Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Springfield, MO

Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Polk County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO

097 
WWUS83 KSGF 122059
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Springfield MO
359 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066>068-077>080-088>091-093>095-101>104-122200-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-201012T2100Z/
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Vernon-St. Clair-Hickory-Barton-Cedar-
Polk-Dallas-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Newton-Lawrence-Christian-
McDonald-Barry-Stone-Taney-
359 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 066, 067, 068, 073, 077, 078, 079, 080, 088, 
089, 090, 091, 093, 094, 095, 097, 101, 101, 102, 103, AND 104...

Relative humidity values will remain low through the evening
however the wind speeds will begin to diminish therefore the Red
Flag Warning will expire.

$$

Burchfield

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1236 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

Strong pressure rises behind an advancing cold front across Kansas
is resulting in strong northwest winds in its wake. Gusts to over 60
mph were reported earlier last evening across central Kansas. The
front is now entering our far western Missouri counties and gusts
have come down somewhat. By 12Z this morning the front should be
aligned from around Cassville to Versailles line and exit the
eastern Ozarks by 18Z. There will a couple hour window right
behind the front of gusts to 40 to 50 mph, especially over
southeast Kansas and western Missouri. This aligns well with the
current wind advisory and will monitor observations if an
expansion is needed. Otherwise, gusts are not expected this high
further east and should remain below advisory criteria. In
addition, a narrow band of lower clouds will accompany the front
and cannot rule out a few sprinkles, but should be mainly a dry
frontal passage.

Although winds diminishing in it wake this afternoon, drier air will
result in lower relative humidities and given the dry conditions
there will be elevated fire weather concerns. (See fire weather
sections below). Look for highs this afternoon just

High pressure will build from Oklahoma into Missouri tonight and
with the cooler and drier air in place will see lows in the mid to
upper 40s under clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

A west to northwest upper level flow will dominate this period.
Above normal temperatures along with dry conditions will prevail
Tuesday and Wednesday, with Wednesday being the warmest day with
breezy southerly winds and highs in the mid 80s. Both days will
likely see elevated fire weather conditions during the afternoon
hours. A stronger shortwave trough will push a strong cold front
through the area Wednesday night. Again lack of moisture with this
front will continue the dry conditions. More fall like weather
will settle in behind the front with daily highs in the 60s from
Thursday through Sunday and overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.
Will have to watch for more frost potential towards the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

Clear skies and VFR conditions will continue through Tuesday
morning. Brisk and gusty northwest surface winds will gradually
diminish this afternoon before turning around to the south late
tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

A mostly dry frontal passage will occur early Monday morning.
Winds will become gusty out of the northwest through most of the
morning, before beginning to relax some by afternoon. HREF
probabilities of RH less than 30% are high (greater than 60%)
however winds (surface and 20 foot) will be less during this time
therefore we should remain just below Red Flag Warning criteria.
None the less it will be a strongly elevated fire weather day
Monday with outdoor burning discouraged except for experienced
fire personnel.

While most of the week will experience elevated fire weather days
in the afternoons, Wednesday may be another day to watch given
what will likely be a very warm day. There is the potential for
highs to be warmer and/or humidity to be lower. Surface winds
will be gusty Sunday out of the southwest.

No appreciable rain chances are expected the next seven days.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Schaumann
FIRE WEATHER...Raberding

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
848 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-131400-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
848 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.
  Elevated fire weather risk.

DISCUSSION...

Wind gusts up to 35 mph can be expected through early afternoon.
Winds will begin to diminish by mid-afternoon.

Gusty winds and low humidity behind a cold front will lead to
elevated fire weather conditions today across the entire area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Elevated fire weather conditions will persist through the rest of
the work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schaumann