Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
548 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and tonight)
Issued at 331 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

A surface low pressure center are currently situated across the
Missouri/Arkansas border over south-central Missouri early this
afternoon. Extending northeast from the low center from just south
of the Branson area up towards central Shannon county into
southeast Missouri. A stark dewpoint and temperature gradient has
established across the front, with locations to its northwest
generally in the 50s ands dewpoints in the low to mid 40s while
portions of south-central Missouri south of the front have
temperatures holding steady in the mid to upper 60s with dewpoints
in the 50s.

The warm sector southeast of the front is made evident
by an expansive cumulus field. We have seen a few cumulus towers
try to initiate convection across south-central Missouri, but a
capping inversion is firmly in place and is likely to hold until
late this afternoon or early evening when a shortwave currently
over southern Kansas traverses over the front and aids in lift to
break the inversion.

As the front slowly slides east during the
evening, we should see scattered storm initiation tied to the
front in a favorable environment for rapid storm development,
primarily southeast of a Gainesville to Eminence, MO line. High
resolution model soundings point to a favorable environment for a
few splitting supercells given effective bulk shear of 35-45
knots, CAPE values solidly in the 1000-1500 range, steep lapse
rates in an elevated mixed layer, and a straight line hodograph
with ample clockwise turning in the low levels. From a severe
hazard perspective, significant hail sizes up to 2 inches in
diameter and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible
with the strongest storms. Even an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out this evening during a brief window. These threats are
also spelled out in the latest SPC outlook.

This severe threat is generally short lived as the surface low
pressure slides east of our area, taking the warm sector and
better upper level forcing with it. As a result, precipitation
quickly moves east of our southeast counties and ends overnight.
High pressure begins to make its presence felt by Tuesday morning
with clearing skies from west to east and low temperatures
falling into the mid to upper 30s across most of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

A generally quiet and warmer period of weather then becomes
established across the area through most of the week into next
weekend as split upper level flow brings northwesterly winds aloft
and a drier pattern into the region. Should see high temperatures
each day from Tuesday through this weekend remain above average
in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

One caveat during this period will be an upper level shortwave
traversing the lower Mississippi valley on the southern stream of
the split flow regime Wednesday night into early Thursday. Most
medium range models continue to point to our region remaining dry
as this wave passes to our south, but some shorter term models do
inch a thin band of light rain into our far southern Missouri
counties. As such, have held onto some low-end POPs for Wednesday
night to account for this. Regardless, accumulations should be
very light if we do see any precipitation.

Thursday through most of the weekend then again looks dry and
warmer as a ridge builds back into the central CONUS.

Model guidance then points to our next good rain chances returning
late next weekend into early next week on the back side of the
upper level ridge as an upper level wave traverses the northern
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 533 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

Beginning to see some storm initiation over south central
Missouri, but potential should remain east of the TAF sites,
including BBG. Storms will remain along and southeast of this
front as it slides eastwards throughout the evening.

MVFR ceilings for KSGF/KJLN will gradually improve to VFR this
evening as some mid level clouds hang around overnight, while
branson generally remains VFR. Expect clouds to clear from west to
east tomorrow morning as high pressure builds into southwest
Missouri. Winds should remain light and variable tonight before
shifting to westerly midway through tomorrow morning into tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rothstein
LONG TERM...Rothstein
AVIATION...Rothstein

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
727 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-040130-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
727 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

A stationary front is located across south central Missouri this
evening, generally along a Gainesville to West Plains to Winona,
Missouri line. Scattered strong to severe storm development will
continue to persist into the late evening along and south of this
front. The strongest storms will be capable of hail up to 2
inches in diameter, damaging wind gusts to 60 mph, and also the
possibility of an isolated tornado. The thunderstorm threat is
expected to end by tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No Hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed later today or tonight for
far south central Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Rothstein

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
704 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             WEST PLAINS             36.73N 91.85W
03/02/2020  E0.70 INCH       HOWELL             MO   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
728 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     HAIL             3 NNE THAYER            36.57N 91.52W
03/02/2020  E0.70 INCH       OREGON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL 3 MILES NE OF THAYER,
            MO ON HWY 19..

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
732 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     HAIL             HOUSTON                 37.33N 91.96W
03/02/2020  E0.88 INCH       TEXAS              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
739 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     HAIL             5 E BIRCH TREE          37.00N 91.41W
03/02/2020  E1.00 INCH       SHANNON            MO   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC PICTURE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
755 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             3 SW WINONA             36.98N 91.36W
03/02/2020  M0.70 INCH       SHANNON            MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SOME DIME SIZE HAIL 3 SW WINONA.

&&

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