Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
619 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

A shield of cloud cover continues to linger over southeast Kansas
and southwest Missouri associated with an MCV centered along the
Kansas/Missouri border. Farther south, a weak surface front is
located over northern Arkansas. CAMs point to the combination of
these two features initiation isolated to scattered storms across
portions of far SE KS/SW MO and locations near the
Missouri/Arkansas border late this afternoon into the evening.
Cannot rule out an isolated strong to severe storm in the area of
better instability over far southern Missouri, though the best
chances may remain south of the CWA along the surface front. We
will keep a mention of the Marginal SPC risk for wind gusts and
large hail with the strongest storms.

Perhaps another focus of concern would be the potential of
repeated thunderstorm development and an attendant heavy rainfall
threat as a result over the same area as above later this evening
into tonight. Progged PWAT values over 2 inches and moisture
transport north of the surface front along the nose of a weak
low-level jet would certainly provide an ample moisture source for
efficient/heavy rainfall rates in any thunderstorm activity. Some
caveats to a heavy rainfall/flash flood threat would be the
expected lack of more widespread convection in addition to very dry
antecedent conditions, with flash flood guidance on the order of
several inches. As such, will include more of a limited flooding
mention on a more localized basis if storms were to train over
the same area for several hours.

Some scattered showers and thunderstorms may continue into Friday
morning and afternoon, particularly across the southern CWA, as
mid-level shortwave energy slides eastwards across the CWA. This
activity in addition to at least some lingering cloud cover
during the daytime hours may cap off high temperatures in the
upper 80s to mid 90s, with the highest temperatures across western
Missouri where clouds/precipitation would clear first. There was
enough uncertainty in the duration of the rain and cloud cover
tomorrow to hold off on a heat advisory mention, though the later
shifts tonight will need to take another look at this as newer
model data comes in and the situation becomes clearer. Regardless,
it will still be a hot and humid day with forecast heat indicies
in the 95-105 degree range.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

The main concern for this coming weekend into next week would be
the potential for worsening drought conditions over a large
portion of the area as the more active upper level pattern remains
to our north. As a result, rain chances remain very low and
isolated through at least Sunday with heat index values building
into the 100-105 range on both Saturday and Sunday. Heat
advisories may need introduction for portions of the area on
either one or both of these days.

For the early to middle part of next week, model guidance points
to some daily rain chances, particularly during the afternoons and
evenings. Despite the precipitation chances, QPF still looks
relatively low and not widespread. Temperatures look like they
will remain above average much of next week with highs in the low
to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

For the 00z TAFS...CAMS models still showing convective
development this evening over southern MO. Don't have that high of
confidence given the current CU field, although an upper level
shortwave is progged to push from west to east across the area. Do
have some prob30 groups in the TAFS after 09z, but may need to
update the VFR TAFS this evening if convection begins to look more
likely. For now will continue with VFR this evening and a small
potential of convection overnight into Friday morning with the
prob30 group. If convection develops, then some MVFR would be
possible within the convection.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rothstein
LONG TERM...Rothstein
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
801 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-180115-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
801 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible over
mainly locations south and east of the interstate 44 corridor. An
isolated severe storm will be possible through the evening. A
limited localized flash flooding risk will also be possible where
thunderstorms repeatedly move overhead for multiple hours as the
atmosphere supports heavy rainfall rates.

Heat index values in the 90s are expected to continue through
early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday morning into
afternoon. Isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms are expected
again on a daily basis, mainly Monday through Wednesday. These
storms are expected to be short lived with limited rainfall.

Afternoon heat index values in the upper 90s to near 105 degrees
are expected on a daily basis from this weekend into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
832 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

MOZ097-105-170215-
Ozark MO-Howell MO-
832 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OZARK AND WEST CENTRAL HOWELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 832 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gainesville, or 21 miles northeast of Bull Shoals, moving west at 5
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville...                    Hardenville...
Brixey...                         Sycamore...
Noble...                          Willhoit...
Tecumseh...                       Dora...
Rockbridge...                     Caulfield...
Zanoni...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3679 9204 3660 9204 3653 9253 3666 9272
      3680 9250
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 098DEG 6KT 3665 9240

Hatch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
854 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

MOZ093-170245-
Newton MO-
854 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTY UNTIL 945
PM CDT...

At 854 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Neosho, moving north at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Joplin...            Neosho...
Granby...                         Diamond...
Leawood...                        Silver Creek...
Saginaw...                        Newtonia...
Stark City...                     Shoal Creek Estates...
Ritchey...

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 44 between mile markers 8 and 9.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 15 and 35.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3676 9446 3705 9450 3706 9441 3704 9410
      3675 9423
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 192DEG 10KT 3682 9436

Hatch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
857 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

MOZ097-170245-
Howell MO-
857 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HOWELL COUNTY UNTIL 945
PM CDT...

At 857 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of West Plains. This storm was nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
West Plains...                    Willow Springs...
Pomona...                         Siloam Springs...
White Church...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3675 9210 3692 9209 3702 9184 3687 9177
      3668 9183
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 252DEG 4KT 3684 9198

Hatch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
907 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

MOZ098-170245-
Shannon MO-
907 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SHANNON COUNTY UNTIL 945
PM CDT...

At 906 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Summersville, or 10 miles northeast of Mountain View, moving east at
20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eminence...                       Summersville...
West Eminence...                  Alley Spring...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 9122 3702 9166 3720 9165 3733 9125
      3723 9114
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 255DEG 18KT 3712 9160

Hatch