Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
243 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Thunderstorms are still expected to develop along the dryline to
our west later this afternoon and move east across western/central
portions of the forecasts area this evening. Some storms may be
severe this evening, with large hail damaging winds possible.
While severe storms will be possible just about anywhere across
the forecast area this evening, the greatest severe threat will
north of a Barnhart to Brownwood line. In addition to a severe
threat, given PW (Precipitable Water)values between 1.25 and
1.5 inches, the potential exists for heavy rainfall with some
of the storms, which may lead to localized flash flooding.
Storms are expected to weaken after midnight and gradually
dissipate/move east of the area.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible again on Thursday, with
a marginal threat for severe storms. Main threat will again be
large hail and damaging winds. Lows tonight will be in the upper
60s. Temperatures will be considerably cooler on Thursday, with
afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

24

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)

By Thursday night, a broad trough will have built in across the
western US. Shortwave impulses rotating around the base of this
trough into the southern Plains will increase chances for showers
and thunderstorms Thursday night and through much of the weekend.
While timing and location of storms will be highly variable during
this period, it appears that most activity will develop each
afternoon and push eastward through the evening. High temperatures
will otherwise be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

By early next week, models are indicating an upper-level trough
will move into the southern Plains. Earlier runs indicated this
would become a closed low aloft, but now are showing a more
progressive upper-level pattern. Regardless, this will result in
continuing chances for thunderstorms with temperatures remaining
at or close to seasonal normals through the middle of next week.

SK

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 68  90  68  91 /  50  30  30  10
San Angelo 	 70  94  69  94 /  50  20  30   5
Junction 	 69  90  68  90 /  30  30  40  20
Brownwood 	 68  90  65  90 /  40  30  30  10
Sweetwater 	 65  92  67  92 /  50  20  10   5
Ozona      	 69  90  67  90 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
250 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-212000-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
250 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to develop and move into West Central
Texas late this afternoon and evening. Some storms may be severe
The main weather hazards will be damaging winds, large hail and
dangerous lightning. In addition, some of the storms will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall, which may lead to localized
flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. Additional thunderstorms will be possible
into the Memorial Day holiday weekend, across various parts of
West Central Texas. Some strong to severe storms will be possible
with strong winds, hail and lightning the main threats. The risk
of severe storms will need to be monitored.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening. Please relay any
information about observed weather to the NWS while following all
local, state and CDC guidelines.

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