Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1128 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

.UPDATE...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to expand NE across much of NE
Texas, NW Louisiana, and SW Arkansas late this morning as the
upper level trough out to our west continues to shift farther east
with instability increasing aloft as atmospheric cooling continues
in the mid and upper levels. Meanwhile, the sfc cold front has yet
to clear our extreme SE zones across parts of central Louisiana so
we are continuing to closely monitor storms entering this general
area from the SW for the threat of damaging winds, hail, and even
possibly an isolated tornado. This threat should only exist for
another couple hours before the cold front eventually clears the
region. Forecast updates for this morning include increasing PoPs
slightly higher over most of the area with some adjustments to
hourly temperatures and dew points as well, prompting some minor
changes to afternoon highs. Otherwise, the going forecast remains
largely on track with no additional changes warranted at this
time. All updated text products have been issued.

/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 539 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020/

AVIATION...
Pds of mainly shwrs will continue throughout the 12Z TAF pd, with
some isold tstms possible at KMLU late this morning through this
aftn. Cigs to remain IFR for the most part, with some reductions
in vsbys also possible with shwrs and patchy fog. Although too
uncertain to mention in the TAFs, the possibility exists for a
light/brief mix of rain, sleet, and/or snow during the overnight
pd from KLFK to KELD and sites nwwd. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday/

Cold front stalled across the sern corner of our region this
morning, as positively-tilted upper trof axis continues to lumber
ewd. PVA associated therewith continues to provide lift in swly
flow atop a relatively cool sfc layer. As a result, sct to
numerous shwrs and a few tstms continue across portions of the
area. Expecting that this general trend will continue, with
perhaps some enhancement of convection near the frontal zone/sfc
low across N Central LA by midday today. A brief window may exist
where a few tstms could develop and strengthen, as swly flow aloft
increases in response to the trof axis pivoting ewd. Thus, a
damaging wind gust or two or perhaps even an isold tornado cannot
be ruled out during this timeframe across our far se.

Approach of the upper trof axis should force the front ewd by
later this aftn, effectively ending the severe threat. Meanwhile,
CAA will continue in the wake of the front, bringing increasingly
dry air ahead of the trof tonight. However, some light
precipitation, likely rain with perhaps some sleet or snow
flurries mixed, may develop late tonight. No accumulation or
impacts to travel or otherwise are expected.

Trof to finally move ewd across our region early Thursday, taking
with it the last of the precip. Chilly, well-below normal temps
are fcst for Thursday, even as skies begin to clear from w to e in
the wake of the upper trof axis. /12/

LONG TERM.../Thursday Night through Tuesday Night/

By Thursday evening, northwest flow aloft along with northwest winds
at the surface will continue to bring in colder and drier air in
wake of an upper trough departing the region. Skies should clear
from west to east and sfc winds will diminish during the overnight
period as surface high pressure builds into the region. This will
allow for near freezing temperatures areawide with lows Friday
morning in the upper 20s to lower 30s. A warmer day expected on
Friday as southerly winds return and push afternoon high
temperatures into the mid to upper 50s across our northern zones and
into the lower to mid 60s farther south.

Rain chances will return early Saturday as another cold front will
quickly shift SE across the area but limited moisture return should
keep widespread rain at a minimum. Dry conditions to return by
Saturday evening behind the front, but slightly warmer temps
expected as lows will fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Surface
winds will quickly veer back to the SE on Sunday and upper level
flow aloft will shift to the SW. As a result, expect slightly above
normal temperatures with low-level moisture increasing from the
Gulf. By Sunday afternoon, rain chances will return as disturbances
will move across the region along the SW flow aloft. Rain chances to
remain through Monday as a deep trough carving out across the Desert
SW will continue to send a series of upper disturbances NE in the
flow pattern aloft.  As the upper trough continues to shift east
Monday into Tuesday, the trend looks to remain wet as the associated
frontal boundary with the trough will stall across the region. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  35  45  33 /  90  30  10   0
MLU  59  42  48  32 /  90  40  20   0
DEQ  46  32  44  26 /  90  20   0   0
TXK  47  33  42  30 /  90  20  10   0
ELD  50  38  44  30 /  90  30  20   0
TYR  42  32  45  32 /  80  30   0   0
GGG  45  33  45  32 /  90  20  10   0
LFK  48  35  48  33 /  60  30  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

19/12/20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1130 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-061730-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1130 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms will continue
today behind a cold front. A few strong to marginally severe
storms with damaging winds will be possible across Northeast and
Central Louisiana as well as South Central Arkansas. Additionally
small hail can be expected in most storms across the region today.

