Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
642 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for thunderstorms at and near the Abilene terminal until
around 02Z this evening. Elsewhere, thunderstorms shouldn't be a
problem. Stratus looks like to return overnight tonight, at least
for the Brady and Junction terminals. Otherwise, terminals should
remain under VFR conditions through 00Z Wednesday. Also, all
MVFR terminals should be VFR by 15Z Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 219 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

Early this afternoon, a dry-line was stretching from Aspermont
southwest through Fort Stockton, with dewpoints in the 40s to the
west of it and dewpoints in the mid 60s to the east. As of 1 pm, ML
CAPE of 2500 J/KG existed east of the dry-line, and NAM forecast
soundings show the capping inversion breaking by 3 pm. Meanwhile, an
upper level short-wave trough is forecast to bring lift as it moves
northeast into the Red River region today. Thus, expect
thunderstorms to develop around 3 or 4 pm along the dry-line, then
move east through the early evening hours before dissipating by late
evening as the atmosphere becomes stable. There is a Marginal Risk
of strong to severe thunderstorms due to large instability (strong
updrafts), so strong winds and hail will be possible. Tonight, high
dewpoints in continued warm/moist southerly low level flow will
result in another warm night, with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Tuesday, an upper level trough will continue over the Rocky
Mountains, with southwest flow aloft bringing in another subtle
upper level short-wave. Meanwhile, the dry-line looks to be in a
similar position to today, with NAM12 showing ML CAPEs potentially
above 4000 J/KG. Once again, the capping inversion looks to break
again by around mid afternoon with isolated storms possible once
again. The 850 mb thermal ridge will strengthen further, up to 28-29
deg C, so it could be rather hot, with highs in the upper 90s to low
100s (perhaps near 104/105 in some western Concho Valley and Big
Country locations where dewpoints will be lower). in the eastern
counties, high dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s and temperatures
reaching the upper 90s could result in heat index values in the 103-
108 degree range.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Isolated showers and thunderstorms that develop along the dryline
may linger into the evening hours Tuesday, with most of the activity
dissipating by mid to late evening. Continued slight chance PoPs for
mainly the central and eastern counties Tuesday evening. Another hot
day is forecast on Wednesday with most locations topping out in the
99 to 104 degree range. The dryline will once again move east into
our western counties during the afternoon hours. Ahead of the
dryline, SBCAPE values will increase to 2000-4000 J/KG, while bulk
shear values remain fairly low, around 15 to 20 knots. An isolated
strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible, with strong gusty
winds being the main concern, given the large dewpoint depressions
that are expected with the very hot temperatures. Once again, most
of this activity will dissipate by mid evening.

Thursday into the weekend, an upper level ridge will build over
Texas resulting in mainly hot and dry conditions. An isolated shower
or thunderstorms is possible across our western counties Thursday
afternoon, but most areas will remain dry. Expect highs between 98
and 102 through this period, with overnight lows in the 70s. The
upper level ridge is then forecast to shift west of the area during
the first part of next week, which may result in our next chance of
precipitation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 77 101  76 100 /  20  20  10  10
San Angelo 	 77 104  75 103 /  20  20  20  20
Junction 	 77  99  73  99 /  20  20  20  10
Brownwood 	 76  99  73  99 /  20  20  20  10
Sweetwater 	 76 103  76 102 /   5  10  10  10
Ozona      	 74  99  74  99 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
156 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-301900-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
156 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon and evening across much of West Central Texas. The main
hazards will be strong wind gusts, hail and dangerous lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated thunderstorms are possible again during the afternoon
and evening hours Tuesday and Wednesday across much of West
Central Texas. The main hazards will be strong wind gusts, hail
and dangerous lightning.

Expect hot and humid conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday,
resulting in an increased threat of heat related illnesses.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and early
evening. Please relay any information about observed weather to
the NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
420 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

TXZ098-113-292200-
Haskell TX-Jones TX-
420 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HASKELL AND NORTH CENTRAL JONES
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 418 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a couple of strong
thunderstorms near Stamford, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

This strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Paint Creek around 435 PM CDT.
  Haskell, Stamford and Lake Stamford Marina around 440 PM CDT.
  Irby around 455 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Tuxedo.

LAT...LON 3302 9948 3286 9992 3296 9999 3308 9999
      3330 9986 3338 9948
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 236DEG 33KT 3301 9986

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