Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Springfield, MO

448 
WGUS73 KSGF 241443
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
943 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

KSC011-037-MOC011-217-241453-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0020.000000T0000Z-200324T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bourbon KS-Crawford KS-Barton MO-Vernon MO-
943 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BOURBON...NORTHEASTERN
CRAWFORD...NORTHWESTERN BARTON AND SOUTHERN VERNON COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flash flooding is no longer expected to 
pose a threat. A Flood Advisory remains in effect. Please continue 
to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3798 9406 3767 9407 3747 9485 3767 9486

$$

Terry

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
647 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

Primary concern is in the short term with strong to severe storms
tonight into Tuesday morning and associated flooding potential.

The combination of a shortwave, surface low, and strong mid and low
level jet dynamics will lead to continued thunderstorm development
upstream (already seeing convection over western Kansas as of
midnight). These storms will move east into the area over the next
few hours and linger into Tuesday (exiting the western areas by noon
and the eastern areas by mid-afternoon). Storms will be elevated
given that we are north of the warm front with a pronounced
inversion, making hail the primary threat but can't rule out an
isolated damaging wind threat. Greatest severe threat will be over
the southwestern CWA from far SE Kansas through extreme SW Missouri
where the steepest mid-level lapse rates are expected. Those lapse
rates and ample CAPE in the hail growth layer will be supportive of
hail as large as golf balls.

The flooding threat will cover the entire CWA. While some small
portion of the CWA may not see as much rain depending on exact track
and evolution of convection, much of the area should see at least
0.75" per latest model guidance, with potential for 1-2" over a
large portion of the area. Always tricky to pinpoint with
convection, but with saturated soils will have to watch hydro pretty
closely.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 1217 AM CDT
Tue Mar 24 2020

Warmer and dry weather are expected for Wed and Thu with highs Wed
in the mid 60s to low 70s and in the mid 70s to around 80 for
Thu.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday night into Saturday
as a deepening wave moves through the central CONUS. Sunday through
Tuesday then looks dry for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

Numerous showers and thunderstorms currently across the area will
shift east, ending at all sites by 18Z (earlier at KJLN). Fog is
then expected tonight into Wednesday morning, especially at KSGF
and KBBG, and to a lesser extent KJLN.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
727 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-251230-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
727 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated fog risk.

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the area
this morning. The severe thunderstorm potential has decreased
however a few storms could produce pea size hail and winds to 40
mph. Cloud to ground lightning will also be possible this morning.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.75-1.5" will be possible with
this round of storms this morning, especially along and south of
Interstate 44. Minor flooding will be possible given saturated
soils.

Fog may reduce visibilities below one mile tonight across the
area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night into
Saturday. There is some potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield