Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
306 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue into
early this evening as a short wave trough and associated surface
cold front continue to push southeast across the region. MLCAPE
values in the 800-1100 J/kg range in conjunction with steep mid-
level lapse rates and 40 knots of deep layer shear will support
some quarter-size hail potential.

Short-term models and soundings are also indicating nearly dry
adiabatic low-levels beneath relatively high LCLs. This will be
supportive of some damaging wind gust potential, especially where
cold pool conglomeration occurs with clusters and line segments.

This activity will then begin to wane across south-central
Missouri in the 2-3Z time frame with the loss of daytime heating.
The rest of tonight then looks fairly quiet. There could again be
some fog late tonight primarily across southwest Missouri. We went
close to the model blend for lows tonight with most areas falling
into the middle or upper 40s.

Tuesday then looks pleasant as surface high pressure slides
southeast along the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. We have gone
slightly above the model blend for highs with most areas ranging
from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

The next storm system will then take shape starting Tuesday night
as strong upper level energy ejects into the southern high Plains.
We should see a large area of showers and thunderstorms overspread
the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas from late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning as a low-level jet veers into the
region beneath the left-exit region of an upper level jet streak.

Showers and thunderstorms are then expected to persist for much of
Wednesday and Wednesday evening as that upper level energy tracks
through the central and southern Plains and into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley. Locally heavy rainfall is a concern given high
moisture availability, deep tropospheric ascent and convective
elements. The good news here is that we can take a bit of rainfall
given the recent green-up.

At this time, the severe potential mainly looks like it will be
south of the Missouri Ozarks with perhaps the exception of far
southern Missouri. The track of the surface low and amount of
destabilization that can occur will dictate the eventual severe
threat.

Global models then indicate yet another system impacting the
region as we get into the late Thursday night and Friday time
frame. Model consistency has become a bit better with this
system, thus PoPs have been nudged up into the likely range.

Temperatures from midweek through next Monday will be near or
slightly below normal. We still see no frost/freeze potential over
the next seven days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

Scattered thunderstorms are expected into this evening as a cold
front moves southeast through the region. Brief MVFR conditions
can be expected with storms along with gusty and erratic winds.

VFR conditions are then primarily expected from mid-evening
through Tuesday morning. There is some potential for fog
development across far southwestern Missouri. We are thinking this
will not affect the TAF sites at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1239 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-211745-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1239 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
 and early evening. A few of these storms may become strong to
 severe and produce hail up to the size of quarters and localized
 wind gusts up to 60 mph. Cloud to ground lightning will also be
 a potential hazard.

 Non-thunderstorm wind gusts up to 30 mph are expected this
 afternoon, mainly across western Missouri and southeastern
 Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

 Additional thunderstorms will be possible from late Tuesday
 night into early Thursday and again towards next weekend as a
 pair of storm systems track across the region. Locally heavy
 rainfall will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed into early this evening
  across most of the outlook area.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schaumann

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
419 PM CDT MON APR 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             4 S POMONA              36.82N 91.91W
04/20/2020  U0.50 INCH       HOWELL             MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: HALF-INCH (0.50 IN.).

&&

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