Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
627 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR to locally IFR conditions will generally continue through
16Z. Conditions improving to mainly VFR from west to east 16Z
through 22Z, with VFR conditions then continuing through 03Z Sun
before MVFR CIGs start to re-develop across the eastern counties.
Isolated TSRA will continue to be possible through 05Z Sun. TSRA
chances will increase significantly after 05Z Sun, with strongest
TSRA possibly producing very large hail, strong, erratic downdraft
winds and locally heavy rain which could produce brief IFR/LIFR
conditions. Expect SE winds of around 8-12 KT to continue through
15Z, before becoming S to SSE and strengthening to 12-18 KT with
gusts of 20-25 KT. Winds becoming SE and weakening by several KT
after 02Z Sun. A front moving in from the west will have gusty
west to west-northwest winds moving in behind it the front and
TSRA ending behind the front as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

..Severe Thunderstorms Possible Today and Tonight...

Early this morning, increasing southeasterly low level winds was
bringing increasing moisture (low 50s to low 60s), resulting in low
clouds expanding across our region. Expect these clouds to erode
during the late morning to early afternoon hours, making way for
partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 70s (in our
eastern counties where clouds burn off later) to mid 80s (in our
western counties where clouds burn off earlier).

Today and tonight will feature three different periods and
atmospheric processes which will create chances for showers and
storms. This morning, a weak upper level short-wave trough will move
up through the region in southwest flow aloft which, in addition to
warm air advection at 850 mb, could create chances for showers and
thunderstorms, with best chances across the Big Country. This
afternoon, isolated thunderstorms could develop along and ahead of a
north-northeast to south-southwest oriented dry-line which will
stretch from Aspermont to near western Crockett County. Day-time
heating will increase instability (ML CAPE increasing to 1500-2500
J/KG), while 0-6 km bulk shear reaches 40-60 KT. Forecast soundings
indicate a shear profile favorable for these storms to have
supercellular structure. This evening, a mid-level capping inversion
may strengthen, potentially resulting in a lull in storm activity.
Then, thunderstorm activity should increase significantly after
midnight as a strong upper level trough approaches from the west,
bringing strong lift to the region. ML CAPE will still be more than
sufficient (1500-2500 J/KG) during these overnight hours, while a 50-
70 KT low level jet will significantly increase the wind shear, with
supercells possibly being the favored storm structure once again.
Latest SPC convective outlook has an Enhanced risk across most of
the forecast area, with a Slight Risk across Crockett County. Very
large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. As
the trough axis moves east across our region late tonight, the dry-
line/front will be pushed east as well, with storm chances ending
from west to east as it moves through. By sunrise Sunday, storms
should have moved off to our east.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

A Pacific cold front will move through West Central Texas Sunday
morning, resulting in gusty west winds of 15 to 30 mph. High
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s. A stronger cold
front will move into the Big Country by mid to late afternoon,
then through the rest of the area by early morning Monday. Much
colder temperatures will filter into the region behind the front
along with gusty north winds of 15 to 25 mph. Overnight low
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s for most locations.
Wind chill values by sunrise will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s
for much of the area. Well below normal temperatures are forecast
on Monday with highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Another cold morning
is expected on Tuesday with most locations dropping into the mid
to upper 30s.

On Tuesday, a broad upper level trough will track across the
Plains. This will result in increased cloud cover across the
forecast area, with a few showers possible across the northern Big
Country. The increased cloud cover will help to keep temperatures
cool, with highs ranging from the 50s across the Big Country to
the 60s elsewhere. Expect overnight lows once again in the mid to
upper 30s. A slow warm up will then ensue Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 78  55  77  35 /  50  50   0   0
San Angelo 	 84  54  79  38 /  30  60   0   0
Junction 	 81  57  79  40 /  30  70   0   0
Brownwood 	 75  58  77  35 /  40  80  20   0
Sweetwater 	 79  54  77  35 /  50  40   0   0
Ozona      	 84  54  79  40 /  20  50   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SJH/Daniels
AVIATION...SJH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
952 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

TXZ099-114-111530-
Throckmorton TX-Shackelford TX-
952 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SHACKELFORD AND
SOUTHEASTERN THROCKMORTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM CDT...

At 951 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles north of Albany, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Fort Griffin around 1005 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Lusk.

LAT...LON 3311 9895 3296 9895 3295 9909 3281 9910
      3277 9934 3285 9942
TIME...MOT...LOC 1451Z 249DEG 31KT 3281 9930

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