Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
641 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms has developed
during the predawn hours across northeastern Arkansas and south-
central Missouri. This activity is associated with isentropic
upglide on the nose of a weak low-level jet. Inspection of RAP
soundings indicates that elevated parcels (900-825 mb) are nearly
uncapped.

As we head towards sunrise, this activity should continue to lift
north and may increase in areal coverage. With PWATs exceeding
1.50" across south-central Missouri, we will need to monitor for a
flash flooding threat with any training cells.

This early morning activity will then set the tone for today.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms appear likely from
later this morning into this afternoon, especially near and east
of the U.S. 65 corridor. Convective temperatures across this
region will only be in the middle 70s with highs expected to be in
the 75-77 degree range.

Less coverage of convection is initially expected back towards
I-49 as mid-level temperatures will be a bit warmer with
convective temperatures closer to 80 degrees. Highs across this
region should approach 80, but may fall just short. However, the
approach of an upper level trough axis from the west should be
enough of a trigger for showers and thunderstorms as we get into
this afternoon across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas.

We will have to continue watching the hydro situation closely
today with very wet antecedent conditions in place. PWATs will
continue to increase throughout the day with values of 1.50" to
1.75" east of the I-49 corridor. Localized flash flooding will be
possible in areas that see training and/or multiple rounds of
thunderstorms.

The threat for severe storms looks pretty nil at this point given
rather weak deep layer shear. Even from a pulse severe standpoint,
the potential for wet or hybrid microbursts looks poor with
forecast RAP/NAM moisture and CAPE profiles.

The potential for showers and storms will then continue into
tonight as that upper level trough axis slowly moves east across
the Ozarks. We will again need to watch the hydro situation with
relatively high PWATs remaining over the region. Lows will be in
the lower to middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

A cold front will then push east across the Missouri Ozarks
Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will end from west to
east with the passing front, with northwesterly winds ushering in
a cooler and drier airmass. We stuck fairly close to the model
blend for highs with most areas warming into the lower or middle
70s.

A much needed period of dry weather is then on tap from Sunday
night through much of next work week as an upper level ridge of
high pressure builds over the Plains. Temperatures will be below
normal to start off the week as a closed low sets up over the Ohio
Valley and keeps us in a weakly cyclonic northwesterly flow
aloft.

Temperatures will slowly warm throughout the week as that ridge
slowly works east. Highs near normal are expected to finish out
the week. Our next chance for rain may not arrive until late next
week as the northern extent of that ridge gets broken down and we
get into a more southwesterly flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

Ceilings across southern Missouri will be variable this morning.
IFR and MVFR will remain around Springfield and Branson while
Joplin will primarily see VFR. There will be scattered showers and
thunderstorm activity also this morning. MVFR and brief IFR can be
expected with heavier showers.

The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will then increase as we
get into this afternoon and tonight. MVFR ceilings are primarily
expected this afternoon and this evening, however IFR
visibilities will accompany thunderstorms.

IFR probabilities (both ceilings and visibilities) will then
increase overnight as an upper level storm system approaches from
the southwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
714 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171215-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
714 AM CDT Sat May 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated fog risk.

DISCUSSION...

Patchy fog will persist through mid-morning before dissipating.

Residual flooding will continue into tonight along area rivers
and streams. Do not drive through flood waters.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected
today and tonight. Cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy
rainfall will be the primary potential hazards. Flash flooding
will be possible in locations that receive multiple rounds of
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The threat for thunderstorms will end from west to east across
the
outlook area on Sunday as a cold front passes through the region.
Cloud to ground lightning will be the primary potential hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schaumann

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
919 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W SPARTA              37.00N 93.13W
05/16/2020                   CHRISTIAN          MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: RIVER/CREEK OVERFLOWING;.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
951 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W KELTNER             36.97N 92.98W
05/16/2020                   CHRISTIAN          MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ON T HIGHWAY ALONG SWAN
            CREEK WERE FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE. MULTIPLE
            PICTURES SHOWED HIGH WATER OVER THE ROADS
            BETWEEN OLDFIELD AND KELTNER.

&&

FEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1037 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N GARRISON            36.86N 93.02W
05/16/2020                   CHRISTIAN          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THE BAR K RANCH CAMPGROUND WAS EVACUATED DUE
            TO FLOODING. SEVERAL CAMPERS HAD TO BE MOVED
            AS WATERS ROSE VERY QUICKLY.

&&

FEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1039 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E SPARTA              37.00N 93.06W
05/16/2020                   CHRISTIAN          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 125 EAST OF
            SPARTA THAT DO NOT NORMALLY FLOOD WERE
            IMPASSABLE. THIS INCLUDED THE INTERSECTIONS
            OF HIGHWAY 125 AND JENKINS AND BLACKBERRY
            ROADS.

&&

FEH