Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Springfield, MO

937 
WWUS53 KSGF 030000
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
600 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

MOC065-030030-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200303T0030Z/
Dent MO-
600 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN DENT COUNTY...

At 600 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles north of
Bunker, or 16 miles east of Salem, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Turtle...                         Boss...
Stone Hill...                     Howes Mill...
Gladden...                        

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3759 9131 3751 9131 3750 9122 3747 9122
      3746 9148 3756 9149 3769 9119 3769 9115
      3759 9116
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 266DEG 29KT 3756 9126 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Schaumann

410 
WWUS53 KSGF 030014
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
614 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

MOC065-030030-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200303T0030Z/
Dent MO-
614 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN DENT COUNTY...

At 614 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bunker, or 17
miles southeast of Salem, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Turtle...                         

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3746 9143 3753 9144 3757 9131 3751 9131
      3750 9122 3747 9122
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 270DEG 39KT 3750 9127 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Schaumann

116 
WWUS53 KSGF 030025
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
625 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

MOC065-030035-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200303T0030Z/
Dent MO-
625 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DENT COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 630 PM CST...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Springfield.

LAT...LON 3746 9143 3753 9144 3757 9131 3751 9131
      3750 9122 3747 9122
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 246DEG 22KT 3753 9119 

$$

Schaumann

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
332 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and tonight)
Issued at 331 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

A surface low pressure center are currently situated across the
Missouri/Arkansas border over south-central Missouri early this
afternoon. Extending northeast from the low center from just south
of the Branson area up towards central Shannon county into
southeast Missouri. A stark dewpoint and temperature gradient has
established across the front, with locations to its northwest
generally in the 50s ands dewpoints in the low to mid 40s while
portions of south-central Missouri south of the front have
temperatures holding steady in the mid to upper 60s with dewpoints
in the 50s.

The warm sector southeast of the front is made evident
by an expansive cumulus field. We have seen a few cumulus towers
try to initiate convection across south-central Missouri, but a
capping inversion is firmly in place and is likely to hold until
late this afternoon or early evening when a shortwave currently
over southern Kansas traverses over the front and aids in lift to
break the inversion.

As the front slowly slides east during the
evening, we should see scattered storm initiation tied to the
front in a favorable environment for rapid storm development,
primarily southeast of a Gainesville to Eminence, MO line. High
resolution model soundings point to a favorable environment for a
few splitting supercells given effective bulk shear of 35-45
knots, CAPE values solidly in the 1000-1500 range, steep lapse
rates in an elevated mixed layer, and a straight line hodograph
with ample clockwise turning in the low levels. From a severe
hazard perspective, significant hail sizes up to 2 inches in
diameter and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible
with the strongest storms. Even an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out this evening during a brief window. These threats are
also spelled out in the latest SPC outlook.

This severe threat is generally short lived as the surface low
pressure slides east of our area, taking the warm sector and
better upper level forcing with it. As a result, precipitation
quickly moves east of our southeast counties and ends overnight.
High pressure begins to make its presence felt by Tuesday morning
with clearing skies from west to east and low temperatures
falling into the mid to upper 30s across most of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

A generally quiet and warmer period of weather then becomes
established across the area through most of the week into next
weekend as split upper level flow brings northwesterly winds aloft
and a drier pattern into the region. Should see high temperatures
each day from Tuesday through this weekend remain above average
in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

One caveat during this period will be an upper level shortwave
traversing the lower Mississippi valley on the southern stream of
the split flow regime Wednesday night into early Thursday. Most
medium range models continue to point to our region remaining dry
as this wave passes to our south, but some shorter term models do
inch a thin band of light rain into our far southern Missouri
counties. As such, have held onto some low-end POPs for Wednesday
night to account for this. Regardless, accumulations should be
very light if we do see any precipitation.

Thursday through most of the weekend then again looks dry and
warmer as a ridge builds back into the central CONUS.

Model guidance then points to our next good rain chances returning
late next weekend into early next week on the back side of the
upper level ridge as an upper level wave traverses the northern
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

MVFR ceilings will be present across the area this afternoon
through mid evening as a stratocumulus cloud deck sits across
much of the region due to a stalled front over south central
Missouri. Expect some scattered showers to develop along and
behind this front during the afternoon and evening, but TAF sites
should see activity diminish by this evening. The better threat
for showers and thunderstorms will be east of the TAF sites on the
warm side of the front.

We will see conditions improve to VFR late this evening under
some lingering mid level clouds through the end of the TAF period
as high pressure builds into the region and precipitation moves
east.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rothstein
LONG TERM...Rothstein
AVIATION...Rothstein

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
353 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-032200-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
353 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

A stationary front is located across south central Missouri this
afternoon. A scattered storm development is expected late this
afternoon into evening, with the best chance for strong to severe
storms southeast of a Gainesville to Eminence, Missouri line. The
strongest storms will be capable of hail up to 2 inches in
diameter, damaging wind gusts to 60 mph, and also the possibility
of an isolated tornado. The thunderstorm threat is expected to end
by tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No Hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed later today or tonight for
south central Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Rothstein

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1220 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     LIGHTNING        5 S WHITE CHURCH        36.78N 91.78W
03/02/2020                   HOWELL             MO   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE TREE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING IN THE
            NIGHT. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW BATTLEFIELD        37.08N 93.40W
03/02/2020                   CHRISTIAN          MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WILSONS CREEK AT OLD LIMEY ROAD FLOODED.
            TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

MB