Special Weather Statement, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1016 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level trough will move across the Great
Basin today through tonight from southwest to northeast. High
pressure aloft will strengthen over the interior west beginning
midweek, bringing hot and dry conditions through the end of the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak disturbance moving northeast across the
southern Wasatch Front at sunrise created a swath of clouds and a
few showers but has now mostly moved into southwest Wyoming.
Clouds have been decreasing in Wasatch Back and this trend is
expected to continue into southwest Wyoming by midday. Made an
update earlier to reflect this change.

Farther south, the leading edge of the upper level trough swinging
across the Great Basin is creating a few showers and thunderstorms
along the Nevada/Utah border west of Cedar City this morning. As
this trough moves northeast into Utah this afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will become more widespread. However, there is
somewhat of a subsidence layer between 460-500mb that was observed
on the SLC and Flagstaff 12Z sounding this morning which will
inhibit most convection east of I-15 through midday. As the
trough moves into southwestern Utah early this afternoon this cap
is expected to dissolve over the southwest initially and then west
central and the south this afternoon and into northern Utah late
this afternoon through tonight. The 300 mb trough becomes more
negatively tilted by this evening creating more widespread and
stronger lift. Current forecast looks reasonable with higher PoPs
moving into northern Utah tonight, although may have to expand
the likely PoPs beyond midnight across the north. Also, the trend
of lowering PoPs across the south is on target as well with the
subsidence behind the trough likely to kill the convection rather
rapidly this evening.

Have lowered the PoPs across the southwest and south for this
morning due to the aforementioned reasoning. Rest of package in
good shape.

&&

.AVIATION...Light southerly flow should switch to a light
northerly flow around 21z. Vicinity showers by 00z will develop
along the higher terrain. Scattered clouds along the terrain may
obscure the mountains after 00z. There is a 30% change for some
embedded thunderstorms that may bring additional hazards to the
terminal beginning around 02z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

PUBLIC...Struthwolf
AVIATION...Woodward

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
619 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2020

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-281200-
Cache Valley/Utah Portion-Northern Wasatch Front-
Salt Lake and Tooele Valleys-Southern Wasatch Front-
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains-Wasatch Mountain Valleys-
Wasatch Mountains I-80 North-Wasatch Mountains South of I-80-
Western Uinta Mountains-Wasatch Plateau/Book Cliffs-
Western Uinta Basin-Castle Country-San Rafael Swell-
Sanpete/Sevier Valleys-West Central Utah-Southwest Utah-
Utahs Dixie and Zion National Park-South Central Utah-
Glen Canyon Recreation Area/Lake Powell-Central Mountains-
Southern Mountains-Southwest Wyoming-
619 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the western two thirds of
Utah and southwest Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A weather system will bring showers and thunderstorms to much of
the area today. Lightning and strong gusty winds will be the main
threats with these storms, with locally heavy rainfall also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Tuesday across
northern Utah and southwest Wyoming. Otherwise high pressure will
bring hot and dry conditions to the outlook area through the
remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines.

For more information from NOAA/s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For information on potential road travel impacts visit...
http://www.udottraffic.utah.gov/roadweatherforecast.aspx

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