Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Springfield, MO

441 
WGUS73 KSGF 041528
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1028 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

MOC131-141-041800-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-200704T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Miller MO-Morgan MO-
1028 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN MILLER AND EAST CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTIES...

At 1027 AM CDT, The Department of Transportation reported heavy rain 
falling in  Radar estimates 2 to 4 inches of rain have fallen. Flash 
flooding is already occurring. The Missouri Department of 
Transportation reported a road closure at Buisness 54 AND Highway 87 
near Blythes Creek due to over a foot of water over the roadway.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

SOURCE...Public.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Eldon...                          St. Elizabeth...
Barnett...                        Eugene...
Olean...                          Etterville...
Marys Home...                     Aurora Springs...

This warning includes but is not limited to the following low water
crossings...
Highway 52 at Tavern Creek northeast of Saint Elizabeth.

Additional rainfall amounts up a half inch are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3843 9262 3843 9241 3834 9240 3834 9229
      3832 9225 3834 9222 3833 9219 3826 9219
      3827 9262 3834 9281 3850 9272

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

Perez

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
652 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

A few showers continued to linger over portions of the Mark Twain
National forest early this morning. This activity should
diminish, over the next hour or two.

A stalled but diffuse frontal boundary remains along the Arkansas
state line and a weakening MVC was over western Missouri. These
will bring the potential to aid in storm development later this
morning as day time heating allows instability to increase. Model
CAPE values are in the 2000-3000 j/kg range with ample moisture
available in the regions soundings. Shear remains weak with any
storms that develop likely being pulse in nature.

CAMS models were more bullish on convective activity compared to
the current radar trends,however, with the stalled front, MVC and
instability, storm development is expected mainly west of Highway
5 through this morning and into early afternoon. An isolated
strong storm or two may occur but severe storms are not expected
with the lack of shear. More likely with storms today will be
brief heavy rainfall with rain rate from 1-2 inches per hour in
the strongest storms

Cloud cover is expected to remain over the region through the
day, which will aid to keep the afternoon highs on the "cool" side
in the lower to middle 80s this afternoon.

Storm coverage, through not cloud cover, is expected to diminish
by this evening which should allow most in the Ozarks to be able
to enjoy area Independence day celebrations.

Clouds will remain overnight with temperatures in the middle 60s
to around 70 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

For Sunday, clouds will slowly diminish through the day with some
showers possible across far southern portions of the Ozarks
though most locations will remain dry. Temperatures will be more
seasonable with highs in the middle 80s.

The seasonable temperatures will remain into the start of next
week though temperatures will warm into the lower 90s again by
the end of the week.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible
on a daily basis next week as daytime heating allows for storm
development.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

Scattered cloud cover and showers this morning will increase in
coverage with some storms developing into the early afternoon.
Where storms develop, flight conditions will fall to MVFR to
briefly IFR, otherwise VFR flight conditions can be expectyed.
Surface winds will be generally light and variable.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
543 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-051045-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
543 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

 Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
through this afternoon. A few strong storms will be possible with
the main risk being cloud to ground lightning strikes and locally
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Very warm and humid conditions will persist through next week.
Isolated to scattered storms will then be possible daily through
next week mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Hatch