Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
702 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the updated Aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms continue across
the area this evening. Will continue a mention of -RA in the TAFS
for the next couple of hours before activity diminishes.
Otherwise, models indicate low level stratus development overnight
resulting in MVFR ceilings. Ceilings may further lower to IFR in
the morning along the I-10 corridor. A return to VFR conditions is
then expected in the afternoon. A few showers or storms may
develop again on Tuesday but coverage looks to be less than today.
Thus will keep out a mention of thunder for this TAF package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

Currently, there are scattered showers and thunderstorms across
most of West Central Texas as a tropical-like upper level low
to our west drifts north into the Permian Basin. These storms are
not expected to produce severe weather. However, with the moist
tropical-like atmosphere in place, they will be very efficient
rain-producers, and could result in localized flooding, and
occasional lightning strikes. These storms will persist into the
evening hours before dissipating, and becoming isolated or
nonexistent by midnight. On Tuesday, the upper low will move
northeast into Oklahoma with weak shortwave energy rotating around
the southern side, possibly giving the area one more shot at
isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with
similar concerns, mainly locally heavy rainfall and cloud to
ground lightning. Look for lows mainly in the 60s tonight, and
temperatures warming into the mid/upper 80s for Tuesday.

20

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)

An upper level ridge will build east into our area during the middle
to late part of the week, and will be centered over Texas this
weekend. This will result in mostly clear skies for our area, with
above normal temperatures. Expecting highs to be mostly in the mid
to upper 90s for this weekend, but a few triple digits would not
be out of the question. Early next week, may have a system in the
Gulf of Mexico approaching the upper half of the Texas coast. Will
monitor trends with the medium range models, but the 12Z GFS and
ECMWF indicate a hot and dry pattern for our area in the early to
middle part of next week. Will have a possibility of triple digit
highs across a larger part of our area.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 65  87  68  91 /  20  20   0   0
San Angelo 	 64  88  67  91 /  20  20   5   0
Junction 	 64  84  66  86 /  30  30   5   0
Brownwood 	 64  86  68  90 /  20  30   0   0
Sweetwater 	 65  87  68  92 /  20  20   5   0
Ozona      	 64  85  68  89 /  30  20   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

42

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
218 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-021930-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
218 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
through early evening. Brief heavy rainfall from these storms may
produce localized street flooding. Dangerous lightning is also
possible. Thunderstorms are expected to become isolated by late
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
Tuesday. The main hazards will be brief heavy rainfall and
dangerous lightning. The threat for widespread hazardous weather
is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.