Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1242 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

.AVIATION...

Reduced ceilings and visibility are widespread across the Four-
States region this morning, as Tropical Storm Delta is moving
through the region. Ceilings will remain MVFR/IFR, as will VIS, as
heavy rain expands east. Winds will also increase across the
region into today. Drops into LIFR will be possible with the
heavier rain activity. Things will begin to clear out into VFR
from west to east over the next 24 hours.

/44/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1020 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020/

UPDATE...

Hurricane Delta made landfall earlier this evening and is moving
northeast across central Louisiana. Radar imagery is showing light
to moderate showers along and southeast of a line from Broaddus,
TX to Shreveport, LA to El Dorado, AR. Rainfall and increasing
wind speeds are expected overnight across the area. Areas of flash
flooding will be possible as the storm continues to push to the
northeast. Otherwise, the forecast for the remainder of the area
appears to be on track for tonight. /33/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday night/

Cloudy and becoming breezy with gusts in the teens and lower 20s.
Rainfall is really picking up over deep E TX and much of LA with
an inch or two in the bucket today and plenty more to come with
training as the huge slug of tropical moisture pivots around the
arriving storm core nearing the coast now. As of 4pm, Hurricane
Delta was at 105 mph sustained winds and gusts to 125 mph and the
storm now 35 miles SSW of Cameron LA. LAT 29.3N and LON 93.2W.

Tonight will be windy with potential flooding rains the main
threat as the storm is expected to be in NE LA with still tropical
storm force winds by 7am. Overnight temps will keep mostly in the
mid to upper 60s. Most of the wind will be during overnight for
us with a lake wind added this morning on the fringe of our
tropical storm warning until 18Z. Strong gust will begin to
subside before daybreak. The SPC continues a general risk for
thunder over our area through 12Z.

The good news is that the heavier rainfall will be ahead of the
storm so most we will see will fall this late day and overnight.
The storm is undergoing stress now with some wind sheer and looks
to be trending downward already with the warming aloft just
offshore. In the wake of Delta, sunshine will make for a warmer
afternoon in Texas in the mid 80s where little rain has or will
fall, the ground will heat quickly. Obviously, the most wet
grounds will keep cooler in the mid 70s by late day in LA and AR.
Looks like low to mid 60s for low by daybreak on Sunday. /24/

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday Night/

We are not expecting inclement weather conditions over the long term
period. Unfortunately, there will be the return of a bit of heat to
the region for Sunday and Monday as lower tropospheric flow vectors
in the wake of Delta prevail from a climatologically warm westerly
direction. Expect highs these days mainly in the mid to upper 80s
with enough humidity to re-introduce the notion of a 'heat index'
back into the forecast.

Through next week, model consensus is trending toward a large scale
weather pattern representing more and and more eastern CONUS upper
level troughing as time goes on. This pattern will push a few,
largely dry, cold fronts in our direction. The first one will be
trying to move in on Monday, although confidence is not high there
will be enough steam in the flow pattern to push it all the way
through the Four State region. However, not to worry, confidence is
higher that another, stronger, cold front should be able to push
through the region in the Thursday through Thursday night time
frame. There is an outside chance of some precipitation associated
with this front, but for now we have continued with a dry forecast
and will monitor for trends.

In short, expect above normal temperatures at the start of the
period with readings trending toward pleasant seasonal normals by
the end of next work week. /50/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  89  69  88 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  66  85  68  89 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  61  88  67  86 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  63  88  68  86 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  64  84  66  86 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  64  91  70  88 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  63  92  69  89 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  64  92  69  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ072-073.

     Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for ARZ073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ001>006-
     010>012.

     Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for LAZ004>006-011>014-
     017>022.

     Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ013-014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ153-166.

     Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for TXZ167.

     Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ167.

&&

24/33/44/50

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
241 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020

ARZ072-LAZ001>003-010-TXZ153-165-166-101945-
Columbia-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-De Soto-Shelby-Angelina-
San Augustine-
241 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas, northwest Louisiana and east Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Locations in Deep East Texas into Northwest Louisiana and South
Central Arkansas along a line from San Augustine, to Shreveport,
to Magnolia will see widespread and occasionally heavy showers
tonight as the remnants of Hurricane Delta move inland.
Significant flash flooding is not anticipated, but there could be
water rises in low spots and in creeks, streams, and ditches. In
addition, winds from the east and northeast tonight will increase
to a range a 15 to 25 mph with the potential for an occasional
gust up to 40 mph. The winds may be enough to down some tree
branches and uproot a few trees so isolated power outages cannot
be ruled out. However, the strongest winds in association with
Delta will remain off to the southeast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

The remnants of Delta should move well north and east of the
region during the day Saturday and winds and rainfall will be on
the decrease around, or shortly after, daybreak.

