Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
149 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday Night/
A transitional weather pattern to characterize the short term
period ending Monday night. A weak frontal boundary lingering
across the region to serve as the source for convection later this
evening. Some strong storms capable of producing gusty winds will
be possible mainly across east Texas and adjacent areas of
northwest Louisiana. Storms to diminish by midnight.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect through the remainder of the
afternoon as heat index values approach 105 to 110 degrees.

Different story expected on Monday and Monday night with dry high
pressure becoming better established across the region. Expect
high temperatures in the lower 90s with overnight lows in the
upper 60s to near 70. /05/

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/

In the wake of Monday's cold front, look for upper-level ridging to
bolster out west, eventually building back in to the Four-States
region. Typically when we mention upper level ridging, it's usually
followed with the words "warm and humid." However, I have some good
news this go around. The cold front will move through the area, and
stall out along the coast. This will keep winds from the
north/northeast for most of the Long-Term, allowing for dry air to
stay situated across the region. Additionally, afternoon high
temperatures will stay in the low-90s through the extended, as the
stalled front will help keep the warmer air to our south. This front
should stay stalled into Thursday, before another low moves through,
pushing it fully out of the region.

Precipitation chances over the long-term will be influenced by the
meandering of the stalled front, and eventually the sea breeze when
the stalled front kicks out. Additionally, as I previously mentioned,
another low pressure systems appears to move through the lower
Mississippi valley towards the end of this long-term period. This
would increase rain chances in our eastern zones, as they would be
on the fringe of this activity.

/44/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail across area terminals through 17/18Z.
However, could see reduced visibility values in and around
convection that could affect all terminal sites with the exception
of TXK from 17/00Z-17/05Z. Otherwise, northeast winds around 5
knots overnight to increase to 5 to 10 knots on Monday. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  94  70  94 /  30  10   0   0
MLU  69  92  68  95 /  20  10   0   0
DEQ  69  91  68  93 /  10  10   0   0
TXK  68  91  68  91 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  67  91  67  93 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  74  93  70  96 /  40  20   0   0
GGG  73  94  70  96 /  30  10   0   0
LFK  75  96  71  99 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

05/44

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
335 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

TXZ096-108>110-162115-
Camp TX-Red River TX-Franklin TX-Titus TX-
335 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN...SOUTHWESTERN TITUS...
CAMP AND SOUTHWESTERN RED RIVER COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 334 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mount Vernon, or 8 miles southeast of Hagansport, moving south at 35
mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Pleasant, Pittsburg, Leesburg, Hagansport, Mount Vernon,
Bogata, Scroggins, Newsome, Purley, Winfield, Talco, Miller's Cove,
Rocky Mound, Hopewell, Holly Springs, Monticello, Harvard, Center
Point, Johntown and Lafayette.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3354 9531 3359 9514 3290 9478 3290 9515
      3300 9515 3296 9517 3296 9520 3324 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 341DEG 32KT 3325 9515

19