Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2020

Mesoscale Discussion 331

April 10, 20206 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 10, 2020, 2:19 PM CDT for 6 counties in Texas. It was in force for 86 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 10, 2020, 2:19 PM CDT (19:19 UTC)
Expired: Apr 10, 2020, 3:45 PM CDT
In force: 86 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 40%

Counties Crane County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 150 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 99Apr 10, 3:40 PM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 151 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1077 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 228 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 217 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

925 
ACUS11 KWNS 101919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101919 
TXZ000-102045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0331
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2020

Areas affected...portions of southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 101919Z - 102045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convective initiation is possible by mid afternoon across
parts of southwest Texas. Storms that develop will pose a risk for
large hail and strong wind. Trends will continue to be monitored and
a watch may be needed by mid/late afternoon, although the spatial
extent of the threat appears limited.

DISCUSSION...Early afternoon surface and satellite observations show
a surface low west of the Fort Stockton, TX area with a developing
field of agitated cumulus to the south and southeast of the low.
Inhibition in this region has been slow to erode per visible
satellite imagery, but recent SPC Mesoanalysis suggests that MLCIN
has eroded enough to support convective initiation in the vicinity
of the surface low within the next 1-3 hours. Weak forcing for
ascent will likely favor only a few storms developing, but those
that do will mature in an environment supportive of organized
convection within a plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE with 40-45 knots
of effective bulk shear. Although large hail will be the primary
threat from any storm that develops, steep low level lapse rates
(7-8 C/km) will support the potential for down-draft driven strong
winds as well.

..Moore/Grams.. 04/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30900442 31440374 31740296 31690224 31410176 30970145
            30590156 30310197 30040264 29830336 29870378 30250428
            30900442

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 9, 7:59 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aransas, Atascosa, Bee, Brooks, Calhoun, Cameron and 23 more	2 hr
Apr 10, 2:27 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Hidalgo, Jim Hogg, Starr, Zapata	93 min
Apr 10, 3:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Brewster, Crane, Crockett, Ector, Jeff Davis, Pecos and 8 more	7 hr
Apr 10, 6:52 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Crane, Ector, Glasscock, Howard, Irion and 7 more	113 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2020 Every mesoscale discussion in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.