Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1254 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the updated Aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Cluster of showers and thunderstorms is moving northward across
the Big Country early this morning. Radar trends indicate this
activity will remain mainly west of KABI but will continue to
monitor closely. More scattered showers may develop across the
area overnight. Ceilings may briefly dip to MVFR across the
southern terminals toward morning but confidence is low.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions on Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 606 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Convection in the first 6 hours will be the primary concern, and
will use latest radar trends and hi-res models for the first guess
on timing of storms across the terminals. Models indicated
several rounds, with the most widespread area of storms moving
southwest to northeast across the area late evening and early
morning hours between 03Z and 08Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)

.Severe Thunderstorms...

A surface boundary and another energy impulse aloft will combine
to enhance the potential for severe thunderstorms, across West
Central Texas, again tonight. That potential is highest, mainly
along and north of a line from Sterling City, to San Angelo, to
Millersview, to Brownwood. The main threats for all of West
Central Texas tonight are large hail, damaging winds, and deadly
lightning; additionally, tornadoes are possible, especially where
the severe thunderstorm potential is highest.

(Thursday)

.Dry and Warm...

As this upper trough finally moves east, dry and warm conditions
will follow Thursday. Surface winds Thursday afternoon will
initially be from the south; but, an approaching cold front will
create winds more from the south west or west, by Thursday
afternoon. The downslope component of those afternoon surface
winds, along with lots of afternoon sunshine, will help produce
afternoon highs well above usual mid March highs.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)

.Cooler and Wet...

Another cold front will move across West Central Texas Thursday
night into Friday, This will bring cooler temperatures into West
Central Texas, at least for a couple days, Then, rain chances
return late Thursday night, as the front moves south. Moist
upglide may produce mainly showers Saturday and Sunday. Then, the
upper pattern shifts and a broad ridge build over the Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 73  43  53  35 /   5  10  10   0
San Angelo 	 77  47  59  38 /   0  20  10   0
Junction 	 81  50  62  40 /   5  60  40   0
Brownwood 	 78  45  57  36 /  10  20  30   5
Sweetwater 	 71  42  52  35 /   0   5   5   0
Ozona      	 78  50  62  39 /   0  30  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

42

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
242 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-191945-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
242 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible this evening through early
Thursday morning. The main hazards will be large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The threat for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested Wednesday evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
135 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 AM     TORNADO          TYE                     32.46N 99.87W
03/19/2020                   TAYLOR             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TAYLOR COUNTY SO REPORTS TORNADO ON THE
            GROUND IN TYE AT RYSTER PARK ON THE SOUTH
            SIDE OF I-20. POWER FLASHES ALSO REPORTED.

&&

SJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
145 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0138 AM     TORNADO          2 SW IMPACT             32.48N 99.77W
03/19/2020                   TAYLOR             TX   PUBLIC

            TWEETED REPORT FROM THE PUBLIC OF A TORNADO
            ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF ABILENE.

&&

SJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
216 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     TORNADO          5 NNE HAMBY             32.58N 99.60W
03/19/2020                   SHACKELFORD        TX   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            DEBRIS BALL DETECTED ON RADAR.

&&

SJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
225 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0214 AM     TORNADO          ALBANY                  32.73N 99.30W
03/19/2020                   SHACKELFORD        TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO REPORTED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
            ALBANY.

&&

SJH

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