Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
351 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast to account for the training storms over Central
Louisiana. There are some impressive 10 plus inch rainfall amounts
off of the KSHV and KPOE radars in this general area. Have
increased rain chances, heavy rainfall wording, and rainfall
amounts in this confined region. Storms are firing along the
surface front with some strong divergent flow aloft. The real
question moving forward will be for how long into the evening will
this last. /35/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 157 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday Night/

Latest HiRes models are in agreement that convection across west-
central Louisiana will have dissipated by the start of the tonight
period as mid to upper-level ridge begins to build across the
region from northeast Texas. Weak surface boundary contributing to
these storms is forecast to meander across the northern gulf
coast overnight. Low-level flow to develop a southerly component
overnight with increased moisture trapped beneath the diurnal
inversion to lead to low ceilings across much of the region.
Overnight low temperatures forecast to fall into the 60s tonight.

Ceilings to remain across much of the region through Thursday
with some improvement from the south as the day progresses. An
upper-level disturbance translating east across the I-30 corridor
to generate scattered convection across these areas. Afternoon
high temperatures forecast to range from the mid 70s across
southeast Oklahoma to near 90 across deep east Texas.

Otherwise southwest flow aloft to maintain enhanced moisture
through the mid-levels maintaining mostly cloudy skies through
Thursday night. Low temperatures on Thursday night to fall into
the mid to upper 60s areawide. /05/

LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/

Prime "popcorn" afternoon convection season is finally upon us, as
the long-term period looks to be warm and unsettled in south-
southwest flow. Temperatures will likely run five degrees above
average for the first four or five days, as that southwest flow
really helps maintain warm-air advection. However, on Monday a cold-
front will move through the region, bringing temperatures back down
into the mid-80s, and a more seasonal feel.

Precipitation, much like temperatures, will be driven by southwest
flow. Through the weekend, widespread convection is not anticipated.
Instead, it will more than likely resemble the more isolated stuff
we are used to seeing in the summer. A pop up storm here and there,
depending on where the CU field develops in the afternoon. The next
best chance for organized shower and thunderstorm activity will
occur on Monday and Tuesday, as a cold front moves through the
region, and a cut off low builds in behind it. Once this cut off low
builds in on Tuesday, organized shower and thunderstorm activity
will remain possible for the remainder of the long-term period.

/44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1224 PM CDT Wed May 20 2020/

AVIATION...
East winds around 5 to 10 knots today to become 5 knots or less
overnight. Winds to become east to southeast on Thursday,
increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Otherwise, MVFR to low VFR ceilings
this afternoon to briefly become all VFR by 21/00Z. However,
ceilings forecast to again become MVFR by daybreak Thursday with
gradual improvement through the end of the forecast period at
21/18Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  87  69  89 /  30  10  10  20
MLU  66  86  68  90 /  10  20   0  20
DEQ  62  79  65  88 /  10  40  20  30
TXK  65  82  65  87 /  10  30  10  20
ELD  62  84  66  89 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  69  87  69  88 /  30  10  10  20
GGG  67  88  68  89 /  30  10  10  20
LFK  71  91  70  90 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1135 AM CDT Wed May 20 2020

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-211645-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1135 AM CDT Wed May 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A rather stout 700mb Theta-e axis has set up across portions of
the Four-States region this morning. This is allowing for
elevated convection to fire and train in some of our southern
counties and parishes. While none of these updrafts have been
severe as of yet, a few have been pushing severe criteria. As
such, a severe storm or two can not be ruled out this afternoon
with peak daytime heating. Additionally, rainfall rates have been
rather steady this morning, and the training nature of these cell
may lead to some localized flash flooding into this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will likely continue as
we enter into prime "popcorn" convective season. This activity
will remain through the weekend, with our next system likely into
Monday. Look for a bump in thunderstorm chances during that
timeframe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters may be needed for this afternoon.
Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

44

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