Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
409 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday night/

Cloudy and mild with mid to upper 60s most everywhere. The warm
front appears to be edging into Lufkin over toward Alexandria
where most of the heavy-duty thunderstorms continue up to along
I-20. Temps south of the front are in the low to mid 70s. Further
north storms are a little more well behaved.

Much of this activity will be shifting ENE across the region with
still more development yet to come along the dry line approaching
which is just west of DFW at this time. 40 degree dew points are
colliding with low 70s dew points and will be seeing continued
development of showers and thunderstorms into the evening and
overnight to some extent. Overnight lows will be averaging around
the 60 degree mark and high tomorrow will be in the upper 70s and
lower 80s. Northwest winds will continue behind the boundary with
slightly drier air moving into the area. We will clear out a good
bit with seasonal 50s for lows Thursday night. /24/

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday night/

Friday will be warmer with low to mid 80s for the most part as our
winds back to the south. The cold front in the this longwave
trough pattern will finally be moving our way late in the day and
during the evening. And with that, we will see clouds increasing
during the late day with more showers and thunderstorms moving our
way and spreading down over all our four state area to some
extent.

The surface winds will begin to shift to SW later in the day and
then turn to NW by sunset along the I-30 corridor as a weak
surface low swings down the Red River valley, moisture starved
yes, but still enough to squeeze out some more brief heavy rain
and potentially some hail stones with the cooling of the
atmosphere as upper level heights aloft fall off.

The SPC has a marginal risk out for their day 3 outlook for our
four state area along and north of I-20. These evening showers
and thunderstorms will continue expanding down over the area with
the front practically out of the area shortly after midnight. The
NW flow will deepen and push out the remaining wet weather before
daybreak on Saturday.

Then fresh high pressure sprawls down the MS river valley with a
cooler trend despite the sunshine expected over the weekend as a
1020mb surface high settles down over the mid south. This air mass
will drop into the SE U.S. and keep the rain shields up for us to
start the work week. The next chance for arrives late in the long
term with another cold front by midweek. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 116 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020/

AVIATION...

For the ArkLaTex terminals few without thunder at this time and
many will prevail for the afternoon with copious lightning and
hail in many of these strong thunderstorms. Much is going to
transistion from elevated to surface based with some damaging
winds or isold tornadoes possible. Weak slow moving dryline push
so without a good fropa this will TS activity will linger
overnight to some extent. S winds will shift to SW and W/NW late
this cycle and on Thurs. The fropa will be along Fri evening with
more isold thunder. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  78  56  83 /  90   0   0  20
MLU  65  78  56  83 / 100  10   0  10
DEQ  57  78  54  78 /  80  10   0  50
TXK  59  76  55  78 /  90   0   0  30
ELD  61  77  54  81 / 100   0   0  20
TYR  59  80  59  82 /  50   0   0  20
GGG  59  79  56  83 /  60   0   0  20
LFK  63  81  58  86 /  70   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-059-
     060-070-071.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ071>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ001-002-010-
     017.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ138-149>153-
     165>167.

&&

24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
248 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

ARZ050-051-059>061-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136-137-
232000-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-McCurtain-
Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-
Marion-Smith-Gregg-
248 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Strong to severe thunderstorms, some of which could produce large
hail, damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes are through the
remainder of the afternoon before ending later tonight. In
addition, heavy downpours will likely accompany this storm system
with one to three inches of rainfall possible today through
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
region Friday into Friday Night but these storms are not expected
to be strong or severe at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will be needed through tonight.
Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

ARZ071>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ138-149>153-165>167-
232000-
Lafayette-Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-
De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-
Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
248 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire region from 2 pm
this afternoon until 7 am Thursday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms, some of which could produce large
hail, damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes are the remainder
of this afternoon before ending later tonight, especially south of
Interstate Twenty. In addition, excessive heavy rainfall will
likely accompany this storm system with one to three inches of
rainfall possible today through tonight. The ground remains
saturated from previous rainfall last weekend. Thus, flash
flooding will be of particular concern today into tonight,
especially across flood prone and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
region Friday into Friday Night but these storms are not expected
to be strong or severe at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will be needed through tonight.
Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 WSW CHIRENO           31.43N 94.48W
04/22/2020                   NACOGDOCHES        TX   911 CALL CENTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM
            11 WNW BROADDUS. TREE DOWN ON CR4945.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
405 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WSW APPLEBY           31.70N 94.68W
04/22/2020                   NACOGDOCHES        TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING ON SB US 259.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
408 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NACOGDOCHES             31.61N 94.65W
04/22/2020                   NACOGDOCHES        TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            FLOODING ON NORTH ST FROM CREEK BEND TO
            PINE.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
416 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1242 PM     HAIL             VIVIAN                  32.87N 93.99W
04/22/2020  E1.00 INCH       CADDO              LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

20

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
417 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

03:39 PM     HAIL             6 W NACOGDOCHES         31.61N 94.75W
04/22/2020  E1.75 INCH       NACOGDOCHES        TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
423 PM CDT WED APR 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             11 E ALTO               31.66N 94.88W
04/22/2020  E1.75 INCH       NACOGDOCHES        TX   PUBLIC

&&

AS