afternoon/evening. Hi-res guidance suggests some clustering of
stronger cells near the front this evening, but the lack of
appreciable deep layer shear suggests that the threat and coverage
of any severe weather may be relatively brief. A weather watch is
not anticipated.
..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/02/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 39720237 40010245 40390251 40680256 41100256 41280254
41540242 41790220 42100160 42500076 42799989 42899959
42879882 42719809 42389754 41909774 41449836 40999903
40429990 39800118 39500189 39600234 39720237SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 2:23 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Sioux | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2020Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2020Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2020Every mesoscale discussion in 2020
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.