Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
239 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
south of the Interstate 44 corridor in the vicinity of a weak
upper level disturbance. These storms should expand in coverage as
cold pools kick up new updrafts. A few of these storms may put
down some locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail up to
the size of quarters.

Meanwhile, the environment has been a bit more hostile for
thunderstorm development north of the I-44 corridor due to mid-
level dry air. This could change late this afternoon, especially
if outflow can get that far north. Again, a few of these storms
could produce some locally damaging wind gusts and hail (if they
can develop).

Attention will then turn to our north this evening and overnight
as there is some model consensus in developing a MCS. If this
system can develop, it would tend to dive south through portions
of the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas sometime later this
evening or overnight. There would be an attendant damaging wind
and locally heavy rainfall threat with these storms.

If this MCS can develop and is slow to clear the region, it is
quite possible we see activity lag into Thursday morning.
Regardless, there will be some additional potential for afternoon
pop-up storms in the heating of the day. We will have to keep tabs
on any remaining outflow boundaries for possible triggers for
initiation. The atmosphere will be supportive for a Marginal Risk
for severe storms on Thursday (mainly due to CAPE profiles).

As for temperatures, we went with the model blend for lows tonight
with most areas ranging from the middle 60s to around 70. Morning
storms and leftover clouds could play at least a small role for
highs on Thursday. We are still reasonably confident that highs
will reach the middle to upper 80s. Some locations out towards
I-49 may reach the 90 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

An upper level ridge will then build over the region from Friday
through the weekend. This will result in a continued warming trend
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Models have actually
trended 1-2 degrees warmer over the last few cycles. With dew
points expected to generally be in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
afternoon heat indices will range from 90-100 degrees.

A few pop-up storms will again be possible on Friday, especially
across the eastern Ozarks. The potential for storms should then
diminish (at least somewhat) this weekend as that ridge builds in.
We will have to watch for MCS potential from Friday night into
Saturday, especially across the eastern Ozarks if activity rides
down the eastern periphery of the ridge.

Models then continue to advertise the potential for the remnants
of Tropical Storm Cristobal moving up through the region early
next week. While the exact track and timing remain uncertain,
this system may carry some heavy rainfall potential. It certainly
bears watching given our recent heavy rainfall and the status of
regional lake levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

VFR ceilings will prevail for much of the period. However,
scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across south-
central Missouri. This may include the Branson and possibly the
Springfield aerodromes. There is then the potential for another
round of thunderstorms late tonight and Thursday morning, however
confidence in occurrence is rather low. MVFR and brief IFR
conditions can be expected around storms along with gusty and
erratic winds. Outside of thunderstorms, surface winds will
remain out of the south to southwest at 5-12 knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
246 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-042000-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
246 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue into early
  this evening, especially near and south of the Interstate 44
  corridor. A few storms may produce locally damaging wind
  gusts and hail up to the size of quarters.

  A complex of thunderstorms may then push south across
  portions of the outlook area this evening or later tonight.
  If these storms materialize, damaging winds and hail up to
  the size of quarters will be possible.

  Locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will be
  possible with all thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

  Scattered thunderstorms are expected from Thursday into
  Saturday, and possibly again early next week. A few strong
  to severe storms will be possible Thursday into Thursday
  night. Locally damaging wind gusts and hail to the size of
  quarters will be the primary potential severe weather
  hazards.

  Afternoon heat indices from 90 to 100 degrees are expected
  from Thursday through Sunday.

  There is then some potential for the remnants of Tropical
  Storm Cristobal to track north through the region early next
  week. While the track remains uncertain, there would be the
  potential for heavy rainfall in its vicinity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed into tonight for portions
  of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schaumann