River Flood Warning 105, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
531 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2020

...Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 125 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2020

Cool and rainy conditions are occurring across the area this
afternoon. Drizzle or light rain are occurring with pockets of
heavier showers and a few isolated rumbles of thunder at times
currently across the area. As the upper level trough continues to
approach the area from the west we will see more bands of heavier
rain and a few storms develop across the area this afternoon and
evening. Fog and the rain will also reduce visibility at times
too. The trough will track across the region tonight as the rain
will end from west to east overnight into early Sunday. A few
lingering showers may remain across south central Missouri Sunday
morning but should end fairly quickly Sunday morning.

Low clouds and cool conditions will occur across the area on
Sunday as highs only warm into the middle 40s to around 50.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 125 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2020

Cooler conditions will occur into Monday as highs in the lower 50s
are expected on Monday.

An upper level trough will then dig into the southwestern U.S.
early next week, then will track across the Plains through the
middle of next week. Ahead of the trough an upper level ridge will
build across the region. Southerly winds will increase across the
area on Tuesday as gusts up to around 30 mph will occur at times.
These gusty winds will usher slightly warmer temperatures into
the area with highs in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Moisture
will also start to return, but the area will be dry ahead and with
temperatures just warming around 60 and the moisture return
starting that morning instability will likely be limited. As the
trough moves across the region shear will increase across the
area. A front will move across the area associated with the trough
which will be the focus for showers and storms Tuesday afternoon
into the overnight hours. If instability can develop, there will
be a strong to severe risk but this will be dependent on enough
moisture return and instability developing across the area. Again
at this time this appears to be limited so not advertising severe
weather at this time due to the lack of expected instability.

Temperatures will not cool much behind this system with highs in
the 60s expected on Thursday. Another system will then move on to
the west coast late next week. There is a large spread on how this
system will behave, some models keep the wave open and move it
progressively across the area as others close it off which will
have it digging further to the south and being slower to move
across the region. This will have big impacts on temperatures and
rain chances next weekend. At this time have stuck with the NBM
values with highs and rain chances for next week, but there is
still uncertainty on the track which could impact these some.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2020

Observations show a surface low pressure over northeastern
Oklahoma with a stationary front stretching across far northern
Arkansas. Rain showers and fog will continue to impact the
Missouri Ozarks to the north of this system the rest of this
evening into early tonight. Rain will then end from west to east
overnight into early Sunday morning as the system begins pushing
eastwards. May see a few rumbles of thunder at times, but
coverage/chances are too low to include in the TAFs.

IFR visibilities and IFR to LIFR ceilings will continue overnight
into early Sunday morning even after the rain exits to our east,
but should begin to improve to MVFR conditions by the mid to late
morning and back to VFR near or shortly after the end of the TAF
period Sunday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Rothstein

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