Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
223 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

1 pm temperatures today are about 2-5 degrees higher than at this
time yesterday, while dewpoints are ranging from the low to mid 60s
in our extreme western areas to low to mid 70s elsewhere. This is
resulting in heat index values in the mid 90s to low 100s, with a
few locations in the 105-107 range. A Heat Advisory continues for
most of the forecast area through 7 PM Today as heat index values in
the 105-109 range will likely expand as the afternoon continues.
Meanwhile, the dry-line is mixing eastward, and is currently
stretching from Post to Bakersfield. As the afternoon goes on, the
dry-line is expected to continue moving east, and be oriented from
Aspermont southwest to Iraan by 4 PM. An upper level short-wave
trough will move northeast through the Trans-Pecos region and the
Permian Basin today, bringing weak lift across our forecast area.
Once again, wind shear will be weak (around 25 KT from 0-6 km) and
ML CAPE will be very high due to the high dewpoints/hot temperatures
(3000+ J/KG). Expect storms to start developing along the dry-line
in the western Concho Valley, western Big Country, and western
Crockett County by 4 PM and possibly push east through the early to
mid evening hours, although storms look unlikely to impact areas
east of a Haskell to Junction line. There is a Marginal Risk of
severe weather today, with localized large hail and damaging winds
possible with the strongest storms.

Tonight, lows will be warm again in the mid 70s due to continued
high dewpoints.

Thursday, the 850 mb thermal ridge will weaken a little, with highs
slightly lower (in the mid to upper 90s, to perhaps touching 100 in
some locations), while dewpoints will continue to be in the mid 60s
to low 70s. Thus, heat index values in the 96 to 104 degree range
will be possible Thursday afternoon. The dry-line will be further
west Thursday, so dry-line storms look less likely. However, NAM12
point soundings show the cap breaking early in the afternoon, and hi-
res models show isolated to widely scattered air mass
thunderstorms/showers developing during the afternoon. These are not
expected to be severe.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing early Thursday
evening, but most of this activity will dissipate shortly after
sunset. Overnight low temperatures will be in the upper 60s to mid
70s.

Friday through the weekend, upper level ridging will strengthen
across the area, resulting in generally hot and dry conditions.
Highs will be between 97 and 101 degrees, with overnight lows in the
70s. The upper level level ridge may shift far enough west for the
first half of next to allow for isolated, mainly diurnally driven,
showers and thunderstorms. The GFS continues to show this solution.
The ECMWF keeps the ridge a bit farther east, resulting in a mainly
dry forecast. For now, have added in slight chance PoPs for Monday ,
but rain chances may eventually need to be increased if models trend
toward the GFS solution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 75  97  74  98 /  20  20  10   0
San Angelo 	 76 100  72 102 /  40  20  20   0
Junction 	 75  98  69 101 /  20  10  10   0
Brownwood 	 75  98  70 100 /   5  20  10   0
Sweetwater 	 74  96  74  99 /  20  20  10   5
Ozona      	 73  96  71  98 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Mason-McCulloch-
Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

SH/Daniels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
144 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-021845-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
144 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Hot and humid conditions will contribute to an increased risk for
heat related illnesses today. A Heat Advisory remains in effect
for much of West Central Texas through 7 PM this evening.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon and evening across much of West Central Texas. The main
hazards will be strong wind gusts, hail and deadly lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The threat for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and early
evening. Please relay any information about observed weather to
the NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

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