Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
537 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

.AVIATION...
A frontal boundary bringing strong convection will move across the
region overnight with TSRA conditions expected from 11/06Z to
11/12Z. South winds 15 to 20 knots to become southwest to west
overnight behind the cold front. Expect stronger winds in and
around convection. Showers and thunderstorms to diminish after
11/12Z with MVFR ceilings lingering through much of the day across
most TAF sites. Otherwise, northwest winds to increase to near 20
knots with higher gusts on Saturday. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday Night/

..Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Expected Tonight...

Our widespread severe weather event that has been much-advertised
all this week is now imminent as an intense line of thunderstorms
continues to congeal along and east of I-35 in north central Texas
and eastern Oklahoma. This line will continue to intensify as it
accelerates eastward toward our region over the next several hours.
However, our more immediate concern will be for the development of
of some discrete storms in the form of supercells with an enhanced
tornadic threat should they develop in this increasingly sheared
environment with sfc-1km SRH values expected to surge to between
300-400 m2/s2. Add in the increasing instability aloft with the
advancing upper level trough as lapse rates near 8 degrees C/km,
and MUCAPE values push 1500 J/kg if not higher across the western
parts of the region. What little capping inversion may still exist
this afternoon should continue to erode over the next few hours,
and sfc-based storms should begin to fire well to the east of the
main line of storms to our west. The primary concern should these
storms initiate will be for rotating supercells and tornadoes as
the storms tap into an increasingly unstable and moisture rich
environment. A few high-end tornadoes will certainly be possible
given the parameters described above, and the environment would
allow for them to be sustained for some time as long-lived/long
track tornadoes can't be ruled out. This threat should continue
through the early evening hours preceding the main line of storms
approaching from the west.

By mid to late evening, the line of storms should begin to enter
our western zones in NE Texas and SE Oklahoma as the main threat
transitions more to damaging winds with some embedded tornadoes
still possible throughout the remainder of the event overnight
into early Saturday morning as the the line accelerates eastward.
The threat of 70-80 mph straight-line winds appears to be a threat
nearly areawide, prompting the very large Moderate Risk area which
covers practically all of our region. The other element of this
event that is particularly concerning is that it will be a mostly
overnight event, and threat of extreme straight-line winds will be
for downed trees and power lines in addition to the continued risk
of tornadoes within the QLCS. Heavy rainfall along the line could
also result in some localized flooding, and higher rain amounts
are still expected across our far northern zones where 2-3 inches
may fall with isolated higher amounts. Therefore, have maintained
the existing Flash Flood Watch for these areas through 6 AM Sat.
By that time, the line should be exiting our eastern zones with
the severe threat diminishing. Additional showers and sub-severe
storms will remain possible through the rest of Saturday morning,
mainly across our eastern and northern zones as the upper trough
and cold front continue to shift east.

Convection should completely exit the region later in the morning
on Saturday with clouds gradually clearing from SW to NE through
the afternoon. Cold air advection behind the front will result in
temperatures falling throughout the day as highs will likely occur
in the morning hours ahead of the front. A cold night will follow
on Saturday night with lows temperatures dropping into the mid to
upper 20s north to lower 30s south under clear skies and light
winds.

/19/

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday Night/

Swly flow aloft ahead of a shortwave embedded within a broad-scale
trof axis in place across the wrn CONUS will become re-established
across our area. Shortwave will pass to our n relatively quietly
Sunday, as the boundary layer will not have ample return of moisture
for any convection. However, sly flow to return Monday ahead of yet
another embedded disturbance. Temps and moisture look to recover,
especially as a warm front moves back nwd into our area. Rain
chances to increase as a result, especially across the sern half of
the area. Shortwave to pass to our n leaving the boundary and rain
chances to linger through midweek. Main trof axis to finally push
ewd across the Southern Plains late Wednesday into Thursday,
bringing a brief cool down and reprieve from rain chances. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  55  30  58 / 100  30   0   0
MLU  62  63  31  58 / 100  60   0  10
DEQ  45  45  25  53 / 100  40   0   0
TXK  49  49  27  54 / 100  30   0   0
ELD  56  57  28  56 / 100  50   0   0
TYR  42  45  31  57 / 100  10   0   0
GGG  47  47  30  58 / 100  10   0   0
LFK  53  53  32  60 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

     Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ050-051-059>061.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for OKZ077.

     Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ096.

&&

05/12/19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1129 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

ARZ050-051-059>061-OKZ077-TXZ096-111730-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-McCurtain-Red River-
1129 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Storms will begin to develop as early as this afternoon across
portions of the region north of the I 30 corridor. Some of these
storms will produce widespread damaging winds, tornadoes, large
hail, and localized flash flooding. These threats will diminish
prior to sunrise Saturday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday
ahead of another cold front. However, no hazardous weather is
expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, amateur radio operators, and
storm spotters, will be needed late this afternoon through
tonight across the region.

