Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
614 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

Convection has started developing over the area over the western
CWA on the edge of higher 850 mb winds out of the south-southwest.
On a regional level, a thunderstorm complex was pushing southeast
out of southwest Kansas and into western Oklahoma. There are a lot
of mesoscale features at play with todays forecast which will make
things messy. Main focus will be trying to sort through all the
differing solutions for potential severe storms this afternoon and
evening. Secondary focus will be with additional rain chances
later this weekend into next week which may lead to flooding
concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

We are expecting the current convection to continue through the
rest of the night sliding to the east. This convection is not
expected to be severe, but will have some lightning and heavy rain
associated with it. Some training cells may produce a localized
flood risk.

MCS to the west will most likely shift into the area by 12-14z and
then shift east across the area through the day. Main
redevelopment in the afternoon/evening will be possible if the
convection can clear out and instability can redevelop. The main
shortwave will be swinging northeast from southeast Kansas and
into northern MO by 06z with ridging building in behind this
shortwave during the overnight. Believe precipitation chances will
decrease significantly after midnight.

Models develop some decent instability in the southwest portion of
the CWA later in the afternoon in the wake of this mornings
conveciton along with some 35-45 kts of 0-6km bulk shear. The most
intense instability will remain southwest of the area and we are
expecting the better severe weather risk there. However, we can
still get some strong to severe storms if the instability
materializes this afternoon/evening for some large hail and
damaging winds.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

Not a big focus for thunderstorm organization Saturday into
Saturday night in the wake of the shortwave, however can't rule
out some diurnal convection given the instability. As the next
wave approaches from the west on Sunday, our chances of
thunderstorms will be on the increase along with the risk of heavy
rain and higher flood potential. With a strong upper ridge setting
up in the east, a low will likely close off to the west of the
area with several waves of energy cycling the low through our CWA
from Monday night through at least Thursday. With the recent heavy
rains from last week, we may be looking at a flood potential again
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

For the 12z TAFS...convection has been ongoing for much of the
overnight hours, mainly affecting the BBG/SGF sites so far. Will
also be affecting the JLN site shortly as newly developing
convection out ahead of the main MCS to the west begins to move
in. Most of this activity will affect the areas this morning.
There is the possibility of redevelopment later this afternoon
ahead of an MCV. Generally expecting MVFR and IFR conditions
within the convection and MVFR to VFR outside of the convection.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
355 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-230900-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
355 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected today into
  tonight. If enough instability can develop this afternoon after
  this mornings rounds of thunderstorms, then some severe storms
  will be possible by the late afternoon into the evening. Large
  hail to the size of golf balls, damaging wind in excess of 60
  mph and isolated tornadoes will all be possible. The best chance
  of severe storms will be over the southwestern portion of
  Missouri into southeast Kansas.

  In addition to the potential of severe weather, the several
  rounds of thunderstorms will likey produce heavy rain and if
  thunderstorms can train across the same locations, localized
  flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

  There will be at least a chance of thunderstorms on nearly a
  daily basis from the weekend into the first half of next week.
  Heavy rain and flooding will also be possible as the ground
  remains fairly saturated from the heavy rainfall next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
942 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 AM     FLOOD            NEOSHO                  36.87N 94.37W
05/22/2020                   NEWTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MCCORD AND SPRING STREETS CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING.

&&

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
945 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     FLOOD            BRANSON                 36.64N 93.22W
05/22/2020                   TANEY              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LOW WATER CROSSINGS CLOSED ON FALL CREEK
            ROAD. SEVERAL OTHER CITY STREETS COVERED DUE
            TO RAINFALL.

&&

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
952 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 AM     LIGHTNING        3 SSE ATLAS             37.05N 94.38W
05/22/2020                   JASPER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LIGHTNING STRIKE TO A HOUSE/GARAGE RESULTING
            IN A FIRE.

&&

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
953 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     HAIL             ROCKY COMFORT           36.75N 94.09W
05/22/2020  NAN INCH         NEWTON             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
955 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0951 AM     HAIL             ROCKY COMFORT           36.75N 94.09W
05/22/2020  E1.00 INCH       NEWTON             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            UP TO QUARTER SIZE NOW.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
957 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     HAIL             ROCKY COMFORT           36.75N 94.09W
05/22/2020  U0.88 INCH       NEWTON             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM ROCKY
            COMFORT TO INCLUDE MAGNITUDE.

&&

ANGLE