Severe Thunderstorm Warning 219, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
646 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

.AVIATION...

For the ArkLaTex terminals, a short wave upper low has a line of
shwrs/TS stretching from b/t KELD/KMLU and down to near KLFK.
This is movg NE along the bow. These linger for the p.m. while
decreasing in intensity after sunset. Overnight we will see some
MVFR cigs at several sites as another piece of energy rotates in
overhead with scat shwrs/TS before daybreak and perhaps lingering
from the morning into the afternoon before moving on. Meanwhile,
winds will keep S/SE5KT overnight and S/SW5-15KT on Sunday. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 256 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday Night/

Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms have develop across
the region this afternoon as a shortwave trough moves over the
ArkLaTex. All convection should diminish late this evening, as
instability decreases behind the departing shortwave.

More convection is expected to develop along a frontal boundary
to the northwest of the region overnight. Models continue to
suggest that this activity will hold together and move south to
near the I-30 corridor and possible as far south as the I-20
corridor on Sunday morning. Another disturbance is expected to
move across the region tomorrow afternoon/evening keeping rain
chances in the forecast during the remainder of the day. Most of
the convection should diminish again by late Sunday evening./20/

LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday Night/

To start the work week, we will continue moving into a wetter
pattern across the Four State Region as a longwave trough will
dominate much of the Plains with ridging noted across the Southwest
CONUS. A weak shear axis will remain anchored somewhere across S/SE
TX with this axis oriented southwest to northeast into our southern
zones. This axis will waffle back north and south through much of
the upcoming work week as several disturbances move out of the
longwave trough and into our region from the northwest in what will
be a prolonged period of northwest flow aloft.

Typically in this kind of upper level flow, we will see disturbances
develop during the late afternoon and evening hours across the
Plains with these disturbances being fed by a low level jet helping
to sustain and intensify the disturbances during the overnight
hours. These disturbances will propagate south and east, approaching
the Middle Red River Valley of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma
and Southwest Arkansas during the predawn hours before we begin to
lose coverage after sunrise. Further southeast propagation and
development of additional convection will greatly depend upon
daytime heating and any residual outflow boundaries generated from
the parent disturbance earlier in the day.  All this to say that
this weather pattern will be firmly entrenched across our region
through much of next week.

There are some indications that the remnant shear axis across SE or
Deep S TX will try to lift out northward into our region sometime
late in the work week or early next weekend which would keep rain
chances in the forecast at least through the first half of next
weekend. The upper ridge which will have been displaced well to our
west this upcoming work week appears to migrate eastward towards our
region just beyond the 7-Day forecast period which would bring and
end to our wet pattern with the heat returning in earnest. Until
then, enjoy the rain chances and milder temperatures this upcoming
work week. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  74  91 /  20  40  10  40
MLU  72  91  73  92 /  20  40  10  50
DEQ  70  87  70  90 /  30  60  10  30
TXK  72  87  72  89 /  20  50  10  30
ELD  70  88  72  90 /  20  50  10  40
TYR  72  90  74  92 /  20  20  10  30
GGG  72  91  72  91 /  20  30  10  30
LFK  72  91  74  91 /  20  40  10  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

24/20/13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
519 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-211030-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
519 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
today and this evening. While severe weather is not expected,
gusty winds and heavy downpours cannot be ruled out in the
stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase through all
of next week, as a series of upper level disturbances and a cold
front move across the region. Although widespread severe weather
is not expected, an isolated damaging wind gust or two cannot be
ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will not be needed tonight.

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
624 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

LAZ001-002-010-011-210015-
De Soto LA-Bossier LA-Red River LA-Caddo LA-
624 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL DE SOTO...
NORTHWESTERN RED RIVER...SOUTHEASTERN CADDO AND SOUTH CENTRAL BOSSIER
PARISHES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 624 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Stonewall, or 10 miles north of Mansfield, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elm Grove, Ninock, Frierson, Mc Dade, Kingston and Caspiana.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3209 9374 3219 9381 3239 9355 3235 9346
      3222 9343
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 234DEG 18KT 3218 9372

15

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