Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Shreveport, LA

478 
WGUS54 KSHV 170031
FFWSHV
OKC089-TXC037-387-170215-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-200517T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
731 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southwestern McCurtain County in southeastern Oklahoma...
  Northwestern Bowie County in northeastern Texas...
  Central Red River County in northeastern Texas...

* Until 915 PM CDT.

* At 731 PM CDT, emergency management reported thunderstorms 
  producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 
  inches of rain have fallen with isolated higher amounts in some 
  areas. Flash flooding is already occurring.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Emergency management.

  IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
           highways, streets and underpasses as well as other
           drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Clarksville, Boxelder, Idabel, De Kalb, Manchester, Dalby Springs, 
  Wright City, Valliant, Avery, Millerton, Annona, Garvin, Bryarly, 
  English, Harris, Albion, Negley, Silver City, Beaverdams and 
  Goodlake.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. 
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately. 
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate 
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 9513 3414 9497 3364 9449 3362 9447
      3331 9470 3361 9509 3378 9530

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
452 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

.UPDATE...

A quick update to include Tornado Watch 191 for the northern half
of the region through 9 PM this evening along with a Flash Flood
Watch for much of the same area including the northern half of NE
Texas, SW Arkansas, and the adjacent parishes in extreme northern
Louisiana. The Flash Flood Watch is in effect through 7 AM Sunday.

/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday Night/

Convection has increased significantly this afternoon as heating
influences have helped destabilize the atmosphere with an upper
trough pivoting eastward into the region, allowing for steeper
lapse rates aloft and more upscale growth of these thunderstorms.
Our biggest concern this afternoon is with some weakly rotating
storms and possible brief spin-up tornadoes with a few tornado
warnings having already been issued thus far. Favorable conditions
will continue through the remainder of the afternoon and into the
early evening hours as a sfc low continues to drift eastward into
the region, providing for modest low-level shear with 0-1km shear
values near 200 m2/s2. Aside from the tornado potential, we also
continue to monitor rain rates across NE Texas and SE Oklahoma
where the heaviest rainfall has occurred so far this afternoon.
Training storms haven't really been an issue up to this point, but
still cannot rule out some brief heavy rainfall that could produce
isolated areas of localized flooding. However, it doesn't appear
that a Flash Flood Watch is needed at the moment but this threat
will continue to be closely monitored over the next several hours.

Through tonight, look for convection to continue spreading farther
north and east as the upper trough swings overhead along with the
associated low pressure center aloft and at the sfc. Therefore,
have maintained high PoPs areawide through the overnight period
with temperatures gradually cooling back down into the 60s. Rain
chances will remain quite high for much of the region on through
Sunday before convection gradually begins to diminish from west to
east late in the day through Sunday night. Temperatures will range
from the upper 70s to near 80 degrees for highs on Sunday before
cooling back into the 60s again overnight as clouds clear from the
NW to SE. Cool NW winds will prevail through Sunday night and help
push temperatures even cooler across our northern zones with mid
to upper 50s expected by early Monday morning.

/19/

LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday Night/

By the start of the upcoming work week, our current upper level
trough will be well east of our region and will eventually be
absorbed by a vigorous upper level trough that will become cut off
from the westerlies as it moves southward from the Ohio Valley into
the Tenn Valley by Tue with the trough moving very little into Thu.
On the backside of this trough will be an expansive ridge of high
pressure in the upper levels that will extend as far south as the
Mexican Plateau and as far north as the Upper Plains into the Great
Lakes. This trough will have a warming influence across our region
with highs in the 80s through much of the upcoming week but a drying
influence as well.

Some medium range members are trying to suggest pops increasing
again as we head into the late week and upcoming weekend and while
that may very well be the case, will stay close to the NBM which is
taking its cues from the drier ECMWF and CMC suggesting a stronger
upper ridge in place across the Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley
through at least Sat of next week.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 119 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020/

AVIATION...

For the 16/18Z TAF period, mostly MVFR cigs are currently observed
at our area terminals this afternoon with this extensive low cloud
cover expanding north and east ahead of an upper trough and closed
low across East Texas. Expect showers and thunderstorms to become
more numerous this afternoon and through this evening as the upper
trough and the center of the low shift farther east into the area.
Showers will continue through much of Sunday morning with embedded
thunderstorms still possible as the trough moves directly overhead
and winds begin to veer more W/NW as the sfc low shifts eastward.
Wind speeds will vary through the period, generally ranging from
5-15 kts with some higher gusts near 20kts possible. Cigs will be
slow to improve behind the trough and passing low with IFR/MVFR
conditions likely prevailing through the remainder of the period.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  79  63  83 /  90  70  10  10
MLU  67  78  63  82 /  80  80  30  10
DEQ  63  81  57  82 /  90  50  10   0
TXK  64  79  60  81 /  90  60  10   0
ELD  65  78  60  82 /  90  80  10   0
TYR  64  80  61  83 /  90  40  10   0
GGG  65  80  61  84 /  90  60  10   0
LFK  66  81  63  86 /  60  50  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>072.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for LAZ001>004.

OK...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138.

&&

19/13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
524 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-171030-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
524 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Thunderstorms will increase across the region today and tonight.
Although widespread severe weather is not expected, a few
isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail
cannot be ruled out. In addition, pockets of heavy rainfall will
also be possible today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Coverage of thunderstorms will diminish Sunday before moving east
of our region by Sunday night. Otherwise, some chances for
thunderstorms may return late in the work week. However, no
hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters should not be needed through
tonight. Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
118 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

TXZ108-161900-
Franklin TX-
118 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL 200
PM CDT...

At 118 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mount Vernon, or 13 miles south of Hagansport, moving northwest at 20
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hagansport, Mount Vernon and Purley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3338 9530 3337 9528 3338 9527 3337 9526
      3337 9523 3321 9512 3315 9513 3306 9526
      3311 9531 3337 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 143DEG 19KT 3316 9523

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
207 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

TXZ097-112-162000-
Cass TX-Bowie TX-
207 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CASS AND
SOUTHWESTERN BOWIE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 207 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Maud, or 14 miles south of New Boston, moving northwest at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dalby Springs, Bryans Mill and Spring Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3326 9432 3319 9442 3337 9472 3350 9452
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 138DEG 25KT 3325 9440

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
208 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

TXZ097-112-162000-
Cass TX-Bowie TX-
208 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CASS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL BOWIE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 208 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Linden, or 10 miles west of Atlanta, moving northwest
at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Douglassville, Bryans Mill, Spring Hill and Red Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3314 9426 3308 9434 3328 9466 3343 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 138DEG 25KT 3313 9434

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
343 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     TORNADO          5 SE REDWATER           33.31N 94.20W
05/16/2020                   BOWIE              TX   OTHER FEDERAL

            GAME WARDEN REPORTS LARGE TORNADO ON LAKE
            WRIGHT PATMAN.

&&

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
416 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

ARZ071-072-LAZ003-004-162200-
Lafayette AR-Columbia AR-Claiborne LA-Webster LA-
416 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAFAYETTE AND
SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES...NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER AND
NORTHWESTERN CLAIBORNE PARISHES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 416 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Cotton Valley, or 12 miles north of Minden, moving
north at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Springhill, Cullen, Cotton Valley, Sarepta, Taylor, Shongaloo,
Bussey, Macedonia, Welcome, Evergreen, Leton, Walkerville, State Line
and Horsehead.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for southwestern
Arkansas...and northwestern Louisiana.

LAT...LON 3270 9335 3313 9358 3322 9328 3275 9315
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 161DEG 24KT 3280 9328

20