Otherwise, no additional hazardous weather is expected at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters is not expected to be needed at
this time.

ARZ073-LAZ004>006-011-012-101945-
Union-Claiborne-Lincoln-Red River-Bienville-
241 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, north central Louisiana and northwest Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

These portions of North Central Louisiana and South Central
Arkansas will see widespread and occasionally heavy rains tonight
as the remnants of Hurricane Delta move inland and weaken to a
tropical storm. A Flash Flood Watch in effect and flash flooding
is possible in these areas by late tonight as additional rainfall
amounts from 3 to 5 inches are anticipated before precipitation
ceases by midday tomorrow. In addition winds from the east and
northeast tonight will increase to a range a 15 to 25 mph with the
potential for an occasional gust up to 40 mph through through the
mid morning hours tomorrow. The winds may be enough to down some
tree branches and uproot a few trees so isolated power outages
cannot be ruled out. However, the strongest winds in association
with Delta will remain off to the south.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

The remnants of Delta should move well north and east of the
region late in the day Saturday and winds and rainfall will be on
the decrease around, or shortly after, the late morning hours.

Otherwise, no additional hazardous weather is expected at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters may be needed late tonight through
the first half of Saturday. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local,
state, and CDC guidelines.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070-071-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-
136>138-149>152-101945-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-
Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-
241 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

While isolated to scattered showers and localized north to
northeasterly wind gusts to 20 mph will be possible just about
everywhere tonight across East Texas, extreme Southeast Oklahoma,
and portions of Southwest Arkansas tonight, hazardous weather is
expected to remain to the southeast of these locations. Expect
rains and winds to be quickly on the decrease from the west
around, or a little before, daybreak Saturday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters should not be needed at this time.

LAZ013-014-017>022-TXZ167-101945-
Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-
241 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Louisiana, northwest Louisiana and east Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

These portions of Deep East Texas and Central and Northeast
Louisiana will see widespread and often heavy rains tonight as
the remnants of Hurricane Delta move inland and weaken to a
tropical storm. A Flash Flood Watch in effect and Flash flooding
is possible in these areas, especially overnight, as additional
rainfall amounts from 3 to 6 inches are anticipated and isolated
additional amounts up to 8 inches cannot be ruled out across
Central Louisiana. In addition winds tonight will increase to a
range a 25 to 40 mph with the potential for an occasional gust up
to 50 or 60 mph by mid evening and through the overnight. These
winds should be enough to break tree limbs and uproot many trees
in consideration of the damp soil. Scattered to numerous power
outages are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

The remnants of Delta should move well north and east of the
region late in the day Saturday and winds and rainfall will be on
the decrease around, or shortly after, the late morning hours.

Otherwise, no additional hazardous weather is expected at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters may be needed late tonight through
the first half of Saturday. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local,
state, and CDC guidelines.

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
221 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 AM     TROPICAL STORM   WINNFIELD               31.92N 92.64W
10/10/2020                   WINN               LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALL OVER THE PARISH ON HIGHWAYS
            84, 167, AND 156.

&&

09

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
226 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 AM     TROPICAL STORM   DRY PRONG               31.58N 92.53W
10/10/2020                   GRANT              LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY 167 FLOODED NEAR DRY PRONG.

&&

09

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
227 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 AM     FLASH FLOOD      POLLOCK                 31.52N 92.41W
10/10/2020                   GRANT              LA   PUBLIC

            HWY 8 FLOODED NEAR POLLOCK.

&&

09

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
236 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE GRAYSON            32.06N 92.10W
10/10/2020                   CALDWELL           LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AUDITORIUM AND A COUPLE OF CLASSROOMS OF
            CALDWELL PARISH HIGH SCHOOL ARE BEING
            FLOODED.

&&

09

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
238 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     TROPICAL STORM   4 SSW CLARKS            31.98N 92.18W
10/10/2020                   CALDWELL           LA   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE IN KELLY.

&&

09

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
245 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     TROPICAL STORM   EROS                    32.39N 92.42W
10/10/2020                   JACKSON            LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN EROS.

&&

09