Flash Flood Watch 10, NWS Springfield, MO

Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howell County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Polk County, MO, Shannon County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
238 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

Upper level ridge axis remains over the Rockies early this morning
with a closed low over northeast Canada. In between was a slow
moving upper level trough with the axis over west central MO into
southeast Kansas. A deformation band of heavy rain has been
affecting parts of west central MO for quite a while now with
flash flooding the result. A stationary frontal boundary was
located over southern MO with a frontal wave over southwest MO.

Somewhat lower PW values over southern MO at the moment, but still
fairly high at around 1.7 in. However, a higher axis of 1.9 to 2.0
in was near the upper level trough axis from west central MO into
southeast KS.

Forecast concerns for today will be with heavy rain and the
potential of flash flooding over southern MO as this trough axis
shifts southeast through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

For today, we are going to try our luck with another flash flood
watch over southern MO. the bulk of yesterdays rain remained
further north, however this upper level trough axis is expected to
slowly shift southeast through the area today. PW values will
increase again to around 1.8 to 1.95 in. Frontal wave will shift
east across the frontal boundary over southern MO/northern AR
today. Despite the low end instability in the area, there will be
plenty of forcing and moisture along with the slow moving
convection and likely training storms to justify another flash
flood watch over southern MO. Overall, we are expecting 1-2 inches
of rain along and south of US 60, however higher pockets of 2 to 4
inches will be possible in areas where storms train across the
same areas. Because of the rain and clouds expected today,
temperatures will likely remain in the 70s to around 80 for a
high.

The back edge of the precipitation will move from west to east
during the afternoon and evening, with the heaviest of the rain
ending by mid evening. Some lingering lighter showers may continue
into the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

Much drier air will move in behind the upper trough, with the low
moving into the OH valley. With a pretty amplified ridge remaining
anchored out west, we will remain in north to northwest flow aloft
through the weekend into the first part of next week. This will
keep temperatures quite a bit cooler than we have been over the
past couple of weeks with highs generally in the 70s and low 80s
through Wednesday. The ridge will flatten out by the middle of
next week and we'll start to see more of a moderating temperature
trend for the latter half of the work week. Being in the northwest
flow aloft will bring a series of upper level shortwaves into the
area, so we can't completely rule out rain chances next week,
especially on Sunday when the first such wave moves through.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

Lowering ceilings will move in from the northwest tonight into
Friday as a trough moves through, bringing IFR to potentially LIFR
conditions. Ceilings improve at KSGF and KBBG late in the TAF
period, and at KBBG after the end of this TAF period.
Precipitation coverage will increase later tonight into Friday and
should be mostly rain but can't completely rule out some thunder
at times.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Titus

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