Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

859 
WGUS75 KSLC 242355
FFSSLC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
555 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

UTC017-250045-
/O.CON.KSLC.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-200725T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Garfield UT-
555 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM MDT THIS 
EVENING FOR CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTY...

At 555 PM MDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
thunderstorms produced heavy rain between 0.5 and 1.5 inches. 
Although heavy rain has ended, flash flooding is already occurring 
as the flow on the Escalante River at Escalante rose from 8 cubic 
feet per second to 322 cubic feet per second at 415 PM. This flood 
wave will continue downstream in the Escalante River Canyon.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Doppler radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks, streams and
         slot canyons.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Escalante.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Wide Hollow, Boulder Creek, Wolverine Creek, Harris Wash, Mamie 
  Creek, Death Hollow, Pine Creek, Willow Patch Creek, Sand Creek, 
  Deer Creek, Escalante River, Sweetwater Creek, Alvey Wash, The 
  Gulch, Calf Creek, Steep Creek and Right Fork Wide Hollow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain. Dry 
washes, streams, and rivers can become raging killer currents in a 
matter of minutes, even from distant rainfall.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where 
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become 
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or 
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 3785 11167 3773 11163 3771 11146 3774 11117
      3790 11121

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

Church

219 
WGUS75 KSLC 250042
FFSSLC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
642 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

UTC017-250052-
/O.EXP.KSLC.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-200725T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Garfield UT-
642 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR 
CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

LAT...LON 3785 11167 3773 11163 3771 11146 3774 11117
      3790 11121

$$

SW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1041 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoonal moisture will impact mainly the eastern and
southern portions of Utah through the weekend. Somewhat drier
conditions are anticipated across the remainder of the forecast
area this weekend. Moisture will increase from the south early
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Monday)...The axis of the deep layer
moisture remains in place over much eastern and extreme southern
Utah. Satellite derived PWAT has values running in the 0.80" to
1.00" range. Somewhat drier air has filtered into extreme western
Utah, though PWAT values still remain in the 0.55" to 0.65" range.

Earlier convection across south-central through northeast Utah has
mostly dissipated late this morning. Less cloud cover will allow
for a period of good surface heating in areas with the highest
PWAT values. Anticipating an expansion of convection once again
by early afternoon, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall
across extreme southern and eastern portions of the forecast area
through early this evening.

A portion of the decaying trough over California will lift northeast
through the western and northern Great Basin this afternoon and
evening. The introduction of weak dynamic lift along with adequate
moisture and good surface heating throughout the day should bring
some convection into northwest Utah later this afternoon through
early this evening.

Lingering moisture across the far southern and eastern portions
of the forecast area will maintains some convection through the
weekend. Drier air expanding east out of Nevada will limit
convection to mostly cloud cover and isolated showers/storms over
the higher terrain of northern and western Utah during the
afternoon/early evening hours this weekend.

Issued an earlier update to add showers/thunderstorms to far
southwest and northwest Utah today.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Monday)...Global models in good agreement
in lifting shortwave trough of low pressure across eastern Great
Basin Monday afternoon and night, with a second upper level
disturbance crossing northern portions of region on Tuesday. Given
period of southerly moist flow ahead of system, with precipitable
water values increasing to around an inch, slight chance to
chance wording favored for much of forecast area for Monday
afternoon and night, with continued chances for precipitation on
Tuesday for northern and eastern sections of forecast area.

Global models are in good agreement with a mid level ridge of
high pressure building back over region on Wednesday.  As such, any
potential for showers and thunderstorms should be primarily
limited to the higher terrain of southern and eastern Utah.

Global models diverge from Wednesday night through Thursday,
as GEFS indicates a more amplified flow, with a period of northward
moisture transport.  EPS and CMCE suggest an elongated ridge from
new mexico westward across Arizona to southern California, with a
resultant dry west to southwest flow.  Examining Cluster
Analysis, majority of EPS and CMCE members support this solution, as
do some GEFS members.  All considered, confidence for precipitation
during period is limited, so will just stick with slight chance
wording for higher terrain of southern and eastern Utah.  With
700MB temperatures progged at 16 to 18 C, expect temperatures to
be a couple of degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected throughout the current
valid TAF period at KSLC. A 10 percent chance will exist for a
shower or thunderstorm with gusty outflow winds and lightning
impacting the airfield after 21Z. Prevailing south winds will
transition to the west-northwest between 20-21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoonal moisture will remain pooled over eastern
and far southern Utah today, with drier air moving into western
Utah. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over primarily the
eastern half of the district this afternoon and this evening, with
heavy rain possible with any storms that develop, though the areal
coverage overall will be less than yesterday. Somewhat drier air
will continue to move in for Saturday, though some showers and
storms will again be possible over southern and eastern Utah this
weekend. The return of southerly flow will draw deep moisture back
into the district for the early part of the upcoming week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

CONGER/BARJENBRUCH

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
354 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-251000-
Cache Valley/Utah Portion-Northern Wasatch Front-
Salt Lake and Tooele Valleys-Southern Wasatch Front-
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains-Wasatch Mountain Valleys-
Wasatch Mountains I-80 North-Wasatch Mountains South of I-80-
Western Uinta Mountains-Wasatch Plateau/Book Cliffs-
Western Uinta Basin-Castle Country-San Rafael Swell-
Sanpete/Sevier Valleys-West Central Utah-Southwest Utah-
Utahs Dixie and Zion National Park-South Central Utah-
Glen Canyon Recreation Area/Lake Powell-Central Mountains-
Southern Mountains-Southwest Wyoming-
354 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the western two thirds of
Utah and southwest Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A moist and unstable airmass remains over the southeastern half of
the outlook area today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop over that part of the area this afternoon into the early
evening. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing
heavy rain, so flash flooding as possible, particularly for prone
areas such as slot canyons, burn scars, and normally dry washes.
Drier air moving into western Utah will limit the develop of
showers and thunderstorms over that portions of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Drier air will continue to move in from the west on Saturday, but
some storms are still anticipated over the higher terrain and over
southeast Utah, where monsoonal moisture will linger. Any storms
that develop will be capable of producing heavy rain that could
lead to flash flooding. Moisture is expected to spread north back
over the outlook area early next week, increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines.

For more information from NOAA/s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For information on potential road travel impacts visit...
http://www.udottraffic.utah.gov/roadweatherforecast.aspx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
334 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

UTZ005-242215-
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains UT-
334 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BOX ELDER COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

At 333 PM MDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 17 miles northeast of Montello, or near Lucin,
...moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lucin.

This includes Utah Route 30 between mile markers 3 and 25.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches, take shelter in a sturdy building.

Strong winds with these storms may occur well ahead of any rain or
lightning. Do not wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4126 11401 4146 11400 4163 11364 4125 11352
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 258DEG 12KT 4139 11388

Church