River Flood Warning 27, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
545 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 127 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2020

Forecast looks on track for moderate to heavy rain later today
into Monday as an impressive storm system impacts the region.
Models did shift slightly north with the heaviest precipitation,
so the Flood Watch was expanded to include all counties in the
CWA. Generally looking at 1-2" of rain area-wide, with potential
for locally more or less depending on convective element
placement.

Due to wet antecedent conditions, above average streamflows, and
the lack of vegetation in the winter time, flooding is expected on
some of the more flood prone roads and highways.

Some thunder is possible, but most will probably not hear thunder
given limited instability. Will have to watch southern portions of
the CWA Monday afternoon and evening if enough instability can
develop for some stronger storms, but at this time it does not
appear likely.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 127 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2020

Some light wrap around precip will exit the area Monday, leaving a
short break in precip ahead of a clipper that brings precip later
Tue into early Wed. Light rain showers should turn to snow
Tuesday night, but precip amounts look very light and models have
been trending lighter. Could see a dusting of snow in some spots,
with minimal to no travel impacts.

Highs Tuesday will be in the 40s for the most part, cooling to
highs in the 30s on Wednesday. The forecast is dry for most of
Wednesday through next weekend, but can't completely rule out some
light rain/snow showers late this week as models suggest some
shortwave energy transiting the area with NW flow aloft. Highs
will be in the 40s Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, then in the 50s
on Sunday. Lows will be in the 20s Wednesday night through Friday
night, then gradually warming.

Relatively decent model agreement showing long wave troughing
that results in additional rainfall toward the middle of next
week, but confidence is pretty low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 536 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2020

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Rain is spreading/or has spread into the
area. Ceilings will lower into the IFR or low end MVFR cat over
the next few hours as low pressure over the TX Panhandle moves
into/through far southern MO by the end of the period. Winds winds
will shift to the west as the sfc low passes by late in the
period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...DSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
213 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-242015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
213 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Rain will gradually increase today and become widespread across
the region this evening. Rain and even a few thunderstorms will
continue through tonight and linger into Monday. Flooding will
become likely late tonight and Monday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The lack of vegetation in the winter, combined with wet soil
conditions and elevated streamflows will lead to an elevated risk
for flooding through much of Monday. Rain will exit the region
Monday evening. Storm total rainfall amounts will range from one
to two inches. Additional thunderstorms will be possible Monday.

A second storm system will approach the Ozarks by Tuesday evening
and night. Light snow and flurries will be possible, giving some
locations a dusting of accumulation. The best chances for a
dusting of snow will occur up in central Missouri.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus