Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Springfield, MO

809 
WWUS53 KSGF 272101
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
401 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

MOC059-167-272130-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0255.000000T0000Z-200927T2130Z/
Dallas MO-Polk MO-
401 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL DALLAS AND NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES...

At 401 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Buffalo, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Bennett Spring State Park...      Buffalo...
Louisburg...                      Windyville...
Plad...                           Goodson...
Pumpkin Center...                 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3772 9286 3769 9285 3762 9285 3765 9326
      3780 9325 3783 9286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 269DEG 30KT 3773 9314 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Burchfield

723 
WWUS53 KSGF 272119
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
419 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

MOC167-272128-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0255.000000T0000Z-200927T2130Z/
Polk MO-
419 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3772 9286 3769 9285 3762 9285 3764 9307
      3781 9307 3783 9286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 269DEG 30KT 3773 9295 

$$

MOC059-272130-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0255.000000T0000Z-200927T2130Z/
Dallas MO-
419 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTY...

At 418 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northeast of
Buffalo, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Bennett Spring State Park...      Windyville...
Plad...                           Pumpkin Center...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3772 9286 3769 9285 3762 9285 3764 9307
      3781 9307 3783 9286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 269DEG 30KT 3773 9295 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Burchfield

050 
WWUS53 KSGF 272130
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
430 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

MOC059-272140-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0255.000000T0000Z-200927T2130Z/
Dallas MO-
430 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3772 9286 3769 9285 3762 9285 3764 9307
      3781 9307 3783 9286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 269DEG 30KT 3773 9284 

$$

Burchfield

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
219 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tonight)

A cold front was entering the Ozarks this afternoon from the
northwest, forcing an area of deep convection along this feature.
Showers and thunderstorms will eventually become widespread in
nature, and impact nearly all locations across the region. A few
of the most intense storms will be capable of producing damaging
wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail.

Instability continues to tick up this afternoon as a belt of 2000
j/kg mixed layer cape evolves across southwest Missouri by 22Z.
With deep layer shear ranging from 30 to 40 knots, this
combination will be capable of organizing a few storms. Some of
the latest high resolution models actually have some low level
cape evolving, however, very little low level helicity will be in
play.

We will be launching a 20z RAOB to provide the evening shift and
users with a snapshot of our environment, and take another look at
the low level cape/shear combination.

For tonight, showers and thunderstorms will continue behind the
front, eventually exiting south central Missouri by Monday
morning. Much colder air will spread in behind the front, causing
temperatures to fall into the 40s across most locations tonight.

Look for rainfall amounts to range from 0.30 to 1.00 inch by early
Monday morning. No flash flooding is expected at this time due to
the progressive nature of the storms and the very dry antecedent
conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)

Autumn air will spread in from the northwest, causing some of the
coldest temperatures we've observed since April. For Monday, highs
will struggle to warm out of the mid 60s.

In addition to the colder weather, will come an extended period
of dry conditions with no precipitation chances going from Monday
through next weekend. This dry spell will be accompanied by a
continental airmass with Canadian origin. Deep northwest flow will
persist through the upcoming weekend, forcing another cold front
to approach by Thursday. This will cool temperatures by a few
degrees for Thursday into Friday.

No freezing temperatures are expected this week, however we could
see some reading into the upper 30s Thursday and Friday nights,
especially in the eastern Ozarks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of southwest Missouri can expect stormy
weather late this afternoon and through the evening hours. Pilots
will need to monitor radar trends as severe weather will be
possible in some of the more intense storms.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely linger into the late
evening, and overnight period over some locations. Flight
conditions will be lowered as storms directly impact airfields.

A cold front approaching from the northwest is the main forcing
mechanism with these storms, which will also cause surface winds
to shift to the northwest later tonight and through tomorrow.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Cramer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
156 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281900-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
156 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

An episode of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to occur
over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks late this
afternoon and through the evening hours. The most intense storms
will be capable of producing pea to golf ball sized hail along
with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

Behind the front, northwest winds will gust between 20-30 MPH
late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today or tonight for
portions of extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Cramer