Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2020

Mesoscale Discussion 21

January 10, 20205 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 10, 2020, 7:30 PM CST for 5 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 10, 2020, 7:30 PM CST (01:30 UTC)
Expired
Jan 10, 2020, 9:30 PM CST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 101 counties

Baxter County, AR, Boone County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Columbia County, AR, Conway County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Izard County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Little River County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Miller County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Newton County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Yell County, AR, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, Crawford County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Howell County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Texas County, MO, Wright County, MO, Choctaw County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, Anderson County, TX, Angelina County, TX, Bell County, TX, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Collin County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Delta County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Houston County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Madison County, TX, Marion County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Morris County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Panola County, TX, Rains County, TX, Red River County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Smith County, TX, Titus County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Wood County, TX

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 00:00Z, 1.5 hours before the alert went out and 196 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2020-01-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 703 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2020-01-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 379 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
703 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-35 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
813 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
379 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
620 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.6
Supercell composite
6.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

421 
ACUS11 KWNS 110130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110130 
MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-110330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

Areas affected...northeast Texas/southeast Oklahoma into the
Arklatex and Ozarks...and much of Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...5...

Valid 110130Z - 110330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3, 5 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe weather risk continues, including potential for a
few tornadoes across WW 003 and 005.

DISCUSSION...Radar continues to show a nearly contiguous line of
convection near the advancing surface front, from central and
eastern Missouri south-southwestward to the lower Rio Grande Valley.
Within this band, occasional rotating updrafts continue to
periodically evolve and then diminish -- temporarily enhancing
severe risk as the spin-ups reach peak intensity.  Meanwhile, broken
bands of pre-frontal storms continue -- from central Texas
north-northeast to west-central Arkansas.  While this convection
continues struggling to organize overall, occasional rotating storms
evolve -- aided by favorably strong/veering flow with height
supportive of supercells.  

Within both of these regimes (the near-frontal band of storms as
well as the warm-sector pre-frontal convection), severe risk
continues, including potential for a few tornadoes.

..Goss.. 01/11/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   30779699 31099767 33009693 33929615 34249514 35079450
            35849424 36859271 38019221 38029128 37209135 35969172
            33109297 31839400 31079477 30779699

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 10, 10:40 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Clay, Cleburne and 40 more2 hr
Jan 10, 11:58 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAshley, Chicot, Clay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 6 more7 hr
Jan 11, 12:28 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCUnion8 hr
Jan 11, 3:52 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden, Desha, Lee, Mississippi, Phillips, St. Francis83 min
Jan 11, 12:21 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Evangeline and 11 more99 min
Jan 11, 1:19 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBienville, Caldwell, Claiborne, De Soto, Jackson, Lincoln and 7 more86 min
Jan 11, 2:22 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCatahoula, Concordia, East Carroll, Franklin, Madison, Richland and 2 more53 min
Jan 11, 2:37 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCCatahoula, Concordia, East Carroll, Franklin, Madison, Morehouse and 3 more8 hr
Jan 11, 4:31 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Ascension, Avoyelles, Caldwell, Catahoula, Concordia and 21 more59 min
Jan 11, 5:18 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAscension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Jefferson and 16 more7 hr
Jan 11, 7:39 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAscension, Assumption, Jefferson, Lafourche, Livingston, Orleans and 8 more96 min
Jan 11, 3:10 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudrain, Boone, Callaway, Cole, Crawford, Franklin and 15 more4 hr
Jan 11, 8:21 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCreek, Nowata, Osage, Rogers, Tulsa, Washington114 min
Jan 10, 6:30 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Burnet and 16 more2 hr
Jan 10, 8:49 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAngelina, Austin, Brazoria, Brazos, Burleson, Chambers and 25 more116 min
Jan 10, 9:09 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAustin, Brazoria, Brazos, Burleson, Chambers, Colorado and 17 more5 hr
Jan 11, 7:34 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCooke, Denton, Fannin, Grayson116 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2020Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2020Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2020Every mesoscale discussion in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.