Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Shreveport, LA

448 
WGUS74 KSHV 121453
FFSSHV

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
853 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

TXC183-203-315-423-459-499-121530-
/O.CON.KSHV.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200212T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Smith TX-Marion TX-Harrison TX-Wood TX-Upshur TX-Gregg TX-
853 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CST FOR
SMITH...WESTERN MARION...NORTHWESTERN HARRISON...SOUTHEASTERN WOOD...
UPSHUR AND GREGG COUNTIES...

At 849 AM CST, Doppler radar and automated gauges indicated heavy 
rain falling across the warned area. Up to five inches of rain have 
already fallen in some areas. Flash flooding is already occurring. 
Broadcast media is reporting numerous roads flooded and closed over 
parts of Smith, Gregg, and Upshur counties.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Tyler, Longview, Kilgore, Whitehouse, White Oak, Gladewater, Gilmer,
Lindale, Bullard, Jefferson, Big Sandy, Hawkins, Ore City,
Clarksville City, East Mountain, Harleton, Berea, Diana, Rosewood and
Liberty City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3290 9491 3290 9472 3288 9471 3288 9430
      3272 9433 3237 9491 3237 9498 3232 9498
      3214 9529 3213 9546 3215 9548 3218 9546
      3223 9549 3230 9545 3236 9545 3250 9559

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

19

919 
WGUS54 KSHV 121525
FFWSHV
TXC183-203-315-423-459-499-121830-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200212T1830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
925 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Smith County in northeastern Texas...
  Western Marion County in northeastern Texas...
  Northwestern Harrison County in northeastern Texas...
  Southeastern Wood County in northeastern Texas...
  Upshur County in northeastern Texas...
  Gregg County in northeastern Texas...

* Until 1230 PM CST.

* At 921 AM CST, Doppler radar and automated gauges indicated 
  showers producing heavy rain across the warned area. Up to five 
  inches of rain have already fallen. Flash flooding is already 
  occurring in some locations. Broadcast media continue to report 
  numerous flooded roads across the warned area.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

  IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
           highways, streets and underpasses as well as other 
           drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Tyler, Longview, Kilgore, Whitehouse, White Oak, Gladewater,
  Gilmer, Lindale, Bullard, Jefferson, Big Sandy, Hawkins, Ore City,
  Clarksville City, East Mountain, Harleton, Berea, Diana, Rosewood
  and Liberty City.

Additional rainfall amounts 1-2 inches are possible in the warned 
area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3290 9491 3290 9472 3288 9471 3288 9430
      3272 9433 3237 9491 3237 9498 3232 9498
      3214 9529 3213 9546 3215 9548 3218 9546
      3223 9549 3230 9545 3236 9545 3250 9559

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

19

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
558 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020

.AVIATION...

Widespread IFR (to locally LIFR) conditions are expected this
morning due to a combination of low cloud and visibility issues,
with locally heavy rain further complicating the situation over in
TXK/TYR. Low pressure forming over the center of the region will
ensure inclement weather and IFR conditions in all areas through
the bulk of the day with shifting winds. Expect winds to become
northwest in all areas by tonight when conditions will be drying
out and ceilings trending toward MVFR/VFR combos by daybreak
Thursday. But through today, expect more in the way of rain,
although thunderstorms will generally be pretty isolated. /50/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020/

SHORT TERM.../now through Thursday Night/

One more day of wet conditions to get through before we get a
needed temporary break from the inclement weather. Heavy rain will
still be a concern for today, although primarily along and north
of the I-20 corridor. Fortunately, the previous threat for severe
thunderstorms for today has shifted mostly east of the region.

Currently, an expansive area of moderate to occasionally heavy
rain (with a few embedded thunderstorms) is pushing northeast into
NE TX and will spread through roughly the I-30 corridor over the
next few hours. The combination of isentropic ascent, high
moisture transport aloft, and strong forcing aloft from the right
entrance region of an impressive jet streak is driving this
activity through midday - and will be the primary focus of the
remaining flash flood threat. Additional totals in the mentioned
areas could locally be up to 3 inches, which could be problematic
given ground saturation from precipitation over the last few
days. Farther east, expect precipitation to be more "showery"
through the bulk of the day, although areas along and north of
the I-20 corridor may still be able to get a localized 2 inches
(especially if they experience a thunderstorm or two). Otherwise,
locations generally along and south of a Lufkin, to Natchitoches,
to Columbia line were pulled from the ongoing flash flood watch
through 6 pm because additional totals predominately under an inch
really should not lead to a significant flash flood threat.

We still expect the stalled front to our southeast to bulge
northwest quickly this morning through midday as the incoming
disturbance to our east (and factors associated with that) lead to
surface low pressure formation in our eastern zones. This low
will then rapidly translate northeast into the Tennessee Valley by
evening and help drag a rather sharp cold front through most of
the Four State region by daybreak Thursday. There will still be a
window for instability to develop in Central Louisiana from late
morning through early afternoon, but mainly just southeast of a
Monroe to Natchitoches line (where highs could approach 70
degrees). It is in these latter areas where the Storm Prediction
Center still is maintaining a MARGINAL risk for severe storms -
but the key point is the focus for the severe storm threat today
is definitely to our east. Outside of the far southeast portion of
the forecast area, expect temperatures to struggle (or fail) to
reach 50 degrees on the cool side of the boundary where clouds
and precipitation will be ubiquitous.

From mid this afternoon through mid evening expect rain to be
gradually clearing out of the region from west to east, although
clouds and drizzle may linger around in the wake of most of the
precipitation for a few hours. We will be dry by late in the night
when temperatures get down to a range of mid 30s to lower 40s.

Thursday will be a seasonably chilly day, despite partly sunny
skies, mainly because northwest winds will impart a wind chill to
ambient temperatures that will only generally peak in a range
from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Winds should lighten up a bit
Thursday night under mostly clear skies. These decent radiational
cooling conditions should allow for a rare (for this winter)
widespread freeze. /50/

LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday Night/

A very cold 1037mb sfc high will be crossing the MS river near St
Louis at 12Z Friday and the driving NE winds of late will begin to
slack and veer to E and SE and begin a warming trend.  However,
after such a chilly start it will be hard to notice with lower to
middle 50s for highs yet again. Air temps will begin to moderate
well on Saturday back to near average and then even get into the
lower 70s for some on Sunday and then areawide for Monday with the
persistent S/SE wind flow off the Gulf. Lows too will quickly rise
into the 50s by early next week.

Weather wise for the weekend as the big sfc high center moves
farther away from our region, the isentropic ascent will be likely
to develop somewhere. The GFS and ECMWF models vary on timing and
placement of light showers edging back Northward into the area. We
can expect a big increase in the high clouds Friday night with light
rain showers beginning to develop by mid to late morning on Saturday
with coverage of rain shower areas further increasing into the
afternoon if you like the ECMWF anyway. We will see if the GFS comes
around this run. One thing is for sure, the wet pattern is just
warming up for more super wet.

Thunderstorms will be possible by Monday and well beyond with a
super moist SW flow aloft to become established and keep us in the
wet pattern into early Thursday with high chance and likely pops for
much of next week the way it looks now. A cold front will push out
much of the moisture and cut off the main trough, which now slowly
fills and the pattern becomes more zonal overhead for us to have a
break perhaps late in the week. Once again cooler and drier arrives
as we start to look at some crests on rivers, lakes and bayous late
next week and weekend. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1135 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020/

AVIATION...

No major changes from the 00z TAF package. Mostly IFR across all
sites, with quick drops into LIFR possible throughout the day
today. Rain and thunder are still a concern, so some form of RA,
SHRA, and VCTS are present at all terminals. Visibility is also
expected to fluctuate with the various rounds of precipitation.
Ceilings will start to improve towards the end of this TAF period
at KGGG and KTYR, as the front finally lifts north and moves out
of the region. /44/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  40  52  31 / 100  10   0   0
MLU  66  44  53  30 / 100  50   0   0
DEQ  48  34  47  24 / 100  20   0   0
TXK  47  38  48  27 / 100  10   0   0
ELD  52  39  51  26 / 100  20   0   0
TYR  52  38  48  30 / 100   0   0   0
GGG  52  38  50  29 / 100   0   0   0
LFK  58  40  54  33 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for LAZ001>006-010>014.

OK...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for OKZ077.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153.

&&

50/24/50

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1233 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-121845-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1233 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue today and tonight as upper
disturbances in the southwest flow aloft keep the flash flooding
threat in place due to our highly saturated soils. Additional
rainfall amounts of up to an inch are expected through late this
afternoon with heavier amounts expected tonight that will further
enhance the flash flood threat. Therefore, a Flash Flood Watch
remains in effect across the entire region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

A surface low will develop along a stalled frontal boundary south
of the region and lift back northward on Wednesday, contributing
to more heavy rainfall. Additional rainfall amounts on Wednesday
will range from 2 to 4 inches across much of the region with some
localized higher amounts possible. In addition, the threat of a
few severe storms also will be possible Wednesday across parts of
north central and northeast Louisiana as warmer and more unstable
air is lifted northward along and ahead of the surface low moving
northeastward over the area. The threat of damaging winds, large
hail, and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out across
these areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators and storm spotters may be needed tonight through midday
on Wednesday.

19