Wintry precipitation is possible Wednesday night into Thursday
morning for portions of the region. However, no accumulations are
expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Rain chances will return on Saturday and again late Sunday through
Tuesday as a series of frontal boundaries and disturbances move
across the region. At this time, no hazardous weather is
expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters should not be needed through
tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1037 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

LAZ001-010-TXZ136>138-149>153-051715-
De Soto LA-Caddo LA-Gregg TX-Cherokee TX-Smith TX-Panola TX-
Harrison TX-Nacogdoches TX-Rusk TX-Shelby TX-
1037 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL DE SOTO AND
SOUTHWESTERN CADDO PARISHES...SOUTHEASTERN SMITH...SOUTHEASTERN
HARRISON...PANOLA...RUSK...NORTHWESTERN NACOGDOCHES...NORTHWESTERN
SHELBY...SOUTHEASTERN GREGG AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL
1115 AM CST...

At 1037 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Henderson, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Pea size hail was reported with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marshall, Henderson, Carthage, Hallsville, Tatum, New London,
Beckville, Deberry, Elysian Fields, Pinehill, New Salem, Woodlawn,
Joinerville, Sacul, Turnertown, Minden, New Summerfield, Lakeport,
Cushing and Easton.

LAT...LON 3174 9492 3206 9521 3272 9430 3216 9386
TIME...MOT...LOC 1637Z 239DEG 49KT 3206 9485

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1120 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

LAZ019>022-051800-
Caldwell LA-Winn LA-La Salle LA-Grant LA-
1120 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GRANT...SOUTHWESTERN
CALDWELL...NORTHWESTERN LA SALLE AND CENTRAL WINN PARISHES UNTIL NOON
CST...

At 1120 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northeast of Montgomery, or 13 miles south of Winnfield, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

Pea size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winnfield, Olla, Urania, Atlanta, Sikes, Joyce, Lake Iatt and Hudson.

LAT...LON 3194 9220 3161 9266 3173 9287 3215 9259
      3215 9256
TIME...MOT...LOC 1720Z 215DEG 43KT 3173 9270

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1127 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

ARZ070>073-LAZ001>004-012-TXZ110>112-125-126-137-138-051815-
Union AR-Lafayette AR-Miller AR-Columbia AR-Bossier LA-Caddo LA-
Webster LA-Bienville LA-Claiborne LA-Gregg TX-Harrison TX-Marion TX-
Morris TX-Upshur TX-Cass TX-Camp TX-
1127 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE...
SOUTHWESTERN UNION...SOUTHERN MILLER AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA
COUNTIES...WEBSTER...CADDO...CLAIBORNE...NORTH CENTRAL BIENVILLE AND
BOSSIER PARISHES...MARION...EASTERN UPSHUR...CASS...HARRISON...
SOUTHEASTERN MORRIS...SOUTHEASTERN CAMP AND CENTRAL GREGG COUNTIES
UNTIL 1215 PM CST...

At 1127 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Liberty City to near Gibsland. Movement was
north at 65 mph.

Pea size hail is expected with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Shreveport, Longview, Bossier City, Marshall, Minden, White Oak,
Gladewater, Atlanta, Springhill, Homer, Vivian, Hallsville, Haughton,
Greenwood, Blanchard, Daingerfield, Haynesville, Waskom, Jefferson
and Linden.

LAT...LON 3317 9471 3317 9282 3242 9307 3245 9494
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 194DEG 57KT 3247 9493 3247 9309

05

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