Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
300 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

The 12Z SGF sounding showed a deep low layer saturated column with
precipitable water values of 1.26", while water vapor imagery shows
well defined nearly stationary circulation over eastern Oklahoma.
Current radar showing scattered convection across the area, with a
better concentration on the periphery of the upper low, aided in
part by an upper level jet rotating around the low. The stronger
cells are producing locally heavy downpours with rainfall rates of 1
to 2 inches per hour. Will continue to see convection into the
evening hours as the upper low remains nearly stationary, and
with these rainfall rates and saturated soils localized flooding
is not out of the question. Look for lows tonight in the upper 50s
to lower 60s.

On Thursday, the upper low pulls into northern Arkansas and weakens
to an open wave by afternoon. Once again will see scattered
convection rotating around this low, with an increase in the
afternoon as instability builds. Not expecting any severe weather,
but again like today, localized areas of heavy rain and flash
flooding/flooding will remain possible. The better chances for rain
looks to be over southeast Kansas and the western Missouri on the
back-side of the low. The clouds and rain chances again will keep
highs just in the middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

A 300mb Jet will begin to dive southward from the northern plains
Thursday night and this will finally dislodge the upper low from the
area and begin its eastward transition. This will set the stage for
northwest flow from Friday through the weekend as southeast Kansas
and the Missouri Ozarks will be between the trough over the eastern
conus and a building ridge across the Rockies. As a result, a
pleasant and mainly dry period is expected with highs in the mid
and upper 70s and lows in the 50s to around 60. Cannot totally
rule out the potential for some precipitation given the northwest
flow as any weak ripple could produce a few showers and a couple
of the medium range deterministic models is showing this for late
Saturday into Saturday night, but nothing widespread by any means.

Expanding upper level ride and height rises will keep the quiet
weather in tact from Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures will be
on the upswing with highs by Wednesday topping off in the middle and
perhaps upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

A rather complicated forecast for the TAF period. Upper low over
eastern Arkansas is resulting in showers across portions of the
area rotating across southern Missouri, along with some isolated
thunderstorms. These will likely impact the terminals off and on
into the early evening hours, before loss of heating dissipates
them. MVFR flight conditions will rise into the VFR category
outside of the rain but remain MVFR/IFR within any showers or
storms. Later tonight could see some fog develop once again with
IFR flight conditions quite possible from 10Z-14Z or so.
Otherwise, scattered showers will be possible through the
overnight hours ad more likely THursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Raberding

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
329 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-282030-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
329 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Scattered thunderstorms are expected through tonight, but should
  diminish as the sun sets. Local heavy rain will be possible with
  the thunderstorms which may lead to some localized flooding.
  Widespread flooding is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

  Additional scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday
  into Thursday evening. No severe storms are expected, however
  some heavy rain may cause some localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Raberding

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
222 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LEBANON                 37.68N 92.66W
05/27/2020  E1.44 INCH       LACLEDE            MO   PUBLIC

            RAIN TOTAL IN LAST 90 MINUTES.

&&

CKR

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