Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
518 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

.UPDATE...
Elevated convection ongoing along and north of a frontal boundary
stretched across central Louisiana into southeast Texas. Low level
southerly flow lifting over front will continue to generate strong
to severe thunderstorms mainly south of I-20 this morning.
Therefore, Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 42 is now in effect
through noon. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
VCTS conditions expected mainly along and south of I-20 and
including ELD this morning with VCSH conditions possible across
TXK. Convection to continue through the afternoon transitioning to
VCSH and -RA by 05/00Z. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings this morning to
possibly improve to low VFR this afternoon before becoming
MVFR/IFR after 05/00Z. Otherwise, northeast winds to increase to
10 to 15 knots today, becoming north around 5 to 10 knots
tonight. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 204 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday/
An upper-level low translating eastward across the ArkLaTex today
will interact with a surface cold front extending across deep
east Texas and central Louisiana. An east-west band of elevated
convection across these areas along and north of the front could
support strong to severe thunderstorms this morning. Locally
heavy rainfall, hail and damaging winds will be the highest
threats.

Convection to linger through this afternoon and into tonight
while gradually diminishing in intensity as upper-low becomes
centered overhead and opens into a trough. Additionally, wrap
around moisture behind a surface and low-level low pressure across
the northern gulf will support low elevation showers across the
region as it moves into the the north central Gulf of Mexico.

Dry conditions expected on Thursday as upper-ridge builds
areawide. Temperatures during the short term period to range
from highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 40s. /05/

LONG TERM.../Thursday Night through Wednesday Night/

Upper trough confined to the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley region
of the country will have a cold front associated with it that will
swing through our region Thu/Thu Night which will help to reinforce
some slightly cooler temperatures Thursday Night but for the most
part, this airmass will quickly modify for Friday into the upcoming
weekend as southerly winds return for the weekend.

Upper ridging will dominate our area of the country for the upcoming
weekend but this ridge begins to slide east of our region late
Sunday and especially early next week. Upper flow to become
southwest Sunday Night through at least Monday which will result in
increasing rain chances as we should see good low and mid level
moisture return ahead of disturbances moving our way in this flow.
Too early to pinpoint anything significant concerning this weather
pattern next week but potential instability suggests that some of
these storms could be on the strong side in the Mon-Tue timeframe
ahead of our next cold front.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  48  67  43 / 100  80   0   0
MLU  60  50  66  42 / 100  90  10   0
DEQ  61  43  70  33 /  70  50   0   0
TXK  58  46  67  41 /  90  70   0   0
ELD  59  46  67  38 / 100  80  10   0
TYR  59  45  67  43 / 100  70   0   0
GGG  60  46  67  42 / 100  80   0   0
LFK  65  49  68  45 / 100  80   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

05/13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
226 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ138-150>153-165>167-051200-
Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-Union-De Soto-Red River-
Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-Harrison-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-
Angelina-San Augustine-
226 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Louisiana, northwest Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase across the
region today through tonight. Some of these storms could be strong
to severe, especially this morning. At this time, large hail
appears to be the main threat but an isolated damaging wind and
tornado threat cannot be ruled. The severe threat should diminish
quickly this evening into the overnight hours but there will be a
heavy rainfall threat today through tonight mainly south of the
Interstate 20 Corridor of Northeast Texas and Northern Louisiana.
This will include the Lower Toledo Bend and Sam Rayburn Country of
Deep East Texas into West Central and East Central Louisiana where
excessive heavy rainfall could result in some localized flooding
issues through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Rain moves out of the region early on Thursday with relatively
pleasant conditions expected through the upcoming weekend. Showers
and thunderstorms are back in the forecast however Monday into
Tuesday ahead of our next storm system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters may become necessary today for the
possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136-
137-149-051200-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Cherokee-
226 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northeast
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase across the
region today through tonight. While some isolated strong
thunderstorms may be possible across some locations later today,
any severe thunderstorms should remain south of the region through
tonight. While periods of heavier rainfall will be possible
through tonight, any flooding threat should remain south of the
region as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Rain moves out of the region early on Thursday with relatively
pleasant conditions expected through the upcoming weekend. Showers
and thunderstorms are back in the forecast however Monday into
Tuesday ahead of our next storm system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters should not be necessary through
tonight.

13

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
636 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

TXZ150-151-041315-
Panola TX-Rusk TX-
636 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PANOLA AND CENTRAL
RUSK COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM CST...

At 636 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Minden, or 14 miles south of Henderson, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Henderson, Beckville, Pinehill, Minden, Chapman, Church Hill,
Glenfawn, Laneville, Fairplay, Stewart and Brachfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until noon CST for
northeastern Texas.

LAT...LON 3187 9482 3195 9493 3234 9464 3220 9438
TIME...MOT...LOC 1236Z 217DEG 36KT 3195 9482

13