ARZ070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ097-108>112-124>126-
136>138-149>153-165>167-111730-
Miller-Lafayette-Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-
Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-
Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-
Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-
Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1129 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Storms will begin to develop as early as this afternoon across
portions of the region. Some of these storms will produce
widespread damaging winds, tornadoes, large hail, and locally
heavy rainfall, especially with the mail line of storms that will
move through tonight. The severe weather threat will diminish
from west to east across the region late tonight and early
Saturday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will return the
region Monday through Wednesday. However, no hazardous weather is
expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, amateur radio operators, and
storm spotters, will be needed this afternoon and tonight.

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
736 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

ARZ050-051-059-110215-
Howard AR-Sevier AR-Little River AR-
736 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LITTLE RIVER...
SEVIER AND NORTHWESTERN HOWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CST...

At 736 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Winthrop, or near Horatio, moving north at 55 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
De Queen, Horatio, Umpire, Lockesburg, Winthrop, Gillham, Athens,
Geneva, Central, Lebanon, Burg, Provo, West Line, Bellview, West Otis
and Cerrogordo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CST for southwestern
Arkansas...and southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3435 9394 3430 9393 3374 9426 3381 9448
      3404 9448 3419 9444 3419 9424 3436 9425
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 202DEG 48KT 3387 9440

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
909 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

TXZ108-124-110345-
Wood TX-Franklin TX-
909 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND
NORTHWESTERN WOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CST...

At 909 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Golden, or 8 miles northwest of Mineola, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mineola, Winnsboro, Quitman, Scroggins, Pleasant Grove, Golden,
Forest Hill, Alba, Yantis and Cypress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CST for northeastern
Texas.

LAT...LON 3296 9531 3307 9531 3302 9515 3299 9515
      3264 9553 3267 9557 3268 9559 3271 9561
      3272 9564 3296 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 0309Z 222DEG 44KT 3271 9562

33

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1003 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HOCHATOWN               34.20N 94.67W
01/10/2020                   MCCURTAIN          OK   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED DUE TO WATER OVER
            ROADS.

&&

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1003 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

ARZ050-051-059-060-070-TXZ096-097-110500-
Howard AR-Hempstead AR-Sevier AR-Little River AR-Miller AR-Bowie TX-
Red River TX-
1003 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LITTLE RIVER...HEMPSTEAD...
NORTHERN MILLER...EASTERN SEVIER...HOWARD...BOWIE AND SOUTHEASTERN
RED RIVER COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CST...

At 1002 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Umpire to 6 miles northeast of Broken Bow
to 9 miles southwest of Idabel to near Bagwell. Movement was to the
northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Texarkana, Hope, Wake Village, Ashdown, Nashville, New Boston,
Mineral Springs, Dierks, Foreman, Boxelder, Nash, Hooks, De Kalb,
Redwater, Maud, Red Lick, Lockesburg, Wilton, Blevins and Tollette.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CST for southwestern
Arkansas...southeastern Oklahoma...and northeastern Texas.

LAT...LON 3419 9392 3418 9382 3401 9382 3396 9346
      3352 9369 3327 9405 3331 9417 3327 9424
      3324 9423 3329 9447 3325 9462 3338 9483
      3339 9512 3368 9459 3366 9455 3363 9457
      3362 9449 3374 9448 3410 9411 3435 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 0402Z 173DEG 19KT 3427 9395 3408 9463 3382 9495 3370
9524

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1005 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BROKEN BOW              34.03N 94.74W
01/10/2020                   MCCURTAIN          OK   911 CALL CENTER

            ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1008 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

TXZ108>112-124-125-136-110515-
Upshur TX-Smith TX-Cass TX-Camp TX-Wood TX-Franklin TX-Morris TX-
Titus TX-
1008 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SMITH...NORTHWESTERN
CASS...FRANKLIN...WOOD...UPSHUR...MORRIS...TITUS AND CAMP COUNTIES
UNTIL 1115 PM CST...

At 1008 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Wilkerson to 6 miles west of Brownsboro.
These storms were moving northeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Tyler, Mount Pleasant, Gilmer, Mineola, Pittsburg, Winnsboro,
Hagansport, Leesburg, Lindale, Mount Vernon, Daingerfield, Quitman,
Hughes Springs, Lone Star, Naples, Big Sandy, Hawkins, Omaha, Cason
and Us 259 And I 30 Intersection.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CST for northeastern
Texas.

LAT...LON 3296 9531 3338 9530 3340 9488 3338 9482
      3332 9478 3331 9469 3325 9464 3329 9447
      3324 9423 3288 9471 3213 9546 3223 9549
      3230 9545 3236 9545 3248 9559 3269 9559
      3272 9563 3296 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 0408Z 067DEG 1KT 3333 9486 3227 9572

33