Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
403 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020

This afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed
across the northern Concho Valley and Big Country as high dewpoints
(above 65) and day-time heating induced instability (ML CAPE above
2000 J/KG) has been enough to overcome a weak capping inversion.

The long advertised cold front is currently moving past Lubbock and
headed our direction. Latest hi-res model guidance shows the front
moving into the Big Country late this evening, down into the
northern Concho Valley after midnight, pushing into the southern
Concho Valley by mid morning Wednesday, then into the Heartland and
Northern Edwards Plateau early Wednesday afternoon, and finally into
the Northwest Hill Country late Wednesday afternoon. The expected
somewhat slow progress of the front will result in the front being
around longer to provide an extra focus of lift and heavy rain,
particularly in the western counties where models indicate the
heaviest rainfall amounts. In the upper levels, the upper low is
still forecast to move into the Four Corners region tonight and hang
out in that area through Wednesday, tapping into mid and upper level
subtropical moisture, while high amounts of moisture behind and
ahead of the front will provide plentiful moisture in the low levels
(precipitable water values of 1.8-2.0 inches). This will result in
efficient/heavy rainfall rates from showers/storms. After the
frontal passage, warm air advection in the low levels will
continue to provide lift, resulting in potentially widespread
stratiform rainfall. Due to the NAM usually handling cold fronts
better, the temperature forecast continues to lean towards that
model, which also happens to show the coolest temperatures for
this event. Thus, the forecast indicates lows early tomorrow
morning and day-time highs Wednesday afternoon in the mid 50s in
our northwest counties and upper 60s in the southeast counties...
and lows Wednesday night in the 50s area-wide.

Potential rainfall totals still look pretty heavy: widespread 2-4
inch amounts and locally 6 inches. The heavy rain amounts could
result in increased flooding concerns. Severe thunderstorms are not
expected at the moment, although a few strong storms cannot be ruled
out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020

The primary forecast focus this cycle was on the short term. Good
rain chances do continue into Thursday, with isentropic upglide
the main forcing mechanism. Then, rain chances decrease, as drier
air moves into West Central Texas. For this weekend, rain chances
briefly increase, with the best chances across our southern
counties. The good news is temperatures will be on the lower side
of seasonal normals, into the start of next work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 57  58  51  65 /  80  90  80  60
San Angelo 	 61  62  55  63 /  80  90  80  70
Junction 	 70  72  59  69 /  70  80  80  70
Brownwood 	 68  69  56  68 /  80  80  80  60
Sweetwater 	 53  54  52  60 /  90  90  80  70
Ozona      	 62  64  55  66 /  80  90  90  70

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...SJH
LONG TERM...19
AVIATION...SJH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
240 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-091945-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
240 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and early evening. Lightning strikes, brief downpours and locally
gusty winds are possible.

A strong cold front will bring high chances for thunderstorms
tonight, mainly after midnight. Some storms could be strong, with
lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours possible. Heavy rain
could result in flooding concerns overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A strong cold front will continue to bring chances for
thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday evening. Some storms
could be strong, with lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours
possible. Heavy rain could result in increased flooding concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
240 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-091230-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
Including the cities of ROTAN, ROBY, SWEETWATER, STERLING CITY,
ROBERT LEE, BRONTE, BALLINGER, WINTERS, MERTZON, SAN ANGELO,
EDEN, OZONA, ELDORADO, SONORA, HASKELL, THROCKMORTON, WOODSON,
STAMFORD, ANSON, HAMLIN, ALBANY, ABILENE, CLYDE, BAIRD,
CROSS PLAINS, COLEMAN, BROWNWOOD, BRADY, SAN SABA, MENARD,
JUNCTION, and MASON
240 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020

...Abrupt Change in the Weather with Colder and Wet conditions
Tonight through Thursday...

An early season Canadian Cold Front will move through West
Central Texas Tonight into Wednesday, shifting the winds to the
north at 15 to 30 mph and bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms
to the region. The highest chances for widespread moderate to
heavy rain and thunderstorms will be very early Wednesday morning
through Wednesday night. Heavy showers and thunderstorms could
continue through the day Thursday as well. Total rainfall amounts
look to be around 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts of 6 inches.
The heavy rain could lead to increased flooding concerns for urban
areas and small streams. Rises along area rivers are likely, and
there is the potential for minor to possible moderate flooding
along the Upper Brazos, Upper Colorado and Rio Grande
tributaries.

The combination of gusty winds, colder temperatures and rainfall
will make it feel unusually cool for this time of year, dropping
wind chill temperatures into the low 50s Wednesday and Thursday
mornings. This may impact livestock, especially newly shorn sheep
in West Central Texas.

SJH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
406 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020

TXZ098-082145-
Haskell TX-
406 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN HASKELL COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

At 406 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rochester, or near Haskell, moving north at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Rochester around 420 PM CDT.
  Weinert around 435 PM CDT.
  O'brien around 440 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Jud, Us-
277 Near The Haskell-Knox County Line and Us-380 Near The Haskell-
Stonewall County Line.

LAT...LON 3305 9966 3308 9999 3340 9999 3340 9957
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 194DEG 14KT 3324 9979

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
554 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020

TXZ098-113-082345-
Haskell TX-Jones TX-
554 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL AND
NORTHWESTERN JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 553 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Anson, moving north at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Haskell and northwestern Jones Counties, including the following
locations... Funston, Tuxedo and Truby.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3300 9981 3269 9974 3263 9996 3286 10015
      3293 10014
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 159DEG 16KT 3274 9990